Cocooning

The effect of globalization is front and center during this perfect storm of Corona Virus Pandemic, Oil fights, and globally fluid capital markets.  The only industry benefiting from this panic is likely the 24 hour news.  

The S&P is down 30% in a matter of days.  Travel and Entertainment is locked down in a matter of days also.  It demonstrates how fragile the feeling of security can be - emotionally, financially, physically, and …. for some spiritually.  As Warren Buffet says - "You never know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out".   

I'm amazed at the distribution of attitudes about the rapid response by our Federal and State leaders.  The challenge of absorbing the various media bias (including social media) and the lack of understanding of statistics and numbers has contributed to both extremes of fear and indifference.  

Personally this has affected me in the cancellation of my trip to visit Dad in the Nursing home.  Susan and the girls also cancelled their spring break vacation to Arizona.  On the financial side - like others net worth (on paper) drops at least 20%.  Aside from the personal social distancing, this feels eerily like the great recession of 2007 and 2008.  Since my blogging only started in August 2009, only my manual journals (Spiritual and Financial) have any measure of my emotions and actions at that time.

Over the weekend, I decided to create my own forecast using the numbers from the World Health Organization situation reports.  In our data hungry world the numbers are suspect from even this source.  The two most important numbers are the daily rate of growth in new cases and the rate of growth in recoveries (and by default deaths).  Once again the human mind just has difficulty understanding the power of growth (April 16, 2012 Growth and Patience) and patience.  T.A. in our Vistage meeting talked about the dangers of nervous energy - on health, finances and relationships.  This time is no exception -  it is a time for patience and careful reflection. 

If this virus is growing at 30% daily (doubles about every 3 days) in USA (which is about what the W.H.O. shows since 3/1/2020) and the hospitalization rate is 20% of cases then we run out of hospital bed in the USA by about 4/13/2020 (assuming a discharge rate of prior admissions every 7 days).  The CNBC news states the doubling rate is every 6 days (about a 12% growth rate) and using that assumption my cryptic spreadsheet models a run out of beds by 5/21/2020.  That's not much to be encouraged about.  

Now the good news - if we can trust the Chinese Data -  the exponential curve of new cases peaks at about 16 - 24 days (but very dependent of population diligence in distancing).

This data seems to be consistent with the South Korean numbers (about 26 days) as it potentially is peaking.  The next few days will be critical to watch.

In Ohio there are 37 cases identified and 350 in testing.  The real answer about the risk of the virus is a local issue and community response.  For me - I'm cocooning.

Big Brother Watching

In 2019 I traveled 19,398 miles (equivalent to 78% around the world) and stopped in 6 Countries/Regions, 139 Cities and 521 places.  So says Google Maps Timeline.

Data gathered from my Google Fi Phone, my privacy is non existent as it applies to Google watching my movements  (at least as long as my phone is on and on me).  How Google defines a Region/City and Place is a question but the overall map shows the real picture.

Clearly I could turn off the location history on my phone - so it is my choice that Google can use my location to market data and news to me phone.  Also there are data analytics analysts trying to correlate this location data with consumer preferences.  

Personally, the only benefit I see in having this data is the ability to jog one's memory about where you were on a specific day or time in 2019.   

I guess Big Brother is not the government - it is Google.

Christmas ecard 2019

   Wisner Family (et al) December 2019

"May His Blessings light your way and bring joy to your hearts this Christmas"

Blue Mountain e-card

It was a year of medical matters – major malaise, mishap, Medicare mystery and DM- Diabetes mellitus.  Yet, even with physical and spiritual attacks, we relied on faith, family and friends to emerge Brave, Bravely, Bold and Fearless this year.   Read on:

Ellen (BRAVE) – The i-fly flight didn’t cause shortness of breath but convinced Ellen she would ignore Dad’s advice and become parachute “worthy”.  Luckily she will stay in the plane when she drops into see D’Lane and Ann in Scottsdale.  Crossfit groupies felt a partial identity loss when Ellen accepted an internship at the Sports Mall. Just three semesters from early graduation at U.C. the key question is will her Finance degree stabilize or will she Master something else?

