Coronvirus Lockdown Remorse

To reopen or not to reopen - that is the media question of the day.

Already doubt is setting into the minds of those taking swift lockdown measures.   It's like "Coronavirus lockdown remorse" - as cabin fever sets in and economic malaise appears on retirement savings statements.  The DNA of the USA is our risk taking entrepreneurs and they (like me) have the temptation to measure the costs and benefits of this crisis.  Then using the utilitarian philosophical model of the greatest good as measured in total utility we can make the logical Spock like decision.   But how does this apply in human life. 

Spock in his final exchange with Captain Kirk gasps  "The needs of the many......" and Kirk finishes for him "outweigh the needs of the few". 

How appropriate that J.P. and I on Saturday re-watched Michael Sandel's  first four lectures from his book "Justice - What's the Right Thing to Do?"

You can add to this philosophical debate the attempt to allocate money to those in pain and you can see why Congress can't agree on a stimulus package.  Re-read the quote as you reflect on OPEC's fight about production of oil allocated among the Saudis and Russians. Measuring utility will always create disagreements.   

How appropriate that my Bible devotional today was Matthew 16:26  "For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world and forfeits his soul?  Or what shall a man give in return for his soul?"

What happens when you reverse the quote -  "The needs of the few, outweigh the needs of the many" - suddenly you enter the world of human rights - the very soul that God created.  There is no measurement of human life or the soul - it is infinite. Nothing finite can be given for something of infinite value.

When worldly crisis and suffering tests our resolve - it is the mathematics of the many weighed against the few that will measure our humanity - and determine the return for our soul.





 

Is the Light at the......

Today as I arose to go to my office for the last time until the Ohio lockdown is lifted, I looked out our master bedroom window an saw complete blackness.   A normal morning would see the twinkling lights of Milford, Terrace Park, Newtown and the commercial areas in-between. Granted the eerie fog was cloaking the distant lighting, but I can't remember a morning when it was completely dark.

Yet the sun rose and the light emerges.  But in the tunnel of the virus contagion and economic panic each day brings more fear and darkness into our minds.  

K.C. sent me an interesting site to add to my data sources for modeling Worldometer. Finally, I discovered a chart worth pondering:

The beginning tunnel - Death rate 41.8% vs Recovery Rate 58.2  -  very scary.   Today's opening - Death rate 12.93% and Recovery rate 87.07%  - much more comforting.   But it is a moving target day by day.   The concern is the two curves are not flat yet AND..... only 32% of the known cases have outcomes.  That is because it can take 24 days (that is my guess at a number)  to determine an actual outcome.   

Now - for the higher math.  The key to any exponential chart is to view the logarithmic chart which converts an exponential chart to linear view.  Again bad news - the line is not yet straight to yield a rate of change that is consistent.  We were feeling good from 1 to 3, but now the new trend is 4. 

Each day brings new light to new data but no visibility to the future.  But as long as there is light there is hope.  

Sieze the Day - EVERYDAY MATTERS

Everyday matters in the containment of COVID-19.  As a statistician and numbers obsessed individual, I have been tracking my own spreadsheet of growth rates and predictions for the USA, Ohio and Cincinnati..  My first discovery is the problem with public data sources, timing, and the relative misinformation (or misinterpretation) provided by various sources of well intended reporters doing their own analysis (like me).

As I have previously pointed out, you should focus on what most matters - outcomes - which  means deaths and recoveries (life). The absolute number of recoveries (96,958) is increasing slowly (growth rate is 3.3%) while the absolute number of deaths (14,573) is increasing rapidly (growth rate 12.5%).  The growth rate of worldwide infections is 11% percent and based on cumulative infections to day the death percentage is 4.3%  and slowly inching up  (based on worldwide data - 340K infections and 14.6K deaths). What do all these numbers really mean?

This data analysis is a moving target. So here is a case where the input of new infections is like a fire hose filling a water bucket while the data about the outcomes of death and recovery are only a few tiny holes letting the water out of the bucket. We are trying to plug the death holes and widen the recovery holes while trying to slow the rate of water going into the bucket. Since the outcome holes are small and are slow in flow (5% or less) , the most important variable is the input - which is overwhelmingly large and fast in flow (11% Worldwide). The bucket is filling rapidly!

With that in mind, I have concentrated my thinking with the rate of input - compound growth rate of new infections in the USA and Ohio (35.9% and 45% respectively).   Next most important question is to determine when that growth rate begins to diminish - predicting the PEAK of the growth rate curve (with the only data available and suspect - Wuhan and China).

Using March 1 as a starting point in the USA with 62 cases of COVID-19, I have been tracking with various data sources reporting the cumulative number of infections in the USA , Ohio and most selfishly where I live Cincinnati.  As of 3:00pm EST the USA compound growth rate in infections is 35.9% for 21 days (3/1 - 3/22) and 45% Ohio for 7 days (3/15 - 3/22) and in Cincinnati - no growth rate yet but 4 known cases. To be fair, this analysis assumes a start date in March versus the real ground zero infection point which likely occurred sometime in mid February.

Look at these charts:

This shows why the implicit growth rate is so important and dramatic.  Why we hope that we are on a 20% curve versus a 42% curve and why we hope the curve peaks at 26 days versus 61 days.

This is why the Governors of each state in the USA (like China already has done) are rapidly ordering "draconian" measures to attempt to minimize the  absolute numbers in new infections regardless of the real compound growth rate  and the unknown death rate as a percentage of infections.  This also why EVERYDAY MATTERS!!!!

Next blog entry coming -  WHEN IS THE PEAK?  ---- pray for 26 days or less.

