tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9930992475922344612024-02-19T02:59:43.179-05:00Garen Wisner"Be Well, Do Good Work, and Keep in Touch" Garrison KeillorGaren Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.comBlogger1246125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-23701296174568703112023-10-16T17:26:00.002-04:002023-10-16T18:19:09.800-04:00Moral Speed Limits<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; font-family: "times new roman", "new york", times, serif; font-size: 18px;">What if there was a Speedometer Constitutional Amendment for the right to drive at any speed using “evidence-based standards requiring the least restrictive means within human survival viability”.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; font-family: "times new roman", "new york", times, serif; font-size: 18px; outline: none;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; font-family: "times new roman", "new york", times, serif; font-size: 18px;">How would you vote?</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkuMBOsQ88fM6M9s00Q4tOnCbKhh-UMo82eKJ3KyxT6BTGVq6qrsDOwxtIgCCbNtNnF0-3Jq1RZ0jIa-HGExJAYZI3z9yTyQO_kgp5VqEp6rK1J50piRztf6qiSjWSvkYFNxNwXZGkY4TDIEcT4pUOW3pHeU5fN8AGddJ3tCkA-V8TihsRdYu-ZEj7bjM/s532/UnlimitedSpeedLimitSign.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="532" data-original-width="410" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkuMBOsQ88fM6M9s00Q4tOnCbKhh-UMo82eKJ3KyxT6BTGVq6qrsDOwxtIgCCbNtNnF0-3Jq1RZ0jIa-HGExJAYZI3z9yTyQO_kgp5VqEp6rK1J50piRztf6qiSjWSvkYFNxNwXZGkY4TDIEcT4pUOW3pHeU5fN8AGddJ3tCkA-V8TihsRdYu-ZEj7bjM/s320/UnlimitedSpeedLimitSign.png" width="247" /></a></div><p><br /></p>As a moderate Libertarian (if that category exists), I have always claimed that morality ultimately can't be legislated. Consequently, in matters of drugs, guns, and sex, I talk a good game of lassie faire - keep the government out of my life and others also. <p></p><p>But the "rubber has now hit the road" <a href="https://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/getattachment/cf27c10f-b153-4731-ae9e-e3555a326ed9/The-Right-to-Reproductive-Freedom-with-Protections-for-Health-and-Safety.aspx" target="_blank">The Right to Reproductive Freedom with Protections for Health and Safety</a> proposed Ohio Constitutional Amendment now being voted upon (early voting in Ohio has already started) mandates that I declare my belief, values, political viewpoint, and moral compass. </p><p>A.S. has motivated me to research the daylights out of this issue. Pouring through the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/04/26/nearly-a-year-after-roes-demise-americans-views-of-abortion-access-increasingly-vary-by-where-they-live/" target="_blank">Pew Research Views of Abortion</a>, reading the actual <a href="https://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/getattachment/cf27c10f-b153-4731-ae9e-e3555a326ed9/The-Right-to-Reproductive-Freedom-with-Protections-for-Health-and-Safety.aspx" target="_blank">legal jargon of the amendment</a>, researching the <a href="https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/download?key=11602&format=pdf" target="_blank">Heartbeat Law</a> now being litigated in Ohio, and reading the book "The Turnaway Study" by Diana Greene Foster PhD. This even motivated me to send the WSJ a letter to the editor about the issue. </p><p>The political war is now in full gear with outside money trying to influence the Ohio vote. The WSJ (10/3/23) has done a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/us-news/abortion-state-guide-laws-bf5072da?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1" target="_blank">state-by-state analysis</a>:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk_xSTXIvvDWQ7Ex4rj_SXKSSy-J3Z4t39Xww8_ke2ToqkhYtSbtbY_pBbI1azU_xUUq28HjD569REfwaiyI1hrj5z-H6GYpShT2QQcwXClN24XbpwIJbeCcU_13AFiQp2HuCIm4Awj7aVWATTnKg9Pek1enw8u743layYpEOoMxVe6W89kwcacfBonVg/s617/AbortionWSJ_StatebyState.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="617" data-original-width="600" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk_xSTXIvvDWQ7Ex4rj_SXKSSy-J3Z4t39Xww8_ke2ToqkhYtSbtbY_pBbI1azU_xUUq28HjD569REfwaiyI1hrj5z-H6GYpShT2QQcwXClN24XbpwIJbeCcU_13AFiQp2HuCIm4Awj7aVWATTnKg9Pek1enw8u743layYpEOoMxVe6W89kwcacfBonVg/w389-h400/AbortionWSJ_StatebyState.png" title="Source - WSJ 10/3/23" width="389" /></a></div><p>So - what's my conclusion? I am now "forced" to vote. Like other Ohioans - only the ballot box will know. But regardless of the November 2023 outcome - this moral issue of our time will not be resolved, nor will legislation permanently change moral behavior.</p><p>As I drive the roadways I see the legal signs, my car tells me the speed limit, I know the risks of speeding, and I know the consequences. The law sets boundaries, and we are provided the "dignity of risk". </p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-77282436347220016792023-10-14T16:18:00.001-04:002023-10-14T16:18:41.905-04:00Grandparent Dividends<p>I'm only 6 months late in blogging about the second Grandparent dividend that was payable on 4/5/2023 - the delivery date of Wesley Allen Robinson. Today was a bonus day when Jenna brought over "Baby Wes" for a visit. I quickly had to find all the infant devices (e.g. the over the door molding bouncer) out of storage. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK-mtBSnahOsGv9uCOfhUVCY2o7dxbY_inSirOlOAzEMfKBx2vKu-xM-kaWHq2nu4a5bBqIfpKPSmyG7q_Vlf3eTBEt-_vjP2nR_q9BpEMy3bY5aWF90RbA9aGlmG_EvB60Tk9kZLZ9JqOnzT5lRt1J3J7NvQuQmpIVKXToeZq75S7VpAp6p8r-2YfpAs/s1080/WesleyAllenRobinson_6mo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="1080" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK-mtBSnahOsGv9uCOfhUVCY2o7dxbY_inSirOlOAzEMfKBx2vKu-xM-kaWHq2nu4a5bBqIfpKPSmyG7q_Vlf3eTBEt-_vjP2nR_q9BpEMy3bY5aWF90RbA9aGlmG_EvB60Tk9kZLZ9JqOnzT5lRt1J3J7NvQuQmpIVKXToeZq75S7VpAp6p8r-2YfpAs/s320/WesleyAllenRobinson_6mo.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p>Born 4/5/2023 at 9:42am 8lbs 10 oz and 21.25 inches, Wesley Allen Robinson has doubled the grandparent equity account in a short two years from Teddy's arrival (4/13/2021). Two boys at about two years apart is what my Mother experienced with D'Lane and myself 69 years ago. </p><p>Watching Jenna and Paul navigate a "one on one" strategy gives me some insight into what my parents were up against in raising D'Lane and me. I can now relate to Wes who will be faced with a lifetime of hand me downs. </p><p>A.M. was totally correct when he told me that he had "underestimated the Grandpa thing". But now with 5 months of experience interacting with two grandsons simultaneously, I can accurately say that it drains my energy more than double. </p><p>With such great ROI on family relationships, we have now reinvested the dividends into a Van for family vacations.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-2506287217122780662022-12-05T21:40:00.005-05:002022-12-06T20:56:11.579-05:00Wordle Waste or Wonder?<p>Ellen knowing my daily obsession with Wordle, gave me a book for my 68th birthday - <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Wordle-Challenge-Puzzles-anywhere-anytime/dp/0711280401/ref=sr_1_1?crid=PCOKQNLT3HOB&keywords=wordle+challenge&qid=1670294086&sprefix=wordle+challenge%2Caps%2C85&sr=8-1" target="_blank">"Wordle Challenge - 500 puzzles to do anywhere, anytime"</a>. She introduced Wordle to me a year ago after a visit with her Uncle D'Lane and Aunt Ann (Ann must be the actual player). Her hint was that Ann (the librarian) uses the word ASILE as the first seed word. I used that word religiously until T. H. (Vistage Vet) suggested the best seed word is TRAIN. I'm amazed that I didn't try to research this based on frequency. </p><p>I must admit that TRAIN (followed by CLOSE) has been the most successful for me lately. Today, I did not do particularly well as the picture shows. However, it does reflect my strategy to just "go for it" when I have 4 of five letters and multiple word choices versus playing conservatively to uncover the most likely fifth letter. This would be an interesting statistical profiling of risk takers.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihf9enfWSEOk6ltjtX4zw8OmNMjzLGUDXsU_fYLl_eHybarqj6gw9pGBwVs_k9vVYg7da32d3BtDekIPmDbjv0-_RQw2GIUg-YaXLUe9fFwrjEQVUw00GOS11j_mMWs69Y0WT_oTElPkLobdNKXM961bbVuzMo9RsYOxAOEYzoNmTLkp3IUlIjLK1a/s1040/Wordle2022-12-05%20203059.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="681" data-original-width="1040" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihf9enfWSEOk6ltjtX4zw8OmNMjzLGUDXsU_fYLl_eHybarqj6gw9pGBwVs_k9vVYg7da32d3BtDekIPmDbjv0-_RQw2GIUg-YaXLUe9fFwrjEQVUw00GOS11j_mMWs69Y0WT_oTElPkLobdNKXM961bbVuzMo9RsYOxAOEYzoNmTLkp3IUlIjLK1a/w400-h263/Wordle2022-12-05%20203059.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;">I haven't tried to read all about the optimal strategies or use Wordlebot to understand the best possible starting word. However, an interesting mathematical article caught my attention - </span><a href="https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-math-behind-wordle-guesses-20221202/" style="text-align: left;" target="_blank">"The Math Behind Wordle Guesses"</a><span style="text-align: left;">. </span></div><p>Based on this article, I may try to start with the seed word RAISE. The article states that there are 2,309 answers in the Wordle domain. There are other geeky questions to ponder - "Is it better to get a yellow or green reveal?" </p><p>In a "comparisonitis" world, I must confess I did try to look up the average distribution of a Wordle player (even with cheaters) to see how I compare. Yes, you can find anything on the internet <a href="https://nerdschalk.com/average-wordle-score-and-stats-what-are-they-and-how-to-find-some/#:~:text=The%20quickest%20way%20to%20track%20how%20many%20attempts,the%20top%205%20percentile%20among%20the%20Wordle%20players." target="_blank">"Average Wordle Score"</a> (see Wordle #534 for Dec. 5, 2022). And who believes that 2% of the 23,153 players (2,200 hard mode) guessed WOKEN on the first try?</p><p>And if that isn't enough, there is a <a href="https://youtu.be/D2RpdlFAV2E" target="_blank">youtube guy</a> (with 333 plays) that guesses each of the words interactively each day that you can watch. I feel a little better that he took 6 tries on WOKEN. </p><p>If this is Wordle 534 of 2,309 possible words, then we are only 23% done. If it is like my obsession playing Words with Friends with Ellen, I may only last for another 100 days. </p><p>A fun daily puzzle that puts boundaries around wasting time :)</p><p>PS - I've decided to switch to "hard mode" (a settings toggle switch) - that requires you use a revealed letter on the next guess. After all I want to be considered a "hard mode" player!</p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-26913034239239155492022-08-07T14:44:00.000-04:002022-08-07T14:44:03.195-04:00Weans - Digging Deep<p> As we discussed folklore, legends and mythology in the Wednesday Men's Bible Study Group 7:15BC, a memory popped into my mind about a High School reading assignment. I described a futuristic story about a discovery of a newspaper fragment in a city dump (sort of like the Dead Sea Scrolls) with the associated misconceived interpretation of the history the artifact partially revealed.