Boston Legal #20 - Fellowship of the Rings

Thursday June 25th was the 20th Boston Legal almost 7 years to the day when we first decided to create the tradition - https://garenwisner.blogspot.com/2013/06/cincinnati-legal.html.  K.C. hosted the during the original idea and so it was fitting we sat poolside for the 20th meeting talking about world affairs, philosophy, books, movies, and family. 

An interesting topic came to the surface about family heirlooms - the stuff that carries generational memories.  It caused me to document the history of a cosmetic costume jewelry ring that my Grandmother wanted her descendants to have.  It was a nugget ruby glass ring in a bezel setting  with a yellow gold ornamental filigree setting. 

It was given to my Grandmother by Vingie E. Roe (a cousin of my Grandfather).  Vingie E. Roe was the granddaughter of Cyrenus Frank Castanien and considered an accomplished American novelist and screenwriter (for B&W silent movies).  She wrote more than 30 novels, mostly Westerns "with a feminist twist".  I suspect Vingie (19 years older than Grandmother) was looked on as the "rich and famous" and connected to Hollywood.   When my Grandparents took a vacation and drove from Oklahoma to California (in the 40's) they stopped by to see Vingie Roe. Vingie gave the ring to Grandmother out of kindness and as a trip memory.

Susan like the design of the ring and I decided to have a copy made for her to wear.  Coincidentally the copied ring was given to Susan - Christmas 2001 which was the opening of the movie "The Fellowship of the Ring.

There are actually 4 more copies so that each granddaughter (should they like it also) could have a ring just like the original. Hence the family heirloom might pass through yet another generation.

Great ideas and discussions come from the fellowship of the Boston Legal trio.  This incented me to find the rings - document the story and research the history of the movement of the ring.

How interesting it would be if Rings could Sing their story.

Emotional Volatility

I am rapidly getting weary (as many in the USA are) with shelter-in-place; gradual reopening; social distancing; masking; and virtual meetings.   While I have poked my head out of the turtle shell with meetings outside with friends; doubles tennis; and even social distancing/masking small group and worship activities;  I am tired of the constant news and conversations about COVID-19.  My time at home is now approaching the 100th day.

I continue to monitor with my own statistical model the various World, USA, State and Local data.  Even know the number of cases in my zip code (25) with hospitalizations (7) and deaths (under 3). The numbers are getting large which contributes to smaller growth rates. 

The USA stock market seems to be in the twilight zone with a V shaped recovery, sprinkled with radical emotional volatility based on news of the day.  If my attention to the market and renewed trading activity is any indication of a trend then there are lots of people speculating and creating volatility with zero commission costs of "nervous energy ".   My prior Financial Advisor (T.A.) said it best - "Nervous energy is one of the greatest destroyers of wealth".

The recent outrage of George Floyd's death with demonstrations, protests, and autonomous zone anarchy I believe escalated as a result of the rapid growth in emotional stress associated with COVID-19 and the shut down of the economy.  Oh.... stir in a dose of polarized red state and blue state political fear of the next election and you get a perfect storm of emotional pressure ready to blow up. 

What's the vaccine for emotional volatility?   Find what eliminates your nervous energy.

https://listenforjoy.com/collections/well-loved-images/products/deep-breath

Not Catbird, or Bobcat - Albino Peacock

This shelter in place has provided nature and us more time to understand each other.   SO -  a story of the last four weeks is worth sharing.

In late April, Susan texted me a picture of an albino Peacock that she assured was indeed a peacock as confirmed by our landscaper.  How interesting 10 years ago we had sighted an albino Squirrel in our neighborhood which has disappeared.   So, I placed no hope is seeing the peacock myself.

However,  when I was clearing some brush in our backyard (Saturday May 2), the Peacock sauntered across the yard.

Everyone that I have shared this with say.... NAH... that's just a turkey.

OK - hold that thought (the mysterious large white fowl).

For the past month Ellen has been hearing a crying meow of a cat each evening.  Once she pointed out the muffled sound, I began hearing it regularly also and would walk around the house saying "Here Kitty Kitty" attempting to find the distressed kitty.

OK - hold that thought (the distressed kitten mystery). 