Death provides Life

Susan and I just finished a walk with the dogs and then a Bird Scooter cruise around the neighborhood. It is a chilly but sunny Sunday morning when most are still sleeping evidenced by the Sunday Cincinnati Enquirer and NY Times awaiting proper pickup at the each of the driveway entrances.  There will be plenty of people throughout the USA feeling a bit of cabin fever today.

R.M.2 emailed me a set of beautiful pictures from his walk titled "Serenity and Beauty". The two portraits that struck my eye with beautiful contrast were the black and white and full color photographs of large-leafed waterleaves sending out their basal leaves. 

Courtesy of R.M.2 - 3/19/2020 

"Our Pileated Woodpeckers continue to peck away at a large tree snag.  Death provides life. The trunks of fallen and decaying trees supply nutrients to a variety of mosses and lichens.  Cooperation reigns."  R.M.2 portrays.

Appropriate to the crisis we are experiencing, we have the choice of viewing the events in either black and white or the full vibrancy of color that beauty reveals.  Death provides life - Cooperation reigns.

There will be more death than we desire from this virus and how well we cooperate will be a large determinant of the amount of death that will result.  This death will provide life in many mysterious ways.  New light (life) and color will emerge. Both pictures have beauty!

"Mankind can make progress in the pursuit of Truth. Mankind can also make progress in the sphere of Goodness, advancing from less to more perfect political, social, and economic institutions or arrangements.  But there is no possibility of progress in the sphere of Beauty."  - Mortimer J. Alder "Six Great Ideas".

Only the creator of Beauty can reveal the mystery in "Death provides Life".

New Normal?

Saturday starts a weekend of what may be a "New Normal" for many in the USA.  Several days ago I read the Washington Post article "Coronavirus will radically alter the US".  In that article was the following graph

 

 

Referencing the 1918 Spanish flu, we can expect a second wave of this virus and should begin now to prepare for various scenarios from the best to the worst. 

How can the Investment community prepare their expectations from the best to the worst.  Yet another chart to reference.  This appeared from M.L. (R.M.'s friend) in her firm's newsletter to her clients:

US Financial Services LLC  (973) 882 3600

It's time to take a deep breath and begin planning life in a "New Normal". Some of our leaders have been criticized for calmly saying that "this too shall pass". There is a balance of avoiding panic and preventing complacency needed as we problem solve around this virus.  As my brother (D'Lane) said to me when I was nursing my Dad back from his fall in ICU - "One step at a time".

 

My homegrown spreadsheet model of the growth numbers - World, USA, Ohio still shows greater than 30% growth with a hospitalization between 12% and 25% and no peak in sight.  We are still climbing the rollercoaster with the hope of quickly getting to the top as our fear mounts.  What a relief it will be when we start down the hill!!!

 

How appropriate we want to flatten the virus curve as it heads to the peak.  The faster we flatten it the quicker that same curve (flipped in reverse) will let the stock market bottom. 

 

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TGIF

For Wall Street Investors the adage "Thank God It's Friday" may be an understatement.  As I write this blog at 3:06 EST the DJIA has dropped 16% for the week, 33% for the month.  The market drop is better defined now as contagion - the combination of emotional fear from the economic impact of lockdowns with the Saudi/Russia Oil fight, and a sprinkle of political uncertainty. 

In this environment - cash is king, physical supplies is queen.  This is my second day locked down at the house.  Taking a walk in the neighborhood, it felt like grand central station - cars, people walking, children playing outside, even an Indian Hill Ranger patrolling and stopping to say hello.  Of course it helps that it was a sunny day with temperatures in the 50's.

Ellen cooked some brownies, Jenna was outside playing fetch with her dog Wally, Paul was working making client phone calls, and Susan attempting to collect receivables for her clients.  I sat transfixed on the red and green ups and downs of individual stocks while listening to the gloom and doom of CNBC.

Will the pressure cooker of this week's activity continue to build over the weekend?  With little routine outlets available for weekend decompression, everyone will be trying to find new activities and ways to fill their time.  What a great opportunity to re-evaluate how we spend our time together and what we can do to be emotionally supportive of each other. Like the feeling of being snowed in during a winter storm, we can practice ways to create calm and peace.  Here are some ideas:

(1) Turn off the media
(2) Read a book
(3) How about a puzzle; or art; or a family game
(4) Take a walk outside in the neighborhood
(5) Do one of those home organization projects you have put off indefinitely

Take the time to appreciate your home and feeling safe at home.

Call to Action

Decided to stay at home today and due to various circumstances everyone else was here at home also -  Susan, Ellen, Jenna and Paul. It felt like Thanksgiving or Christmas holiday. Also today was the celebration of  32 years of marriage - with anniversary gifts of Bird Scooters - but unfortunately a rainy day -  so no ability to ride in tandem.

There was  relative calm in the stock market (even with a 1200 point range on the DJIA).  Everyone is figuring out how to live socially with virtual connections.   Friday Morning Men's Fellowship will be via ZOOM web conferencing tomorrow morning.

With continuous updates of news it is hard to concentrate on anything except the future unknown of this virus.  The opportunity for cooperation domestically and internationally is yet another test for all of us.   I enjoyed seeing the Brazil way of promoting this:

Instead of searching for blame and shame, we need to use this crisis for world-wide cooperation in preventing future pandemics.  It demonstrates how futile nationalism is and our interconnectedness is comes with both risks and rewards. 

As boredom sets into the isolation of cocooning, courage to risk face to face relationships will again emerge.  There are countless times Christians "run toward the plagues", stay in the cities to help the suffering, and put their own lives at risk to help others.   Jenna faces this as she returns to work after to cancelled vacation plans. So many Doctors and Nurses will be called upon in this crisis to help others.  They are the front lines - now we are called to back them up.  How will you help?