</p><p>How ironic how my own memory can distort the actual story that I had read. History is full of misinterpretations by the present artifact found or memory passed on. </p><p>Upon extensive searching the internet, I discovered (and then remembered) the actual short story I was assigned to read. It was a 1956 reprint of a Harpers Magazine article "<a href="http://www.joshpachter.com/pages/weans.pdf" target="_blank">Digging the Weans</a>" by Robert Nathan. That article and others was compiled into a book titled "<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Weans-Robert-Nathan-ebook/dp/B01KUGU5CG/ref=sr_1_2?crid=1TGTXJM3YIIO1&keywords=the+weans&qid=1659896929&sprefix=the+weans%2Caps%2C124&sr=8-2" target="_blank">The Weans</a>". </p><p>An Archaeological Satire: <span style="background-color: white; color: #0f1111; font-family: "Amazon Ember", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><i>Who were these Weans, whose eastern coast was guarded by a ferocious giantess, who worshipped (among others) a root deity and danced when the spirit came down, and whose final destruction and disappearance is shrouded in mystery?</i></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi5PBwtK1sb-U3BpT-YtLCPJ9O-5DfjQcS3RMgHzoyRkc1MmoFQScPqgTw-vJTusWFKSicc9Tzu-pr3T1jiPPefyp21_bG_giNEJC1yZuZHaaPcFTZs2GvTYWC4Fd_lFkozCQfB4BxjY5NL-ElzBpegZyXXeCOwqzUCb6Q4JoGM3-3L_qiuyd1QNEA/s292/StatueofLiberty.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="207" data-original-width="292" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi5PBwtK1sb-U3BpT-YtLCPJ9O-5DfjQcS3RMgHzoyRkc1MmoFQScPqgTw-vJTusWFKSicc9Tzu-pr3T1jiPPefyp21_bG_giNEJC1yZuZHaaPcFTZs2GvTYWC4Fd_lFkozCQfB4BxjY5NL-ElzBpegZyXXeCOwqzUCb6Q4JoGM3-3L_qiuyd1QNEA/s1600/StatueofLiberty.JPG" width="292" /></a></div><br /><p><i>"I have called these people the Weans, because certain archaeological findings incline us to the belief that they called their land the We, or the Us; actually, in the southern part of the continent, the word Weuns (or Weans) does appear, as wen as the glyph for \Vealls, and the word Theyuns."</i></p><p>In the search for Truth - digging deep may not be the only answer. </p><p><br /></p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-86504268900947144062022-02-25T16:30:00.001-05:002022-02-25T16:30:58.158-05:00To Many Twos<p>I missed the ultimate numerology blogging event 2-22-22 at 22:22:22 GMT. What reminded me of it was reading a very interesting book - "VERY, VERY, VERY DREADFUL - The Influenza Pandemic of 1918" by Albert Martin. It interweaves the Spanish Flu History with WWI and referenced the signed armistice that would take effect 11-11-11 (the 11th hour, of the 11th day of the 11th month of the year 1918. </p><p>Amazing trivia was that: </p><p><i>"Many soldiers on both sides, wanted the honor of firing the last shot of the war. As wristwatches ticked off the final minutes, it seemed every gun on the Western Front cut loose at once...Men called this the 'mad moment'. And in that moment, more than 10,000 men including 3,000 Americans, were killed or wounded for nothing" (Source: </i><a href="http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/armistice.htm">Armistice - The End of World War I, 1918 (eyewitnesstohistory.com)</a> and <a href="https://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/world-war-one/november-11th-1918/">November 11th 1918 - History Learning Site</a>)</p><p>What will we remember about 2-22-22 at 22:22:22 GMT? Maybe the beginnings of WWIII?</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhCfyEAh14OIyeDQyNZmi0k22TziHQYV-3g6iee_z9U-ftXWcr1jINhJCCnUYR3c9wDxZ_UbNTQzNoa9NOmg75CzNdie4tmtRhSRsw0m9kaVExU5PpnHfyLL6ucP8C18IKVgibxtwMTmMzeAuOBigk7NPd6A0KkpcWqzB2HQvQyUAjGgJrnEQtNrxDt=s846" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="593" data-original-width="846" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhCfyEAh14OIyeDQyNZmi0k22TziHQYV-3g6iee_z9U-ftXWcr1jINhJCCnUYR3c9wDxZ_UbNTQzNoa9NOmg75CzNdie4tmtRhSRsw0m9kaVExU5PpnHfyLL6ucP8C18IKVgibxtwMTmMzeAuOBigk7NPd6A0KkpcWqzB2HQvQyUAjGgJrnEQtNrxDt=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-18126410911792022132022-01-15T15:15:00.008-05:002022-01-15T15:28:03.043-05:00COVID Resolutions<p> I have already violated one of my New Years Resolutions - "Stop the obsessive data collection of COVID-19 statistics". Alas - last night I am back "on the wagon" and reading all kinds of COVID porn. One of the antivaxer sites was spouting about a CEO of an Indiana Life Insurance company claiming that deaths for 18-64 year old working adults in Indiana have increased 40% and the deaths were not due to COVID. Hmmmmm sounds suspicious. </p><p>My blog is not about fact checking that claim or article - but it launched me back into the CDC death statistics for the USA as a whole. Naturally they lag by a year. Eurika - I found the stats and listened to the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/podcasts/2022/20220107/20220107.htm" target="_blank">podcast</a> and downloaded the pdf report - 2020 FINAL Death Statistics.</p><p>Here is my personal summary. 2020 had 3,383,729 deaths in USA an increase of 528,891 over 2019 - 18.53%. The podcast does a good job of explaining COVID contributing deaths and COVID underlying deaths. Simply put - 2020 COVID Underlying deaths were 350,831 and the third largest contributor to deaths in 2020. So that leaves the question - <b><span style="color: red;">why did 2020 Non COVID deaths increase 170,060 (6%)? </span></b> The same excess is being investigated in the United Kingdom.</p><p>The big swings in prior year death rates may be due to the influenza. There is always the growth rate in deaths that will naturally occur with the aging baby boomers. But this number seems outside of statistical norms. </p><p>The lockdown and fear of hospitals may have kept many people from getting necessary treatment. Homicides in 2020 are at the highest level since 1995 (7.8 per 100,000). Drug overdose for 12 months ending 4/2021 was 100,306 and increase of 28.5% over the 78,056 drug overdoses from the comparable 12 months in last year. <b><u>It CAN NOT be vaccine related</u></b> (as the antivaxers might jump to), since EUA for Pfizer was only authorized 12/11/2020. </p><p>You pick the poison/reason. </p><p>Maybe the will to live is at play when faced with a mountain of suffering all around us and the infinite chasm of despair that lies under a mysterious knock at the door of hope. </p><p>I have blogged before about the statistical correlation of holidays, key dates (birthdays), etc. that once achieved, death occurs. Could our energy to live just petered out?</p><p>At our last Vistage Veteran's monthly meeting we discussed any New Year's Resolutions that each of us had for 2022. We are "old white guys" (and of privilege) and unanimously had no comment. Could that be because of our stage/age in life or might there be a COVID cloud affecting us also?</p><p>From the CDC report life expectancy at birth for 2020 (for males) is 76.3 (so that applies to Teddy). For those age 65 at 2020 the male has 18.2 years and female 20.8 years remaining. I'm older than 65 and let's confidently (or arrogantly) say, as a COVID survivor, I am healthier than average. So assuming I have 16 - 28 years left to live, several questions came to my mind last night:</p><p>(1) What do I want to accomplish in the next 16-28 years? What are my hopes and dreams?</p><p>(2) What did I accomplish in the last two COVID years (2020 and 2021)? </p><p>(3) What didn't I accomplish in the last two COVID years (due to self-inflicted FEAR)? Or how did I let COVID impede my hopes and dreams?</p><p>(4) What will I do differently in COVID 2021 to not let COVID interfere with my hopes and dreams?</p><p>I need some COVID Resolutions :)</p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-27263865724046362452021-12-28T13:38:00.000-05:002021-12-28T13:38:08.382-05:00Christmas 2021<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgH2zk-bZTxNhK8m3c1L012Z1X8zD9nOxqTNZvBpQ04IdVaL6Eazomme54QfyFn1j19scOsahXFSUF3bxU6PPaS2eJqSeszGnpJWOkRlaupPvCk68hbspnXnSLvQ86HayR5VVDQgaOCyFZE77AYPp7K7fDI7Gn2WIxHSAwICxCNHj1tIjncFtGmRCv2=s529" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="382" data-original-width="529" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgH2zk-bZTxNhK8m3c1L012Z1X8zD9nOxqTNZvBpQ04IdVaL6Eazomme54QfyFn1j19scOsahXFSUF3bxU6PPaS2eJqSeszGnpJWOkRlaupPvCk68hbspnXnSLvQ86HayR5VVDQgaOCyFZE77AYPp7K7fDI7Gn2WIxHSAwICxCNHj1tIjncFtGmRCv2=s320" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEidpBhMZZTcaMgtEA_x4u8tQmsvjTf0SyAZ9BRrMKRol2vARITpSQThH9xJaJBFXU1g7NqCkye_Y6_aBdWwIUT0EkfzA0NASNb7FLuT8vt6-RH8cxfyds7lZbwSfL9bYCU5qbmGfyOHJVYc8LA0tNSB_wuGjKdiUV_9el7LaIO95N63hvMMdr1czPWi=s387" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="387" data-original-width="340" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEidpBhMZZTcaMgtEA_x4u8tQmsvjTf0SyAZ9BRrMKRol2vARITpSQThH9xJaJBFXU1g7NqCkye_Y6_aBdWwIUT0EkfzA0NASNb7FLuT8vt6-RH8cxfyds7lZbwSfL9bYCU5qbmGfyOHJVYc8LA0tNSB_wuGjKdiUV_9el7LaIO95N63hvMMdr1czPWi=s320" width="281" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: "Lucida Calligraphy"; font-size: 20.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Wisner Family (et al) December 2021<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The circle of life surrounded the Wisner’s with plenty of
change – a year of lost and found. <b><i>Joy</i></b>
is on the inside of suffering and finding that <b><i>Joy</i></b> took plenty of
<b><i>labor</i></b>. One Grandpa left us
making some <b><i>Lee</i></b>way possible for another. This year we all
discovered how much <b><i>assisted living</i></b> is necessary for each of us
to both give and receive at every time in our life. We are so grateful for the present – and the
memories that are permanent. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Garen (“
____ the Halls”</span></b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">)</span>
- <b><i>Man</i></b> he looks good (<b><i>in
the Mirror</i></b> that is), with his home maid <b><i>haircuts</i></b>. Some call him a COVID <b><i>Rogue</i></b>
with no verbal <b><i>escape</i></b> – can his <b><i>hearing</i></b> or <b><i>speech</i></b>
be overpowered by even <b><i>twin turbos</i></b>? Now a Vistage Veteran (or <b><i>Hero</i></b>),
his entire focus has been <b><i>Outback</i></b> – chainsaw corridor, ____
design, pool potential, fire features, or grill gravitas. <i>Hands down</i>, he travels in <b><i>4.2l</i></b>
uber select style. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Susan
(“____ it’s Cold Outside)</span></b> – Nana is now her <b><i>Chosen</i></b>
name – <b><i>Frozen</i></b> in time but infinitely available for ____ tag team
troubleshooting. She makes a <b><i>point</i></b>
of outside <b><i>needle</i></b>s only for special <b><i>stockings</i></b>. Restless in many ways, no medical mystery
means much (Medicare in the making).
