Famous Last Words

Each night at dinner a candle is lit and the family says grace.  When Ellen was small it was always "God is Great, God is Good, now we thank him for our food".  However, now a designated person reads from "Graces ..  Prayers & Poems for Everyday Meals and Special Occasions" by June Cotner.   This evening Ellen picked the shortest Grace from Chapter 10 (Short Graces): 

"Make yourself a light"  Budda (his last words to his followers). 

So what exactly would be your last words to family, friends and followers?  Budda's words could easily been a tweet at only 21 characters (less than 140 character limitation). 

So in the twitter tradition think of some last words - limited to less than 140 characters that you would whisper at the end.

For some ideas and inspiration, here is the link to famous people's last words  -  http://corsinet.com/braincandy/dying.html.

The best choice of words  ---  "Father, into thy hands I commend my spirit"  - Jesus Christ  (Luke 23:46)

Runaway May

"Sell in May and Walk away" should be changed to "run away".  If tomorrow's stock market follows the Asian markets tonight, it will be a final  Mayday of stock market pain.  May is down over 6% and has given up half of the 12% year to date gain that everyone was cheering about at the end of March.

Managing your emotions in investing is the single most important factor in investment success.  Knowing yourself and your internal chemical reactions to risk and returns can provide a discipline to act methodically and rationally.   For example, yesterday the market was up 1.1% and today it was down 1.4% - yet there was no major change in news (political, international, financial, etc.). 

Even though I know intellectually that you can't time the market, emotionally I have attempted market timing many times (including this latest movement to cash).  But I have always said "the stock market continuously reminds you of your suboptimal performance". 

The best strategy is to establish an asset allocation that corresponds to your risk profile.  Your risk profile is correct when you can ignore the market news and on any large unrealized loss you can sleep properly.  Re balance every year or so back to your original asset allocation and continue to forget about the short term.   This "passive" investment style will give you overall a great long term performance and beat over half of the money managers.

So what's the most worrisome month to invest?

"October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February." -- Mark Twain

Tweet the American Dream

NPR had a segment on the American Dream this morning and asked listeners to submit their dream (pictures/words or both) to them.  I sat down this morning and wrote out my dream - which is related to the Moon Race post.

"I dream of a nation united in peaceful purpose with an audacious goal of freedom for every human being.  Like Andrew Carnegie's gift of public libraries to our nation, we should lead the world to a ubiquitous and free dissemination of public Internet access.  Freedom of ideas can tear down the mental prisons of despair and release the energy of hope throughout the world.  Only then can the American Dream become every one's Dream."

Off to the site to submit my entry - but alas there was a catch.  The Dream could only be 140 Characters! We have become a nation of tweeters.

So here is the Tweet -  "Like Carnegie's gift of Public Libraries, I dream of ubiquitous, free access for everyone, everywhere to the Internet."

Moon Race

When I picked up Dayna at the Dayton Airport on Friday, I asked her if she wanted to go to the Wright Patterson Airforce Museum to see the Airforce One planes (she of course agreed since really it was me that wanted to go).  While touring the four Airforce One planes was fun, the memory gates flooded in to my mind when we walked to the section of the museum where the missile and space exhibits resided (rockets and the actual Apollo 15 command module). Apollo 11 was actual first moon walk mission (July 20, 1969).  The virtual tour of the museum is almost as good as being there!

I remember the excursion Dad and his work buddy took me on at the Mississippi Test Site - where 13,500 acres  (and surrounded by 125,000 acres for acoustical protection) were acquired by  NASA to test the first and second stages of the Saturn V rocket for the Apollo missions to the moon. We drove around the site of abandoned houses and farm areas where pigs and other animals ran wild.  It was like riding through a ghost town.

I called Dad to ask him what stage was being tested at the site - he said stage one but somehow my memory was  stage two.  We were both correct - but the picture I have in my garage I'm sure is stage two :)

It was a fun time growing up during the race to the moon.  It just proves how a project can mobilize a generation and create a national peace time goal (although the "energy" was generated out of the cold war competition with the USSR).  It created a younger generation of space addicted kids (like me) and probably fostered a growth in science and technology in those young baby boomers.  Even the TV comedy sitcoms added to the "brainwashing" - with "I Dream of Jeanie". 

K.C.  (or was it J.D.) and I mused about this 1960's national project in conversation  over a year ago.  The nation needs another audacious goal like putting a man on the moon to ignite and unite the people of this generation to a purpose beyond daily political stalemates. 

What goal do you suggest?

Unofficial Summer

There are all kinds of signals of when summer arrives regardless of the official Solstice date (June 20, 2012 at 7:09pm).  The sun felt close enough over this Memorial Day weekend (94 degrees).  And enough though school is still in session for Jenna and Ellen, the holiday felt like the routine had begun.  Cookouts, Indian Hill Swim Club picnic and swimming, badminton court lined, games, and lazy day naps are all signals of summer. 

Dayna was here to visit after her graduation from Derby high school last week.  So even the excitement of company added to the feeling of summer activities.  So waiting another 24 days to declare it is summer will not work.  Memorial Day should be the real official start of summer (even though this was changed from May 30th to the last Monday in May in 1968). After all - if we can legislate changes in traditional holidays - why not get Congress to act on declaring the official Summer date?

Armstrong has it's traditional service with the Brass Band on Sunday before Memorial Day.  It was another great performance and a time to honor all those who have passed on.  The cemetery was decorated with American flags and the roll call of all the military servicemen ( with names from every war since the revolutionary war) will be announced tomorrow at the 10:30am service.

It is a duty to remember that we stand on the shoulders of all those who served before us.  And it is our duty to prepare our shoulders for others.

Persistence

As you enter my office door the first picture/poster you see is this one.  For a given situation, I can exhibit this trait (call it a character trait) to the extreme.  If you google the word persistence and browse the images there are many visual ways to depict the feeling. 

And at Mom's house there is a derivitive of this picture I found on the internet  (it must be in the genes):

I'm reminded of the Winston Churchill quote in his 1941 speech at Harrow school:
"Never give in--never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy. "

And why are these thoughts on my mind?   Ask Susan, Jenna, and Ellen as I continue to fight for CBT's DSL line at home   (against the evil force of Time Warner - the enemy)

Thanks to K.M. for his email encouragement for persistence:  "We’ve come to far to give up at this point."

 

Minimize the Downside

From William Bernstein’s book – “The Investor’s ManIfesto  …  Preparing for Prosperity, Armagedddon, and Everything In Between”  - he says:  “Finally, never, ever forget Pascal’s Wager as it applies to investing:  The name of the game is not to get rich, but rather to avoid dying poor.”

P.S. Pascal was a famous French philosopher  and mathematician who defended his belief in GOD with this logic:

 (1) Suppose GOD does not exist ----  The atheist “wins” and the believer “loses”.

or

(2) If GOD does EXIST ---  The believer “wins” and the atheist “loses”

The consequences of being wrong with each belief is starkly different!!!!   [statisticians say - expected value :)  ]

 (1) If GOD does not exist – then all the devout believers lost the opportunity to fornicate, imbibe, and skip a lot of boring church services.

But

(2  If GOD does exist – then the atheist roasts eternally in HELL. 

Therefore:

The rational person thus chooses to believe in GOD.