Jenna and Paul Robinson (BRAVELY) – “I see you” is not a juvenile game when blood sugars are high.  Jenna is now attached to the medical device industry in addition to her excellent patient care at Christ Hospital.  Paul steadies the Robinson/Wisner roots by intertwining Emmaus Walk #103 with a USI promotion.  BRAVELY this pair takes on the challenge of T1D management even with auction accidents, Dexcom outages, and healthcare enrollment math.

Susan – (BOLD) – Nothing this year was easy – not even Emmaus Walk #123.  Drains, phones and falls, oh brother it was a challenge!  She reluctantly accepts no more Lipp and remained silent at the Abbey using her spiritual backup to fight Screwtape’s attacks.  Even the Tahoe’s have blind spots.  Her BOLD motherly protection instincts have combated the obstacles that medicine can’t solve. 

Garen – (FEARLESS) – A man without fear, Garen needed to re-subscribe in several areas.  He hit the oil jackpot only to tie for second place (in a field of three) for the Jefferson Award.  Testing his own blood for three months made him wonder How God Makes Men.  Sixty-five years forced him back into medical money mania – code named IRMAA.  Needing time to research Medicare, he dropped Miami Mock Recruiting to sign up for the ILR (Miami Institute of Learning in Retirement). Garen chose Lord Byron’s Drug Plan Z – “Always laugh when you can – its cheap medicine.”

The family zipped down to Austin for Dayna and Sam’s wedding and travel this year was exclusively concentrated on family affairs (Naples, Akron, Derby, Scottsdale, Chautauqua).  May we know that “family first” is an important prescription..

The Grinch of 2019 has not dried up our spirit.   We are so grateful for our family and friends support.

Love is the antidote to suffering. We pray that the medicine of Christ will heal your spirit and put joy in your heart also.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

“A joyful heart is good medicine, but a crushed spirit dries up the bones”.   Proverbs 17:22

Screwtape Letters Revisited

Last night Susan and I attended the performance of Screwtape Letters by the Fellowship for Performing Arts.  Theatre from a Christian worldview that engages a diverse audience was worthy of consideration for gifting.  It was about 6 years ago that we attended the Great Divorce by the same group and we both hope to see C.S. Lewis on stage: The Most Reluctant Convert when it comes to Cincinnati.

Most enjoyable was hearing from Max McClean the actor and founder of the Fellowship for Performing Arts.  His question and answer postlude was enlightening.  When asked about the humor in the performance his quote (which I will butcher) was that "the laughter of people allows the truth to enter their open mouths".

The number of performances that FPA does at college campuses creates ministry of Christian nudges for a broad audience of students and particularly for those aspiring to enter the field of theatre.  What a wonderful way to seed the very souls of individuals that may never have been exposed to the great religious philosophers.

I think the plays are more meaningful for those who have read the C.S. Lewis books. It was surprising the number of people who raised their hands when asked who had not read Screwtape Letters.

C.S. Lewis said "I can't imagine a man really enjoying a book and reading it only once".  Watching Screwtape Letters will cause me to read it for the third time.

https://fpatheatre.com/

Double Tithe-ation

Crossroads Church is almost done with a Sermon series based on the book "The Blessed Life" by Robert Morris.  It is an excellent spiritual book that addresses the Biblical "rules" for giving.  Giving the FIRST 10% of your treasure - the tithe - is explained in detail.  Too often the devil is in the details. People ask - "Is the tithe on Gross Earnings or Net Earnings" or "Should my tithe be on AGI or Taxable Income"?

Susan has a friend that even created a more complex variable - what to do with 401K pretax earnings saved- since at retirement these distributions will be income (and taxed that way also).  If one tithes on Gross Income before 401K savings deductions and then tithes on the distributions during retirement is this....... Double Tithing?   Double Tithe-ation :)

I'm sure the answer is: "Tithing is in the eye of the Beholder" and "We Become what we Hold".

Just remember who the Ultimate Beholder is.

Rules of Life

It was my 13th Spotlight for Vistage (10/17/2019) and I decided the theme would be "Rules of Life".  Inspired by my original thought to have a mathematical equation depicting each rule, instead I performed an audible and had each Vistage member provide their own "Rule of Life".  Stay tuned for a blog about each of those rules once I have interviewed them and got the story behind their rule.

Not willing to give up on my original idea, I did present one equation (a rule of life)  that I hope I have passed on to my girls. 