Susan expands her consulting business into real estate, hair styling,
Euclid landscaping, J.H. Catering, and Dyson distributor. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ellen
(“It’s the Most Wonderful ____)</span></b> – It was a Rocky year for Ellen, but
she <b><i>Wrangled</i></b> through her COVID infection. A <b><i>litter</i></b> later, she vaxed up to
New York City in <b><i>franni</i></b>c fashion.
<b><i>Wasson</i></b> Way welcomed her with <b><i>whiskers</i></b> when
work waned. <b><i>Fidelity</i></b> found
favor in her free form phone finesse (and Flex-____). <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Jenna,
Paul, & Teddy (“___ to the World”)</span></b> – Now in the family business,
Teddy arrived (4-13-2021) for his orientation and requires full time, stay at
home, supervision <span style="font-family: "Segoe UI Emoji",sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol-ext; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: "Segoe UI Emoji";">😊</span>. This
new payroll pressure pushed Jenna to pick up Accounting versus <b><i>picture
projects</i></b>. Now the <b><i>Aura</i></b>
is Teddy until the shining <b><i>metal smile</i></b> disappears. Paul has the juvenile ___ in jabber, jumpy,
juggling of jamboree….. and job. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Yoshi
& Cleo (“_______ Around the Christmas Tree”)</span></b> – After 14 years
Rambo and ______, no longer rule the house (inside that is). Yoshi has exclusive prowl since Cleo prefers
Ellen as her roommate. Ollie roams
Euclid when Wally takes vacation visits wearing out Fitch and Bella. Without
pets who could survive COVID isolation? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">Travel was limited to sunny spots – Sea Island, Kiawah, and
Naples (with a Dallas stop off). Now a full family of antibodies, social activities
can resume. Holiday gatherings test the
paradox of friendship and love – apart or together. Circumstances of this world interferes with
the relationship glue that love provides. Keep the Spirit of Love in your heart and let
<b><i><u>JOY</u></i></b> make it overflow to bind us back together in
2022. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><b><i><span style="color: #00b050; font-family: "Andalus",serif; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Merry Christmas </span></i></b><b><i><span style="font-family: "Andalus",serif; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 107%;">& <span style="color: red;">Happy New Year</span></span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><i>“Death leaves a heartache no one can heal; love leaves a
memory no one can steal.”</i> Richard
Puz<b><i><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></i></b></p></div><p><br /> </p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-78242210862404037452021-09-20T22:04:00.003-04:002021-09-20T22:04:39.628-04:00Believing Blogs<p>There are more reported breakthrough cases of COVID as the Delta variant explodes across the USA. The CDC no longer tracks breakthrough cases instead focusing on breakthrough hospitalizations and deaths. Unfortunately this data is highly dependent on state reporting with significant gaps and inconsitent reporting (including the inability to match vaccination data with other health outcome data). </p><p>Ohio began diligently tracking and transparently reporting breakthrough cases beginning August 11, 2021. There is a compelling difference between the fully vaccinated population vs unvaccinated/partially vaccinated for hospitalizations and deaths for about one month of data reporting. </p><p>Total Hospitalizations 8/11/2021 to 9/20/2021 in Ohio were 6,825 with 5,968 Unvaccinated or Patiallly Vaccinated and 449 Fully Vaccinated and 408 Unknown. </p><p>Total Deaths 8/11/2021 to 9/20/2021 in Ohio were 685 with 637 Unvaccinated or Partially Vaccinated and 30 Fully Vaccinated and 18 Unknown.</p><p>The data above is called observational data vs what Statisticians (and the FDA) prefer which is randomized controlled clinical trials which reveal many of the hidden variables. The temptation of observational data and percentages is to attribute the dramatic difference of both hospitalizations and deaths solely on the basis of one correlated variable - "fully" vaccinated. Statistically this is letting one highly correlated variabe "prove" causation. </p><p>Let me cite an example in epidemiology - A <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/009174359190006P" target="_blank">1991 an observational study</a> hailed the Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) treating symptoms associated with menopause might reduce Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) risk. But later <b><i><u>RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED</u></i></b> studies (see <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/33/3/464/716652" target="_blank">Lawlor et. al</a>) , including the large-scale Women's Health Initiative, revealed either a negative relationship or a statistically insignificant one, between HRT and CHD. </p><p>What if I replaced the words .... Unvaccinated and Vaccinated with excessive BMI (Body Mass Index) and non excessive BMI? Would that cause you to begin to diet? I would - what's the harm. Thus many would take the vaccine based on the same logic. But that does not "prove" the causation. </p><p>Let me make one final point - I had a mild case of COVID on December 7th 2020 that did not require hospitalization without vaccination. Today <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rep-tim-ryan-says-he-has-tested-positive-for-covid-19/ar-AAOEfHJ?ocid=msedgntp" target="_blank">Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan was reported to be fully vaccinated</a> with a mild case of COVID. <i><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 20px;">"Today, I tested positive for COVID-19. While I'm currently experiencing mild symptoms, I'm grateful to have the protection of a safe and effective vaccine — and I know without it, this illness could be much, much worse," Ryan said.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 20px;"> </span></i></p><p>How does Ryan have 95% confidence that the vaccine he took attributed all the benefits to his mild symptoms. His infection could have been exactly like millions of positive COVID cases prior to any vaccination available (like mine).</p><p>I'm not suggesting these vaccines are not effective. We have <b><i><u>Randomized Controlled</u></i></b> clinical trial data showing efficacy. However after unblinding these trials and relaxing the full clinical trial timelines, and follow-on studies there is chance we will never know the long term risks and rewards. </p><p>What's the old adage with my addendum: "Believe nothing you hear and only half of what you see" ...... and believe the opposite of what you read in someone's blog. </p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-10484338666696476212021-09-18T23:03:00.000-04:002021-09-18T23:03:14.943-04:00Infinite BoostersI continue to daily post in my own personal spreadsheet COVID statistics and read as quickly as I can the various medical study reports. Nearly all these reports are available prior to any peer review process and picked up by the media for purposes of publishing COVID - PORN. I will self admit I am addicted to all this COVID -PORN no different from the individual red state or blue state political addict is to watching Fox News or MSNBC. <div><br /></div><div>However - I am beginning to see some light into the reasonable arguments about natural immunity, lack of randomized trials, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2-top-fda-officials-resigned-biden-booster-plan-reports-2021-9#:~:text=The%20US%20Food%20and%20Drug%20Administration%20announced%20the,the%20officials%20had%20a%20chance%20to%20approve%20it." target="_blank">even principled and ethical regulators</a> who will not be pressured, bullied, or abandon the proven methods and analysis expected by (and taught for years) scientists, academics and experts trained in the scientific principle. </div><div><br /></div><div>During this COVID crisis I've come to love listening/viewing <a href="https://zdoggmd.com/" target="_blank">ZDogg's</a> point of view and interviews with experts. It has helped form my opinions about this crisis and possibly reinforced some of my objections to the vaccination arguments that are statistically in error or abused. </div><div><br /></div><div>The controversy about the booster shot from Pfizer shows how fear, politics, time pressure, greed, and every other human emotional response can reveal the worst in our behaviors and relationships. The human condition is the need to be right, to be affirmed by others, and.... to prove others they are wrong. Being Right has become the most important outcome - beyond even survival. </div><div><br /></div><div>Several adages come to mind - "Don't cut your nose to spite your face"; "Whether you are Dead Right or Dead Wrong... You're still Dead"; "Add injury to insult"; "The early bird contracts the Worms"; "Add salt to the injury"; "Don't dig in your heels only to discover you can't walk".</div><div><br /></div><div>Herd Immunity rings too closely to the term Mob Mentality. Democracy unchecked makes the Mob "Right". Social media manufactures what is "Heard" into the Herd. Simpson's Paradox makes everyone statistically right.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ9AnO91nQg08T_JZOw00Y5nS9lpiddKEUcku3HUfKVrI4F231Ed-eRJreB50oIoroaaPB9ZkxwyEaFaMtNJK1aKe1RARgLrer3gJsNWq_06b9U-JRHOROAa1jPcthiKUC0H-UAHkck0E/s823/SimpsonsParadox.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="592" data-original-width="823" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ9AnO91nQg08T_JZOw00Y5nS9lpiddKEUcku3HUfKVrI4F231Ed-eRJreB50oIoroaaPB9ZkxwyEaFaMtNJK1aKe1RARgLrer3gJsNWq_06b9U-JRHOROAa1jPcthiKUC0H-UAHkck0E/s320/SimpsonsParadox.PNG" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-5301381446404984542021-08-21T13:53:00.000-04:002021-08-21T13:53:01.620-04:00Nevermind the TimeI thought 2020 was a year worth forgetting but eight months into 2021 this year has created the most emotional volatility. On the upside - the birth of my first Grandson (Teddy Lee), Ellen's graduation and employment with Fidelity Investments and now the introduction of two new kittens - Yoda and Yoshi. Sadly this year, Rambo and Rocky died (presumably of old age ailments and disease). With Ellen's new kitten Cleo we have saved three kittens from their abandonment. <div><br /></div><div>Watching Teddy develop alongside kittens is an interesting contrast. Yet the rapid speed shows the exponential power of growth (size, capabilities etc.). Amid the COVID-19 deaths (now over 644K in USA) the perpetual machine of new life overpowers the sorrow of death. This spiritual mystery (for some) just doesn't provide enough hope to overshadow the temptational cries of armegedon (e.g. Climate Crisis, Pandemic Fear, Economic Meltdown, Poverty and Starvation, Water Shortage, and yes.... even asteroid collision. All worries related to time.</div><div><br /></div><div>Drilled into my head constantly was my Mother's mantra of the power of positive thinking - the hopeful outlook of human improvement (time on this earth) and spiritual eternity (time outside this earth). </div><div><br /></div><div>At 4:45 am Friday driving Ellen to the airport, I listened to NPR's rebroadcast of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct1j0l" target="_blank">BBC World Service - Business Daily "Rethinking Time"</a> .</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adrian_Bejan" target="_blank">Professor Adrian Bejan of Duke University</a> states <i>"Time is a human perception. We feel the passing of time so there is a clock time that brings everyone together on this planet and then there is a mind time which is personal." </i> Mind time is like clicks of the eye - or frames in a movie reflecting change. "<i>Time is the name for the perception of change." </i> The time (clock time) from morning to night is fixed, yet the number of clicks (infant or adult) of mind time is variable by individual. As we get older the number of clicks decreases (computer clicks too 😁). </div><div><br /></div><div>There are 72 waking non working hours (clock time) available (assuming 40 hour work week and 8 hours of sleep) equally to each of us. How are each of us mindful about these clock time hours? How are each of us mindful about the click time available within that clock time? </div><div><br /></div><div>Mind what you look at and how you look at it. Nevermind the time - change your perceptions. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-15619038193718285472021-08-11T21:39:00.009-04:002021-08-11T21:53:41.760-04:00Growing Data Awareness<p>One valuable and sacred principle of American freedom is the ring of truth that inevitably rises from any cloaking of information - the Pentagon Papers, Vietnam Causulties, Tobacco Cancer Data.... the list goes on (<a href="https://people.howstuffworks.com/10-cover-ups-made-things-worse.htm" target="_blank">10 Cover-ups that Just Made Things Worse</a>). </p><p>A.S. sent me an email suggesting I watch a youtube presentation from Dr. Dan Stock to the Mt. Vernon School Board last night. By 9:00am this morning the Youtube feed had been removed.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikXGf2resXEwe9_uxP1BPxnzZI5JquIOYbz_Y08C1w1YLC35W9vHlOpqBFqR_xky3IAE9PND89JEN9mFCLZSh0yBewhIFa6CpMGSZQV5nIf9rltovpJnhrHU-wsfA6VQZ9TQujGBoZv-4/s1264/YouTubeDeletion.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="1264" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikXGf2resXEwe9_uxP1BPxnzZI5JquIOYbz_Y08C1w1YLC35W9vHlOpqBFqR_xky3IAE9PND89JEN9mFCLZSh0yBewhIFa6CpMGSZQV5nIf9rltovpJnhrHU-wsfA6VQZ9TQujGBoZv-4/w400-h225/YouTubeDeletion.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>Naturally I decided to look into the guidelines for this removal from a public School Board Meeting. The Youtube specific policy on COVID-19 can be found at this link: <a href="https://support.google.com/youtube/answer/9891785?hl=en&ref_topic=9282436" target="_blank">COVID-19 Medical Misinformation Policy</a>. <div><br /></div><div><p style="background-color: white; color: #3c4043; font-family: Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.75rem;">YouTube doesn't allow content that spreads medical misinformation that contradicts local health authorities’ or the World Health Organization’s (WHO) medical information about COVID-19. This is limited to content that contradicts WHO or local health authorities’ guidance on:</p><ul style="background-color: white; color: #3c4043; font-family: Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.75rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><li data-outlined="false" style="list-style-type: none; margin: 0.25rem 0px; padding-left: 1rem;">Treatment </li><li data-outlined="false" style="list-style-type: none; margin: 0.25rem 0px; padding-left: 1rem;">Prevention</li><li data-outlined="false" style="list-style-type: none; margin: 0.25rem 0px; padding-left: 1rem;">Diagnosis</li><li data-outlined="false" style="list-style-type: none; margin: 0.25rem 0px; padding-left: 1rem;">Transmission</li><li data-outlined="false" style="list-style-type: none; margin: 0.25rem 0px; padding-left: 1rem;">Social distancing and self isolation guidelines</li><li data-outlined="false" style="list-style-type: none; margin: 0.25rem 0px; padding-left: 1rem;">The existence of COVID-19</li></ul><p style="background-color: white; color: #3c4043; font-family: Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.75rem;">Note: YouTube’s policies on COVID-19 are subject to change in response to changes to global or local health authorities’ guidance on the virus. This policy was published on May 20, 2020. </p><p style="color: #3c4043; font-family: Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.75rem;"><span style="background-color: #fff2cc; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;">Luckily the internet provides a vehicle for 1st Amendment Rights - Freedom of Speech and I was able to find the transcript of Dr. Dan Stock's address. Clearly this (among others) statement did him in:</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #3c4043; font-family: Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.75rem;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><i>"And you can’t prevent it with a vaccine because they don’t do the very thing you’re wanting them to do, and you will be chasing this the remainder of your life until you recognize that the Center for Disease Control, and the Indiana State Board of Health, are giving you very bad scientific guidance" </i></span></p></div><div><p><span style="background-color: #fff2cc;"><span>One side claims conspiracy theories by kooks, the other side claims government propoganda and each attempts to gain public access and the podium.</span><span> </span></span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></p><p>My bully pulpit is about the data and continues to be only that in my poorly written blogs (as pointed out by T.Mc.). Obviously my bias (self proclaimed) is that I previously had COVID-19 (with documented Antibodies) and feel no rush to become vaccinated. </p><p>Recently I became aware of Mass. Dept of Health statistics. Ignoring the CDC's advice to not count breakthrough cases (<a href="https://www.mass.gov/doc/memorandum-reporting-of-vaccine-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-resulting-in-hospitalization-or-death/download?_ga=2.108202114.1067187495.1628724001-410798672.1628724001" target="_blank">and only hospitalizations and deaths</a>) they are publishing (a bit hard to find though) data on Breakthroughs cases in addition to hospitalizations and deaths.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGrOjHULRyaMkv2WuSC6hruzT9slJxqjk0dCDphXRE4UWSJm_jvvK_4BfzYpSVBSPOzIGRHB40aeKHO8p7EaVDImZ8iZcZrtSG8CkxHc9Wosw69Iw6SpAeiIokvWIrbY0cGvTu8C4S4mM/s1175/DeptofHealthMass_Breakthrough.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="873" data-original-width="1175" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGrOjHULRyaMkv2WuSC6hruzT9slJxqjk0dCDphXRE4UWSJm_jvvK_4BfzYpSVBSPOzIGRHB40aeKHO8p7EaVDImZ8iZcZrtSG8CkxHc9Wosw69Iw6SpAeiIokvWIrbY0cGvTu8C4S4mM/w400-h297/DeptofHealthMass_Breakthrough.PNG" title="Ma. Dept of Health Daily Covid Vaccine Report" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>I can quibble with their percentage calculation as too early to be significant (it's like saying in March 31of 2020 there were only 3,889 deaths in the USA from COVID-19 with a population of 332 million - .001%). I think both percentages are meaningless. </p><p>However - give Mass Dept of Health credit for maintaining history. On May 24 there were 3.343 Breathtrough cases with 2.9 million fully vaccinated; On 7/31 there were 7,737 Breakthrough Cases and on 8/7 there were 9,969 Breakthrough cases with 4.3 million fully vaccinated. You can now compute the compounded daily growth rate of Breakthrough infections in Mass. for the fully vaccinated. Oh heck - I'll do it for you - It is a 1.47% Daily Compound Growth Rate since May 24 and the last week was a 3.69% Daily Compound Growth Rate from 7/31 to 8/7. </p><p>NOTE: The COMPOUND DAILY GROWTH RATE OF COVID-19 POSITIVE CASES (USA) FROM 1/20/2020 to 8/11/2021 is ....... wait for it .........3.11%</p><p>T. Mc. (also willing to crosscheck my logic and play devils advocate) just sent me an email from a reliable left bias source <a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/06/cdc-covid-coronavirus-data-breakthrough-cases" target="_blank">The Guardian</a> to the question: <span face=""Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-size: 13px;"><b><u><span style="color: red;">Why isn’t the US tracking ‘breakthrough’ Covid cases?</span></u></b></span></p><p>The response he received from Nao Yachot (Guardian US Membership Editor) is too long to publish in this blog, Here is a snipet: </p><p><i><span face=""Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #000001; font-size: 14px;">With Delta come many questions that Guardian reporters have been pursuing as hospitals in the deep south </span><a href="https://ablink.email.theguardian.com/ss/c/TBl-lE0k4WbTlFRn6v-lQXxTpTslqnvUsR2ofAkC00sHa-z0R6WWeipy9L7znGxP8QnznrmrcQhl6ONGBoU0deEqRdwookyH_FBbnII22o-pNs_6bJFQ4xgjYbnWKqDT/3ed/q9wdrfD6SmqkWXnCS4uL9Q/h2/o6bGWC3qvLIwn0FifgFX725t8ikSiuWYsRQX6qyIToE" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: #0084c6; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;" target="_blank">run out of ICU beds</a><span face=""Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #000001; font-size: 14px;">, mayors and governors </span><a href="https://ablink.email.theguardian.com/ss/c/TBl-lE0k4WbTlFRn6v-lQXxTpTslqnvUsR2ofAkC00sHa-z0R6WWeipy9L7znGxPOJUkGCvIhYhUlfGzLY03zo5YNCfMNkzfh_DCmWIXLRII90u_RpQejkH9vJtMw10TokdIye3iqdaURcGRhMCKzg/3ed/q9wdrfD6SmqkWXnCS4uL9Q/h3/hqZ_sLaJqhrthRvkS9zNmx_ZO_4ydOeOhfKHQ0yIsRk" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: #0084c6; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;" target="_blank">reintroduce restrictions</a><span face=""Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #000001; font-size: 14px;"> and </span><a href="https://ablink.email.theguardian.com/ss/c/TBl-lE0k4WbTlFRn6v-lQXxTpTslqnvUsR2ofAkC00sHa-z0R6WWeipy9L7znGxPpYUz--acgHTNpVDMfTjETahe0SBdQpjcS_iSoo_erURcAHqS6eDpgwXq1WXZ5eff/3ed/q9wdrfD6SmqkWXnCS4uL9Q/h4/r8uy_x8rG6NjDFdJevI4fTUJflmIkjKIfti3DOHFaTI" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: #0084c6; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;" target="_blank">health professionals report</a><span face=""Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #000001; font-size: 14px;"> increased hospitalization of children with severe cases. Among the questions we are asking:</span></i></p><ul style="background-color: white; color: #000001; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><li><i>How many vaccinated people are getting infected with so-called “breakthrough” Covid cases?</i></li><li><i>Are children at particular risk as the school year begins?</i></li><li><i>Can people who have been vaccinated still get long Covid?</i></li></ul><p><i><span face=""Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: #000001;">Answering some of these questions is made </span><b><u><span style="color: red;">tricky by the fact that the US has no centralized system for collecting information on breakthrough cases – because the CDC stopped tracking those cases earlier this year,</span></u></b><span style="color: #000001;"> and is now only collecting data on breakthrough cases that lead to hospitalization or death. In an </span></span><a href="https://ablink.email.theguardian.com/ss/c/4SeDLFY5_ClVgdFbmK4SWJngAW1TtXdadi7kOEBmGrIWi6C5REqPM9SZ1Np-vKNxBGOD387b61JETEOYtJJ_5BQG_Q2D_XgJMt2Ifaxk2VY58xW-q5zz57qqEeVYjd9Jj_6K5wntL_IEZD8WhjqgaQ/3ed/q9wdrfD6SmqkWXnCS4uL9Q/h5/eGSwfSSnpqqvg2SHKGRS9K98jMx_J_ytsWs-jPlVt98" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="background-color: white; color: #0084c6; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;" target="_blank">op-ed we recently published</a><span face=""Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #000001; font-size: 14px;">, science writer Yasmin Tayag laments this dearth of information, which she says limits our ability to make informed decisions.</span></i></p><p>The cry of Paul Revere for data will be heard..... time and data freedom will ring the truth. Let both the right and left cry out - uncensored. </p></div>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-1610009172025946602021-08-09T11:09:00.009-04:002021-08-09T11:09:56.908-04:00Citizen Data Scientists<p>A. S. who has put up with my constant emails and has been my outlet for my statistical skepticism sent me an interesting story on how the CDC came to <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/08/06/1025553638/how-a-gay-community-helped-the-cdc-spot-a-covid-outbreak-and-learn-more-about-de?utm_source=npr_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=20210808&utm_term=5644645&utm_campaign=best-of-npr&utm_id=12646899&orgid=704&utm_att1=" target="_blank">study the Provincetown Mass. COVID cluster</a> infection of the fully vaccinated. In fact Michael Donnelly launched his own <a href="http://COVIDoutlook.info">COVIDoutlook.info</a> website. </p><p>Now I don't feel so bad about the time I daily spend updating my own COVID Data Model Spreadsheet and blogging about the misinformation or spin doctoring statistics. I just finished reading the book <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Extra-Life-History-Living-Longer/dp/0525538852" target="_blank">"Extra Life: A Short History of Living Longer"</a> by Steven Johnson (also a <a href="https://www.pbs.org/show/extra-life-short-history-living-longer/" target="_blank">CET documentary</a>). In 1866 the Citizen Data Scientist -William Farr discovers the Cholera outbreak in London is due to one infected water source and proves the transmission method. His charts are worthy of framing. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggn1Stzk9n5-EN9upWLxnLa5OSImpcU5v1317t3JR3Lm_8ufJ5jj0yRG0HavGyD0U9AX5dWD_fMlVncE8gRGMyd2jY2iv-tkN3hpZkuQpTqEVUFejIKqt8urhJ9C94VqrgR0Kgn76CDN0/s753/CholeraDataChartsWilliamFarr.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="753" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggn1Stzk9n5-EN9upWLxnLa5OSImpcU5v1317t3JR3Lm_8ufJ5jj0yRG0HavGyD0U9AX5dWD_fMlVncE8gRGMyd2jY2iv-tkN3hpZkuQpTqEVUFejIKqt8urhJ9C94VqrgR0Kgn76CDN0/w400-h316/CholeraDataChartsWilliamFarr.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>When the government, institutions, media and mob attempt to discredit the individual voices skeptics as crazy misinformation pundits we discourage the very citizenship voice of discovery needed to improve the science.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-27983286104100285662021-08-03T10:50:00.004-04:002021-08-03T10:50:32.298-04:00Vaccination from Fear<p> In my search for "real" statistics about Delta Variant hospitalizations ..... finally some actual investigative report to be applauded. You could argue the survey is statistically not well done but ..... some data is better than no data.</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: TiemposText, Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 28px; margin: 24px 0px; scroll-margin-top: 72px;"><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/vast-majority-icu-patients-covid-19-unvaccinated-abc/story?id=79128401" target="_blank">ABC News</a> contacted 50 hospitals in 17 states, and asked them to share data on their ICU wards' current COVID-19 patients, including their vaccination status. In the surveyed hospitals, ABC News found that the overwhelming majority of COVID-19 patients currently being treated in ICUs were unvaccinated.</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: TiemposText, Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 28px; margin: 24px 0px; scroll-margin-top: 72px;">Of the 271 total COVID patients in the surveyed ICUs, 255 patients, or approximately 94%, were unvaccinated against COVID-19 in ABC News' snapshot in time.</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28px; margin: 24px 0px; scroll-margin-top: 72px;">The article also cites Alabama's Department of Health Statistics on hospitalizations of vaccinated vs unvaccinated (94%) but provides no link to verify (and a quick search yielded nothing). I do like Alabama's summary which includes Antibody results. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeMGPkrc8seJhheykVsm6ARoPUn_SWMdMcwUnwOKBP7psMNe6Q2Dk1QiQtcq5osJBtz8yHCNMoVcLWkVSJCU3bQWwIw6GXxo3EXTR7K3M5iN4PfSgybvcSJvavNbumM7fBiFazOjfa_YI/s448/AlabamaDeptofHeath2021_08_03.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="448" data-original-width="341" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeMGPkrc8seJhheykVsm6ARoPUn_SWMdMcwUnwOKBP7psMNe6Q2Dk1QiQtcq5osJBtz8yHCNMoVcLWkVSJCU3bQWwIw6GXxo3EXTR7K3M5iN4PfSgybvcSJvavNbumM7fBiFazOjfa_YI/s320/AlabamaDeptofHeath2021_08_03.JPG" width="244" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.alabamapublichealth.gov/covid19/data.html">Data and Surveillance | Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) (alabamapublichealth.gov)</a></td></tr></tbody></table>The only thing I could find is yet another undocumented survey - yet another example of viral media news:<div><br /></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: TiemposText, Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px;">In a recent<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/officials-concerned-unvaccinated-population-south/story?id=78425124" target="_blank"> survey of Alabama's hospitals</a>, 94% of current COVID-19 positive patients were unvaccinated, Don Williamson, president of the Alabama Hospital Association, told ABC News in a statement.</span><br /><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 28px; margin: 24px 0px; scroll-margin-top: 72px;">The reality of our decision making process is that we are biased to the very ancillary data sources of our personal network and news we read weighed against our own personal evaluation of risk and rewards. I believe mortality emotional risk grows with age (the older you are the fear of death may increase). There is only one vaccine (although tests are not complete) that can reduce the fear of mortality (across all circumstances). I'll let you guess what that is.</p></div>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-17772382427200650022021-08-02T22:25:00.000-04:002021-08-02T22:25:05.091-04:00Flying Blind<p>The Delta Variant is shaking up the data tree. "New Science" is the latest terminology. Prior to this I guess we were trusting the "Old Science". The challenge for a data hungry person like me is the constant disappointment. Florida as an example - they stopped doing a daily COVID-19 dashboard preferring to defer to the CDC stating they send the data to them daily. Unfortuanately clicking on the state of Florida sends me right back to the Florida Department of Health - an infinite non data loop.</p><p>One could argue that weekly data is sufficient and 7 day moving averages are better statistical viewing and takes some of the "data noise" out of the clamor. J.D. gave an interesting perspective of why Israel, England and Canada might have better and more transparent data. National Health Care (Centralized) provides a greater and more standardized way of capturing and accumulating data. So my criticism of the CDC should be tempered. Fair Point!</p><p>Since deaths (an hospitalizations) have dropped dramatically I discovered some great interactive data tools and visualization on the CDC Data Tracker site.</p><p>I thought it would be interesting to visualize the deaths supperimposed on the total vaccines administered. Looking at this graph in simple terms and you would say WOW .... this vaccine caused the dramatic fall in deaths!!! And that is exactly as the media is reporting. The clinical trials are "proven" out in the population as a whole.But</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3KR9N_j913BMfk5Waf2ZYVqctylTuV1MdC52pKjgeQIV5DZySz0S9rWHs-ZGSMVZ3-A4hdmQ60BtSSvc6dx8cjAgkezajad7wlEZhdTLi5_uWStOswrn54vVkzVQ2PoKvNHDx2xYztSY/s1233/DeathsvsVaccines.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1233" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3KR9N_j913BMfk5Waf2ZYVqctylTuV1MdC52pKjgeQIV5DZySz0S9rWHs-ZGSMVZ3-A4hdmQ60BtSSvc6dx8cjAgkezajad7wlEZhdTLi5_uWStOswrn54vVkzVQ2PoKvNHDx2xYztSY/w400-h268/DeathsvsVaccines.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The dates from January 7, 2021 to January 13, 2021 had several peaks - </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Daily Deaths peaked 4,154 on 1/13/21</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">7 Day Average Deaths 3,626 on 1/13/21</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">New Positive Cases 295,881 on 1/7/21</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">7 Day Average Cases 253,378 on 1/11/21</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Here are the cumulative numbers by 1/13/21</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Total Positive Cases - 23,502,741</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Total Deaths - 413,899</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Total Vaccines Administered (1 or 2 shots) - 15,167,141</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">BUT WAIT..... Look at this chart - it looks similar!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju3-GnVW-t45erqIHOcH2-S9WVxKSJNJ2jlxdh5J8Pn90hV9t2XaOTgyyR8qkPVolFA4tt4quuIe92jUGlrM7zVhUzRSEcc8ASZWamMq1zw8xVMZVooVEnrUxVD4S9FIHaTfepAeti98g/s1216/CumCasesvsDeaths.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="1216" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju3-GnVW-t45erqIHOcH2-S9WVxKSJNJ2jlxdh5J8Pn90hV9t2XaOTgyyR8qkPVolFA4tt4quuIe92jUGlrM7zVhUzRSEcc8ASZWamMq1zw8xVMZVooVEnrUxVD4S9FIHaTfepAeti98g/w400-h278/CumCasesvsDeaths.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>Let's call the new yellow line in this chart "the ultimate vaccine". It coincidentally crosses very near the upper chart - on January 25, 2021.<div><br /></div><div>You ask - what is that "ultimate vaccine" the one that has also caused the dramatic reduction in deaths?</div><div><br /></div><div>The yellow line is the cumulative positive cases of COVID-19 - 25,170,494 survivors - presumably with ANTIBODIES. </div><div><br /></div><div>Use a multiple of asympotmatic cases of 3-5 and you get 75 to 125 million people with antibodies. I can find no data that "proves" immunity and/or no further transmission but there may be a high probability that is also why cases of Alpha Variant were rapidly decreasing also.</div><div><br /></div><div>What is my point? We have lost control! There are no control cases. We are using the unvaccinated (which includes survivors with antibodies) as a improper control group compared to the vaccinated (which also includes survivors with antibodies). In fact the clinical trials were unblinded without proper control groups to measure going forward.</div><div><br /></div><div>Now the Delta Variant and others appear - no control there either. We are "flying blind" in a vaccine airplane mixed passengers that we have no clue about their immunity or antibodies. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><div>Addendum: While I'm critical of the State of Florida for ceasing the daily data. I was humbled to see that state had weekly <a href="http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/total-antibody-results/serology-reports/serology_latest.pdf" target="_blank">Serology Data</a> (as of May 31). Why did this stop?</div><div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div></div></div>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-28244115714966594642021-07-27T12:46:00.003-04:002021-07-27T12:46:40.372-04:00Percentage Wars - Unconvincing<p> The misuse of data and simple percentages continues - this time on the side of the immunity fight of COVID survivors. The trouble is that it takes getting data from other countries to even address the truth about immunity (the CDC does not even capture cases by previous infection).</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX-ZzPvStp-3azSlRYvNxukf6R7pAO1OM5RF7wuP43eUqXge_Drxj0eQ66-Hfa-4MW-BdLFUSP6XhJlPpbGI8ZYIvfNLqEj6Noby1bAGdwQ6v86MmpdlHm6OAZisVqxdsLgIUdB8zFiuk/s673/Percentage.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="673" data-original-width="656" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX-ZzPvStp-3azSlRYvNxukf6R7pAO1OM5RF7wuP43eUqXge_Drxj0eQ66-Hfa-4MW-BdLFUSP6XhJlPpbGI8ZYIvfNLqEj6Noby1bAGdwQ6v86MmpdlHm6OAZisVqxdsLgIUdB8zFiuk/s320/Percentage.JPG" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Here is the article from Israel - "<a href="https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/309762" target="_blank">Natural infection vs vaccination: Which gives more protection?</a>"</p><p>Notice the same error of oranges to apples comparison: </p><p><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px;"><i>"With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already infected with COVID".</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px;"><i>"By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection, with over 3,000 of the 5,193,499, or 0.0578%, of Israelis who were vaccinated getting infected in the latest wave."</i></span></p><p>Using a denominator of all known positive cases since COVID inception and a numerator of vaccinations that started nearly a year later is just plainly errant! Can you see the other error?</p><p>How can my analysis be so simple and yet unconvincing :)</p><p><i><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px;">"According to a report by </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px;">Channel 13</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px;">, the disparity has confounded – and divided – Health Ministry experts, with some saying the data proves the higher level of immunity provided by natural infection versus vaccination, while others remained unconvinced."</span></i></p><p>It's no wonder confusion continues.</p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-53159015395662017362021-07-19T10:40:00.005-04:002021-07-19T10:52:01.717-04:00Spinning the Statistics - Moving Targets<p>When you calculate a percentage the denominator is a critical variable. If you want a small percentage just inflate the denominator toward infinity. Consequently when you want the vaccine to be 99.99% effective just increase your timeline, enlarge your population comparison base and restrict your numerator to as small a number as possible. Let me give you and example of playing with the timeframe:</p><p>The definition of "fully vaccinated" is 14 days from the second shot. Vaccinations didn't start until 12/14/2020 with only 541individuals with the second shot. The USA surpassed a million people with the second shot on 1/11/2021 - 1,317,291. But that number is not lagged by the 14 day rule. On 1/11/2021 only 8,515 individuals would have had their second shot for 14 days. </p><p>So let's say one of the two shot vaccinated individuals contracted COVID and died on 1/11/2021. The 14 day rule eliminated 1,308,776 in process vaccinated individuals from consideration in the percentage calculation. It is highly probable that this two shot vaccinated individuals would be considered "unvaccinated". </p><p>Now if you start counting anything (cases, hospitalizations, deaths) as of 12/14/2020 it should be evident you denominator is very large by 1/11/2021 and yet the "fully vaccinated" population is only 8,515 available to contract COVID, get hospitalized, and if unlucky tragically die. Also remember the death rate lags any positive test by as much as 3 weeks or more. </p><p>So lets say one of the 8,515 individuals tested positive for COVID-19 on 1/11/2021. If that person died three weeks later it would be 2/1/2021. Have you "stopped" the denominator from growing from the unvaccinated and the partially vaccinated for proper comparison during that three weeks?</p><p>So let's use a real live example - <a href="https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/about/press/pr2021/vaccination-campaign-prevented-covid-cases-deaths-hospitalizations-in-2021.page" target="_blank">New York City</a>. </p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiifJVONG2cM-HfPZ_65F4uk-Wv64NwMp9RRCWMmtZxGLlNB_dZ98OKue2_KtCBk2WC2bqfgHz6V2YOya7wfRAiOHqggEoqMiHvfHaymG6l3GEAL91ZEMKlxch-jqp9iby8-NEr_V9otrI/s733/NYCCOVIDStats.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="355" data-original-width="733" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiifJVONG2cM-HfPZ_65F4uk-Wv64NwMp9RRCWMmtZxGLlNB_dZ98OKue2_KtCBk2WC2bqfgHz6V2YOya7wfRAiOHqggEoqMiHvfHaymG6l3GEAL91ZEMKlxch-jqp9iby8-NEr_V9otrI/w400-h194/NYCCOVIDStats.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>Do you see the problem? The denominator is as big as possible and the numerator (by definition) is as small as possible. <p></p><p>I can make the vaccine "work" at nearly 100% efficacy by just changing my definition of "fully vaccinated" from14 days to 60 days (note the vaccine has only been administered for about 218 days). </p><p>What is the lesson here. When you have no control group you are dealing with moving targets.</p><p>Addendum 10:49am - Another variables to consider. (1) % of population with antibodies (i.e. symptomatic and asymptomatic survivors). (2) % of population unavailable to be vaccinated </p><p><br /></p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-2469166620451243192021-07-18T13:24:00.010-04:002021-07-18T19:03:23.351-04:00Tweet it Through the Grapevine<p> I continue to search diligently for data to support this claim - <a href="https://sputniknews.com/us/202107161083401316-pandemic-of-the-unvaccinated-cdc-chief-says-97-of-us-hospitalizations-didnt-get-covid-19-shots/">'Pandemic of the Unvaccinated': CDC Chief Says 97% of US Hospitalizations Didn't Get COVID-19 Shots. </a> from the Sputnik News - by Morgan Artyukhina.</p><p>The CDC Chief did say... "This is BECOMING thePandemic of the Unvaccinated" but what about the 97% statistic about hospitalizations?????</p><p>Naturally I searched the body of this article for hyperlinks to the data. only to discover it was taken froma young recent graduate of the University of Maryland who <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/bs-md-unvaccinated-coronavirus-deaths-maryland-june-20210707-7zugtntgifg4pomlrjy4lmjhnq-story.html" target="_blank">reported in the Baltimore Sun</a>: "Of the <span style="color: red;"><b><u>nearly</u></b></span> 100 people who died of COVID-19 in Maryland last month, all were not vaccinated against the disease, state health officials say. In addition, 95% of newly infected people in Maryland and 93% of those requiring hospitalization were unvaccinated, <u><span style="color: red;"><b>according to a tweet </b></span></u>from Mike Ricci, spokesman fro Gov. Larry Hogan." </p><p>So where is the 97%????? And is this where we get acurate data .... according to a tweet???? </p><p>Now the <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/surgeon-general-doubles-down-on-criticism-of-social-media-says-companies-like-facebook-need-to-take-responsibility-for-covid-19-misinformation/ar-AAMi5u7?ocid=uxbndlbing" target="_blank">Surgeon Genera</a>l is worried about the mis-information with a 22 page report casting doubt upon the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine. But what about the reverse - the unsubstantiated statistics about death and hospitalizations in context of the vaccine virallly reported through various news organizations on-line publishing. </p><p>I have searched the CDC traking database for any statistics regarding cases, hospitalizations and deaths for Covid suvivors, unvacinnated individuals, those with antibodies, and vaccinnated (by vaccine type). I can find nothing beyond early studies of healthcare workers. </p><p>I could find no where that the CDC Chief actually said 97% of US Hospitalizations didn't get COVID-19 shots. And..... a young journalist decides to report a tweeted statistic of 95% with no further research. And.... what precise reporting "nearly 100 people who died" - was it 100 or not? Was it 99 or 98 let's not round the numbers. And then another journalist uses the Baltimore Sun article and changes the statistic to 97%. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfOkY3A-Dsz0AX7tclrBS3Lm1aqGnP7W7TXen5AiVDpqKAePWsK8Cntk5gQegMjlZpVrtc5Caf2HAx2HMW-9UPGeKUCZF9DY_q-ChaIzpywMCN3cBiMRNuk30CojgSnfjFXEklXzTvjW4/s432/Grapevine.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="306" data-original-width="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfOkY3A-Dsz0AX7tclrBS3Lm1aqGnP7W7TXen5AiVDpqKAePWsK8Cntk5gQegMjlZpVrtc5Caf2HAx2HMW-9UPGeKUCZF9DY_q-ChaIzpywMCN3cBiMRNuk30CojgSnfjFXEklXzTvjW4/s320/Grapevine.PNG" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>What we have here is "Grapevine" tweet based reporting with editorial license in rounding. </p><p><br /></p><p>Addendum 1:59pm: I have found a case of accurate and decent reporting around the statistic 97%. Published in the Seattle Times - June 5th 2021 "<a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/the-two-societies-97-of-new-covid-cases-are-among-people-who-havent-gotten-the-shots/" target="_blank">The 'two societies': 97% of new COVID cases are among people who haven't gotten the shots"</a> reported by Danny Westneat. They actually crossreferenced cases with vaccination databases. However there is a slight flaw in analysis since "fully vaccinated (14 days after second shot) could be a stringent criteria and it wasn't until May 15th the vaccine was available for anyone under 16 (consequently the data was not recast for the correct population age demographic). </p><p>Addendum #2 2:44pm Also remember - thie Seattle Times article is positive COVID-19 cases - not hospitalizations or deaths. Nor would it (or could it) apply to asymptomatic cases. Also could vaccinated population do more masking, social distancing, generally be more healthy (socially economically priviledged ) , and health conscious? </p><p>Addendum #3 2:56pm Look carefully at the prior blog and UK data. Of the 53K "linked" positive Delta Variant Cases - 4,087 were vaccinated "fully" which is 7.69% of the positive cases (or 92.3% of new cases were not "fully vaccinated"). Yet.... there were 20 vaccinated of the 73 total deaths --- 35.6% of the deaths were vaccinated individuals. Hmmm........ Which statistic do you think they are reporting.</p><p>Addendum #4 6:15pn Just read a <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/over-half-of-unvaccinated-americans-say-they-re-not-concerned-about-delta-variant-poll/ar-AAMiqLp?ocid=msedgntp" target="_blank">Newsweek/MSN report</a> stating: <b><i>" On Sunday, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy said that nearly all of COVID-19 deaths - or 99.5 percent - are happening among unvaccinated people." </i></b><i><b><span face=""Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 20px;"> </span></b></i>Where is the data for that statistic? Once again a quote from the Surgeon General with no checking - no supporting data. Where is the investigating journalism in that?</p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-75630924154394562432021-07-15T21:28:00.003-04:002021-07-15T21:28:27.929-04:00CDC - Complacent Data Censorship<p> The Vaccine news war wages on. One side accuses the other of data manipulation, social media lies, and fear mongering. Yet amid all of that misinformation on both sides there is little attempt to link to the actual data or report used for numbers and/or percentages. PHE (Public Health England), once again, shows how more sophisticated their data collection and analysis is over the CDC (United States Center for Disease Control). A recent report - <b><a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001359/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf" target="_blank">SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England Technical briefing 16 (June 18, 2021)</a></b> provides the very data that health care providers and individuals could use to evaluate their risk and decisions concerning COVID-19 and the various variants.</p><p>Here is a table that I've been searching for, requesting from the CDC, and can never find.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB9EAsSXZN78IcaWRoOpbtmwgODx0yAGLtjxYzLlNwsF3kFqMZItG_0fRcw7bNkKXC978GGcaBecRQrz1MdzUt1er96QdXQYuM1HqfRgTxUY1mwBjzMYql8N5Y0n_dShThUgK_wG-Tyvk/s1206/DeltaVariant.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="789" data-original-width="1206" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB9EAsSXZN78IcaWRoOpbtmwgODx0yAGLtjxYzLlNwsF3kFqMZItG_0fRcw7bNkKXC978GGcaBecRQrz1MdzUt1er96QdXQYuM1HqfRgTxUY1mwBjzMYql8N5Y0n_dShThUgK_wG-Tyvk/w400-h262/DeltaVariant.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><p>Math does not have to be your strong suit to perform you own calculations - percentages. One thing I can criticize is not seeing the demographic data (age, sex, race etc.) although the data set is fairly small. I suspect this is available on the website and would answer the question younger people are struggling with regarding vaccination.</p><p>Now .... .here is my personal spin (and opinion). I believe (and yes I don't have data to support it) that the treatment for COVID and it's variants has been steadily improving. I also believe that the natural immunity (herd immunity) is much greater in the USA than estimated (even before the mass EUA vaccination program). </p><p>This fall/winter we will spike again but the rate of hospitalization and deaths will begin to look more and more like the common flu. </p><p>A real bonus for the "data diggers" is to download the report link above and read the section on "Survelliance of Reinfections" (AND WHY DOESN'T THE CDC MONITOR THAT!!)