I have already blogged about this magical equation - the power of compounding principle.  The Urban Myths that Einstein said this principle was the eighth wonder of the world, or the most powerful force in the universe is worth spreading.  I've already blogged about this with graphs included:

Mysterious Compounding and Powers - Growth or Patience  (4/15 &16 2012)

J.D. quipped - "Just like you Garen to make a Rule of Life totally financial".  "No"  I replied.   Delivering an act of kindness or one of your character principles to influence someone else can also compound.  Just change the variables:

P= What principles are you delivering to influence people in your life?
r = What ROL (Return on Life) are you using to grow those principles in others (e.g. what % of the people that you touch receive your gift)
n = How often are you being deliberate about your influence - yearly, quarterly, monthly, daily or continuously
t= Over what time period are you doing this and how much time do you have left?

In a providential way, I happened upon the book "Make your Bed" by Admiral William H. McRaven (U.S. Navy Retired) and discovered it's origin from his May 17, 2014 University of Texas Commencement Speech.  He said what I've always felt about the power of giving to others and changing one individual at a time - in less than 300 words:

"The University's slogan is 'What starts here changes the world". I have to admit, I kind of like it. "What starts here changes the world!"

Tonight there are almost eight thousand students graduating from the University of Texas.  That great paragon of analytical rigor, Ask.com, says that the average American will meet ten thousand people in their lifetime.  That's a lot of folks.  But, if every one of you changed the lives of just ten people, and each one of those folks changed the lives of another ten people - just ten - then in five generations - 125 years - the class of 2014 will have changed the lives of 800 million people. 

EIGHT HUNDRED MILLION people. Think of  it: over twice the population  of the United States.  Go one more generation and you can change the entire population of the world, eight billion people.  If you think it's hard to change the lives of ten people, change their lives forever, you're wrong.

I saw it happen every day in Iraq and Afghanistan.  A young Army officer makes a decision to go left instead of right down a road in Baghdad and the ten soldiers in his squad are saved from a close-in-ambush.

In Kandahar province, Afghanistan, a non-commissioned officer from the Female Engagement Tam senses something isn't right and directs the infantry  platoon away from a five-hundred-pound IED, saving the lives of a dozen soldiers.

But, if you think about it, not only were these soldiers saved by the decisions of one person, but their children yet unborn were also saved. And their children's children were saved.  Generations were saved by one decision, by one person.

But changing the world can happen anywhere, and anyone can do it.  So, what starts here can indeed change the world, but the question is: What will the world look like after you change it?

There's a spiritual message embedded deep inside this mysterious principle of compounding.  Maybe Einstein really did think this was the most powerful force in the universe. What is behind this mysterious powerful principle - who created it and for what purpose?   It is worth spreading - Belief in our Creator, his infinite love, and his gift of salvation.

Hurricane Tracking

Watching the path of Hurricane Dorian (now one of the worst Hurricane's in history- above Category 5), caused me to recall the only Hurricane that I have experienced first hand.  When living in Slidell Louisiana (near New Orleans), our family sat through the "eye" of Hurricane Betsy in 1965.   Only a Category 4 in winds, based on the Hurricane Severity Index it is still tied for #2 Most Severe Landfalling Atlantic Hurricanes.

My memories were playing football out in the back yard during the early stages (it hit New Orleans the evening of Sept. 9, 1965).  Mom and Dad called us inside and within the hour a large pine branch had fallen directly where we were playing.  D'Lane and I both remember the large pine trees (trunks with diameters of 3 feet) with the tips bent totally to the ground.  Luckily no tree snapped or hit our house.  Dad had taped the windows but probably wished he had boarded them instead. Mom said that not evacuating was one of her poorest decisions.  Luckily no disasters for our family.

What amazed me is the path and predicted path of Dorian on MSN interactive site:

Dorian August 31 - Sept 4, 2019  10am

And the Historical path of Hurricane Betsy 1965:

Hurricane Betsy  Aug 27 - Sept 12 1965

I wonder if they predicted the path of Betsy 1965 with any of the precision that they now have for Hurricane Dorian 2019.

As a 10 year old child this was just another exciting day to remember.  The innocence of not being aware of natures power and potential destruction at that age, coupled with no tragedy of experience, allows that memory to be a good one.  I'm sure there are others not so fortunate.