</p><p>Maybe we should rename the CDC - Complacent Data Censorship </p><p><span> </span><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-91781432134292546342021-07-11T09:00:00.006-04:002021-07-26T13:39:44.271-04:00Boiling Blood<p>It is inexcuseable that the CDC and state reporting are either not collecting or reporting simple data points concerning positve COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths for the various vaccines, unvaccinated and previous COVID-19 infections. These are the very data points that would support conjectures about efficacy, sustainable immunity, and long-term consequences of each.</p><p>Additionally determining the success of treatment regardless of infection would determine if Emergency Use Authorization of a rapidly tested and implemented vaccine is still appropriate (along with the growing pressure to promote a third booster). </p><p>The lack of data concerning antibody prevelance is also a missing data point. Looking at the <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#nationwide-blood-donor-seroprevalence" target="_blank">serology data collected by the CDC</a>, it is strange the blood donation data ceases to be reported after February 2021 (note it says updated as of 6/21/2021).</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><img alt="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#nationwide-blood-donor-seroprevalence" border="0" data-original-height="883" data-original-width="1197" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihcvoOqH_TL8Im4itfMRq5TBrd1ey2xWRRq5U8PAfWqL_K4xqWTTo56vMril7uDu8v-JZ5FnGCJL2Swwx5ptGb9iHQ7qfMSr0N9bNiPth3pmST77vNJ2JuykxH-xJMDpl4BUMzdnFCvMQ/w400-h295/SeroprevelanceBloodDonor.PNG" title="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#nationwide-blood-donor-seroprevalence" width="400" /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">As a frequent blood donor myself, this data could also be sorted by those vaccinated, unvaccinated and previous Covid-19 infections. I have had positive antibodies since January 13, 2021 demonstrating that even a weak Covid-19 infection yields seven months of antibody protection. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">What disturbs me is the growing media pressure aimed at the unvaccinated population implicating them as the cause of variants, carriers of infection (symptomatic or asymptomatic) - both domestic and international (when in fact the vaccine is unavailable to many countries). There is no reporting about immunity or asymptomatic antibodies prevelant in the population.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">There is no pressure on the pharmecutical companies to continue clinical testing of the original vaccines for verification of efficacy and long term implications (note the EAU clinical trials were unblinded). In a rush to report, study after study of small sample size, non controlled, and statistically invalid studies are being reported (both pro and con) about various conditions (long haul effects, vaccine reactions, variant variables, etc.). </div><p>Bottom Line - It boils my blood :)</p><p>Addendum 7/26/2021: I just noticed an interesting May 19,2021 FDA safety communication <a href="https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/safety-communications/antibody-testing-not-currently-recommended-assess-immunity-after-covid-19-vaccination-fda-safety" target="_blank">" Antibldy Testing is not Currently recommended to assess Immunity after COVID-19 Vaccination" </a></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Times; font-size: 18px;"><i>"While a positive antibody test result can be used to help identify people who may have had a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, more research is needed in people who have received a COVID-19 vaccination."</i></span></p><p>So .... if you can't trust antibody tests ..... what can you trust for determining any form of immunity or protection from infection? </p><p><a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-brief-fda-advises-against-use-sars-cov-2-antibody-test-results-evaluate-immunity-or-protection" target="_blank">FDA in Brief : FDA Advises Against Use of SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Test Results to Evaluate Immunity or Protection from COVID-19, Including after Vaccination </a></p><p><a href="https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-emergency-use-authorizations-medical-devices/in-vitro-diagnostics-euas-serology-and-other-adaptive-immune-response-tests-sars-cov-2" target="_blank">In Vitro Diagnostics EUAs - Serology and Other Adaptive Immune Response Tests for SARS- CoV-2</a></p><p><a href="https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/antibody-serology-testing-covid-19-information-patients-and-consumers" target="_blank">Antibody (Serology) Testing for COVID-19: Information for Patients and Consumers </a></p><p><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/resources/antibody-tests-guidelines.html" target="_blank">Interim Guidelines for COVID-19 Antibody Testing</a> (From the CDC)</p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Times; font-size: 18px;"><i><br /></i></span></p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-81905246088714435072021-05-28T11:02:00.006-04:002021-05-28T11:02:36.239-04:00The Grandfather Club<p> What a inexcusable oversight - the birth of Theodore Lee Robinson in April. This inducted me into the Grandparents Club and reminded me of A.M.'s wisdom 10+ years ago. I was in my 50's and developing my "Decade Planning Document" along with a <a href="https://garenwisner.blogspot.com/2013/01/cart-before-horse.html">Vistage Presentation on Longevity</a>. Since my timeline of family life events was about 10 years behind A.M. and others, I asked the question -"What one lesson (words of wisdom) of your last decade would you share for me as I embark into my 60's? I remember A.M.'s response distinctly: "I totally underestimated the Grandfather thing!". </p><p>My first unsupervised babysitting of Teddy was Wednesday evening as Paul was subbing for me at tennis. The memories caring for Jenna and Ellen as infants flooded into my mind as I was revisiting the football hold, the diaper techniques, burping, rocking and keeping calm in the face of crying. The hour and half reminded me of how exhausting newborn's can be. The difference as a Grandfather - the handoff to the Mom :)</p><p>This weekend I will miss the Wells Family Reunion which yearly honors the generations. Dad and Aunt Revae (now 105) will be spotlighted. The memories of prior generations are the foundations for the new generation to utilize in stewarding forward. Teddy now enters the world with hope and joy. The Grandfather club starts the process of passing the memory baton.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-4600413095533295062021-05-27T08:57:00.003-04:002021-05-27T08:57:27.666-04:00Measuring Belief<p> Susan just got her blood test back indicating "Reactive" Antibodies - translated by the Nurse Practioner that she has a positive test showing proof of antibodies. Yet at no time did Susan exhibit symptoms of COVID-19 and in fact was tested at least twice for COVID-19 that was negative. These facts would point to an example of an asymptomatic individual not counted in the almost 34 million USA COVID-19 positive cases. </p><p>Statistically not sound but worthy of note is that in my family nucleus of now six people with constant contact - two had symptomatic COVID, one asymptomatic, and three unknowns. Using normal media extrapolation that would say 50% of the population has been infected with three still unknown. So it would be natural that COVID cases diminishing. Do you get the point?</p><p>Numbers (single integer series) are a strange thing as time and growth occur. Fractions and percentages are even more complicated when the numerator and denominator change daily. </p><p>When the skeptics wanted to prove that COVID-19 was no worse than the flu, they used a multiple of 10 times the positive cases for the denominator using sample sizes like my example above. When various countries (e.g. Sweden, India) declared "victory" on herd immunity, they used small samples and extrapolated that to the population as a whole. Yet all these analysis were proved in error. </p><p>So declaring victory about the efficacy of a vaccine less than 150 days into implementation in a population base of 34 million known previously infected COVID 19 individuals (likely understated by a multiple of 2-4 times) is a guess without measuring COVID positive cases in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.</p><p>So why does the CDC stop measuring this simple statistic? Why does the CDC continue to promote a voluntary database of incidents? Why does the CDC re-set the breakthrough cases on May 1 of only hospitalizations and deaths? Why does the CDC only measure breakthrough cases of 14 days after the fully vaccinated? Why does the CDC not measure COVID cases of previously infected individuals? Why does the medical community insist on vaccination of individuals with antibodies and/or not test for antibodies prior to vaccination?</p><p>I have a new term for this - measure only what you believe. Something the religious community is criticized for by the materialistic community. </p><p><br /></p><p> </p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-12967743006452563672021-05-10T11:34:00.001-04:002021-05-10T11:34:56.069-04:00Vaccine Vicissitudes<p> My blood started to boil this morning as I continue to read the cascading avalanche of publicity encouraging vaccination - every age, every individual, the entire world. The fact the vaccinations are authorized only under emergency use has conveniently been forgotten. The belief of the vaccination effectiveness is justified with any numbers that anyone wants to use.</p><p>I personally believe Vitamin C helps prevent the common cold. Yet the efficacy and effectiveness is still unproven. The same could be said of this vaccination. Yet it is being reported as fact.</p><p>Here is an article from the Detroit Free Press: <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/2021/05/06/why-contracting-covid-does-not-help-herd-immunity-goals/4959881001/" target="_blank">"Why people who have contracted COVID-19 don't count toward herd immunity" </a></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #303030; font-family: "Georgia Pro", Georgia, "Droid Serif", serif; font-size: 18px;">“Contracting COVID does not create the kind of immunity we’re looking for,” Ingham County Health Officer Linda Vail said.</span></p><p>A county official is now the epidemiological expert on herd immunity! Apparently she hasn't read the non peer reviewed medical study: </p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><a href="SARS-CoV-2 antibodies remain detectable 12 months after infection and antibody magnitude is associated with age and COVID-19 severity" target="_blank">SARS-CoV-2 antibodies remain detectable 12 months after
infection and antibody magnitude is associated with age and COVID-19
severity<o:p></o:p></a></b></p>But this lack of balanced reporting might be excused except as each state begins to report "Breakthrough Cases" there is a constant rush to judgement of effectiveness of vaccination.<p></p><div>Here's a good example - Beacon Falls, Connecticut - Citizens News May 10, 2021 -<a href="https://www.mycitizensnews.com/news/state-reports-covid-cases-deaths-among-fully-vaccinated-people/" target="_blank"> "State reports COVID cases, deaths among fully vaccinated people" </a>. 242 people are Breakthrough Cases (14 days after fully vaccinated) among 1.4 fully immunized state residents (presumably 14 days after immunization). </div><div><br /></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">“The main takeaway is that COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective and cases of infection after a person is fully vaccinated are very rare,” said Dr. Deidre Gifford, the acting DPH commissioner.</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></div><div>It could be this conclusion is 100% correct - infections is very rare after vaccination. But this data does not prove that conclusion. But you say ...... 0.1% (242 divided by 1.4 million) is proof enough isn't it?</div><div><br /></div><div>NO! Now you ask WHY NOT?</div><div><br /></div><div>(1) The "fully immunized" population is suspect and likely overstated. Has the 14 days passed? Did anyone get COVID within the 21 -28 two dose inoculation?</div><div><br /></div><div>(2) How many non tested, non hospitalized immunized people contract COVID-19 and did not report it?</div><div><br /></div><div>(3) How does this compare to the non immunized population in the early days of COVID-19 when no vaccination was required? To make the point there were only 213 people with COVID on 3/08/2020 out of 330 million.</div><div><br /></div><div>(4) Do the lifestyles of immunized patients mirror the lifestyles of the non immunized? Maybe that population is more cautious and less susceptible to infection regardless of vaccination.</div><div><br /></div><div>(5) Not even 1 million had been fully vaccinated in the USA by 1/10/2021) - that is over a year after COVID-19 appeared. By 1/10/2021 22.9 million positive cases had been reported in USA. Using even a low multiple of 2 times that would be about 46 million people had already gotten COVID-19 (13.8% of the population). The probability of contracting COVID for the remaining 286 million has changed (vaccinated or not). </div><div><br /></div><div>(6) No one knows what % is needed for "herd immunity"</div><div><br /></div><div>(7) If you used the "fully immunized" group only as your measure. The chance of COVID-19 infection has only run it's course for 4 months. At four months there were only 1 million positive cases of COVID-19 in 2020 out of a population of 332 million. That percent is 0.3%. You wouldn't report back then that "cases are very rare".</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>So if I was a new parent (my new Grandparent status does not count) with young children ages 4-12 would I vaccinate my child? </div><div><br /></div><div>Not yet!</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-990254838802308542021-05-05T14:18:00.002-04:002021-05-05T14:21:02.552-04:00Vaccination Variables<p> It's time for me to weigh in on vaccination hesitancy. </p><p><span style="font-size: x-small;">First disclaimers.... I have been researching risks and rewards of vaccination only recently and I am clearly not an epidemiologist or vaccination expert. I have a bias related to Jenna's diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes (Jan 2019) directly after a bad reaction to a required flu shot (all nurses were encouraged/required to get a flu shot) in addition to the fact I have never had a flu shot myself. Also I tend to be the equivalent of a Christian Scientist that minimizes all drugs and chemicals in my body. However I tend to have a philosophy of utilitarianism in evaluating cost/benefits in moral behavior. I have had COVID-19 (a mild case 12/7/2020) and survived with proof of the antibodies in my blood. I have not had any direct family members who have died as a result of COVID-19 (although you could say my Dad's passing might be indirectly related). I'm a rusty statistician and have strong opinions about proper statistical analysis, terms and protocol. I have not received the vaccination and have purposely deferred the decision with the expectation (maybe misguided) that my antibodies give me the necessary protection short tern against reinfection with the variants. </span></p><p>Now to the point - I believe the "herd effect" promotion of vaccination is driving momentum to rush to judgement about it's efficacy. The general population (including the media) misunderstanding of efficacy and effectiveness (along with the fear both serious illness and/or death) has driven the herd to rapidly jump to vaccination as the defacto solution to the pandemic. Finally - as a rusty statistician - I am appalled by the data not being collected; the lack of control groups; and the rush to judgement on non peer reviewed, small sample size, laboratory based theories, that are being revealed as science proven population truths. There are long term risks that we can't predict - unknown costs that only time will reveal. </p><p>Weighing this viewpoint against the altruistic "duty" to others becomes the central emotional variable that divides the vaccinated from the unvaccinated (in addition to each individual's self fear of getting the virus). It is that moral dilemma that I have studied rigorously for the past 10 years. My best recommendation is to read "Justice - What's the Right Thing to Do" or listen to Sandel's Harvard Lectures. </p><p>The press, government (CDC), and vaccinated group would aspire to the practical viewpoint that the few casualties associated with the vaccine over-ride the benefits for the entire population (while justifying that -as and example- the blood clots are not any more than what is experienced in the pre vaccination world). This says a few deaths are worth "saving" the many. Yet this same logic could be applied in the macro view - 570K deaths for the 330M affected by non medical interventions (economic shutdown; educational casualties; etc. etc.). Using numbers (particularly percentages) and elapsed time are the fundamental ways to erroneously argue the philosophy. </p><p>But numbers don't count in the emotional world of individual decision making. Reason and logic will never trump the spirit and soul inside. It takes a higher order of philosophy to determine the truth. It takes looking into the heart to understand motive and action. </p><p>"Inside the envelope of patience there are many letters of forgiveness." Time is the currency of patience. COVID has been with us well over 500 days and will likely be with us permanently. There is much we don't know but we do not have to fear the unknown. </p><p><br /></p><p> </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p> </p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-80149841351187073912021-04-28T16:11:00.004-04:002021-04-28T16:11:56.113-04:00The Data Tells Me So<p> As a closet (and old) Statistician, I am very disturbed about the data analysis going on around COVID-19 - the clinical trials, the data reported about breakthrough cases, the death data, hospitalizations, comorbidity, .. etc. etc. And the old adage "The Devil is in the Detail" totally applies. </p><p>Add to this Devil Data Detail problem is the Media Mania Mega horn creating confirming bias in the face of the large spectrum of human fear, uncertainty and doubt. Then you have the desire to correlate political views into a divisive intellectual divide of blaming, shaming, and defaming each other. </p><p>I recognize this is a global moving target of information, science, and parity. Another global humanity test on the scale of World War survival impact. How we respond globally and not nationally will be how we measure success. India (who declared premature victory) and Brazil (who declared premature fearlessness) are now suffering. The USA, UK and Israel now cautiously tempted to forecast freedom are in danger of their own nationalistic premature conclusions of what we believe "the science tells us".</p><p>Unfortunately the data is still in process. 150 million known (or estimated) positive COVID-19 cases and 3.157 million deaths is just a drop in the bucket of an estimated world population of 7.86 Billion (as of 4pm EST). This is still considered a small sample size to Statisticians. </p><p>As a confirmed skeptic, the data I look at only provides "recent-cy bias" (if that's a word) for those declaring victory. The only certainty I claim is that the healthcare science knows .... what it knows but doesn't know (or publish) what it doesn't know. The famous Donald Rumsfeld quote that set the reporters into paradoxical philosophy - "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_known_knowns">There are Known Knowns</a>". </p><p>Please don't tell me - "The Science Tells Me So"; or "The Data Tells Me So"; </p><p><br /></p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-993099247592234461.post-61905555457746143712021-04-21T11:20:00.002-04:002021-04-21T11:20:36.357-04:00Chainsaw Grieving and Grace<p>It all started (November 2020) with an idea from the Book Club group after we read "Peace is Every Step: The Path of Mindfulness in Everyday Life by Thich Nhat Hanh. That idea converged with K.C.'s announcement that he had a new gadget - a battery operated chainsaw. Putting those two "nudges" together, I decided to create a "Prayer Path" in our backyard forest. </p><p>The Amazon Easter Bunny arrived with my new ECHO 16 in Cordless Chainsaw April 3 (yes it takes that long for me to ponder new projects). Of course the previous four months I was doing analysis/paralysis on which Chainsaw to purchase and getting great advice and Youtube links from A.M. (and others).</p><p>Many people warned me of the challenges of cutting down the evasive honeysuckle and specifically J.R. told me not to use the chainsaw on the small stuff. But did I listen to him...... NOooooooooo,</p><p>Now to the story :)</p><p>On the second time out (Sat. Apr. 10, 2021) I continued my project of clearing out the honeysuckle. Two hours into the project the chain slipped off the 16 inch saw blade. Hmmmm, could it be because I was lazy and was using the chainsaw on the small roots like a sickle? Tired and irritated that I had not taken J.R.'s advice, I sat down to grumble..... and then grief set in. </p><p>In situations like this, my first phone call would have been to Dad. Somehow Dad had not passed down the handyman gene to me. In fact, instead of patiently finding the user manual and tackling the job myself, my normal mode of operation would be to just call DAD for HELP and instruction. But that 65 year old reliable help line was disconnected. </p><p>Unwilling to risk the "non handyman guy embarrassment", I had no courage to try a different help line call to J.R., A.M. or any of my other handyman backups. To call them for instruction would risk losing my handyman self esteem. To lazy to go get the user manual, I decided to just figure this out by trial and error.</p><p>After re-attaching the chain, I dutifully retrieved the loppers from the garage and began manually cutting the small roots of the honeysuckle correctly until the next three inch diameter root appeared. Time for my newly attached chain with the chainsaw!!! At the press of the button and connection to the root.... - the chain acted as if would take a year to cut completely through the root. I HAD PUT THE CHAIN ON BACKWARDS!</p><p>Sitting down again... knowing the rule my Dad always followed - "As you take things apart, carefully document and lay out the exact configuration for re-assembly" thoughts of failure reentered my mind. Next step ... actually trudge up the hill to find the user manual that I had been told to always put in a place I would remember with all other user manuals. Another rule of thumb I constantly had ignored.</p><p>Luckily, I found the manual, spent the time to read the instructions, and reapplied the chain. In seconds the chain sliced through the root and my handyman stature and manly self esteem was reinstated. </p><p>Now it was time for confession. I popped off a text to A.M. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv4-BZiFMUKVgouiE7A-bE72yKIUeQeF6Cb7hRHWnkfKch6QC2WKEh_8Vq-O0RuNTEWHHy5MX9axJ5f-Odr6272vK04gSYkcL80Tz9xCxsg3N6JCEOlCmY7iktFrz_Q_Q-BjvdAfILnSA/s936/Chainsaw.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="837" data-original-width="936" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv4-BZiFMUKVgouiE7A-bE72yKIUeQeF6Cb7hRHWnkfKch6QC2WKEh_8Vq-O0RuNTEWHHy5MX9axJ5f-Odr6272vK04gSYkcL80Tz9xCxsg3N6JCEOlCmY7iktFrz_Q_Q-BjvdAfILnSA/s320/Chainsaw.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>What a comforting text back from A.M. after both grieving and feeling unworthy. We all need GRACE in our times of trouble and sorrow. That GRACE washes away our grieving and self imposed lies of unworthiness. The light of love emerges from the depths of darkness. Follow the path of light.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR_5WLCwlmGRFfUpm21qNaqi8GADm5eGEm_dIs6gmrfZARKJUaGpt4qI4PcZJmKzLNDZ4bhyphenhyphenB4oxti8wPFd39uL_ciGOOwm9Wrbj7Gi9gZCyDZ2yqKWnzfeKa3fb7PF8t1mC-tsEP60Lo/s2048/IMG_20210418_173450208.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR_5WLCwlmGRFfUpm21qNaqi8GADm5eGEm_dIs6gmrfZARKJUaGpt4qI4PcZJmKzLNDZ4bhyphenhyphenB4oxti8wPFd39uL_ciGOOwm9Wrbj7Gi9gZCyDZ2yqKWnzfeKa3fb7PF8t1mC-tsEP60Lo/s320/IMG_20210418_173450208.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Garen Wisnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09829047273302376796noreply@blogger.com0