About three weeks ago  (Monday May 4th)  as J.R., A.M. and I were sipping an adult beverage in my backyard, J.R. pointed out the large open wound on Bella's  (my female dog) hind end.   On later inspection there were also wounds on her shoulder blade and Fitch (the male dog) also had just recovered from his own wound in his hind quarters.   Somehow the dogs were getting hurt.

OK - hold that thought (the wounded outdoor dogs).

Back in early February,  I was out one night wondering why the dogs were barking so much.  I flipped on the back porch light and in the distance on the edge of our grass yard, a coyote was taunting the dogs.  He ran back into the woods briefly on the sight of my presence, only to become comfortable and race back into the yard confronting the dogs.

OK - hold that thought (the aggressive coyote theory).

Susan was up early Sunday morning (May 9th) and heard the distressed kitten sound at the side of our house. That morning she mentioned that maybe the sound wasn't a feline but a bird.  Maybe a bird makes a sound like a cat -  maybe a catbird?    So we google "Catbird" and play the sound....   no luck the sound didn't come close.   So I have the brilliant idea (based on the wounded dogs) maybe there is a Bobcat in the neighborhood.   I google Bobcat sounds and discover they indeed make a sound similar but not exactly what we have been hearing.

OK - hold that thought (the potential Bobcat theory)

In describing the Bobcat theory to as many people that would listen to my stories, I would get various comments back.  Yes, there are Bobcats in the area.  Yes, they are good for the area since they thin the coyote ranks.  However, they are recluse and likely would not be aggressive with dogs.  But .... for the next two weeks the Bobcat theory reigned. Then more evidence arrived at the foot of the garage door.

What have we here?    The skull of a ????????   Brought forward from Bella - the hunter.

OK - hold that thought (the mysterious animal skull bone)

Our landscaper returned to mow the lawn (Saturday May 30).    Diplomatically he listened to our theory but put the pieces of the puzzle together - and offers the Sherlock Holmes explanation:

What you are hearing is the albino Peacock (since he was an expert at making the Peacock call himself).  The dogs might have been wounded from a confrontation with an aggressive coyote or just got into their own internal squabble.  The deer head skull is evidence the coyotes were feasting somewhere near the dog's perimeter that allowed Bella to retrieve the skull of a deer.

OK -  you now need verification - right?   SO yesterday with J.R., A.M. and A.S.,   I decide to reiterate the LONG story above while playing the Peacock sound.  While playing that sound outside,  within the hour A.S. said....."I don't believe it -   there it is .....  and next to the bird feeder the Albino Peacock had arrived. 

CASE CLOSED  - Not a Catbird or Bobcat  -  an Albino Peacock

Addendum/Editorial Correction:

The WHITE Peacock is one of the most beautiful and rarest fowl in the world. It is not Albino since the eyes are blue.  The white color symbolizes purity, eternity and unconditional love.  

Source:  HOBI TERNAK

Boston Illegal #19

Thursday evening May 14, 2020 was my 56th official day at home (Shelter in Place).  I have literally not left the house more than 4 times in my car  (Ellen & Susan have been my concierge for food and sundries).  I have physically seen only twelve people for these 56 days.   Since Ohio was opening up it was time for a socially physical distancing time - Boston Legal. #19.

Once the spouses heard about this they decided to have their Boston Illegal on the front patio.  The need for physical social interaction is clearly a mandatory emotional need.  The movie Castaway with Tom Hanks remains one of my favorite movies as it shows the willingness to risk death for relationship connectiveness.

It does not surprise me that the USA is opening up and emotions are riding high between the extroverts and introverts. Suddenly a new education about natural rights and freedoms become the day to day discussions about the shelter-in-place orders and pending orders about masks and gloves.

J.P. had sent me a link to Randy Barnett's discussion about Individual Liberty in a Pandemic.  Little did I understand the overriding weight of my freedom as defined by the Ohio Constitution (vs the Federal Constitution).  I have never read the Ohio Constitution!

No movie for this Boston Legal  -  however I decided to post facto watch one as the suggested homework -   Charlton Heston in "The Omega Man" (1971).   Little did I realize this was just a COVID-19 movie showing all the people that decided to ignore shelter in place and stay out late at night :)

Blame Game - 2

I've caught the "bug" in learning about the mystery of  influenza. Funny how subjects I hated in high school - biology and history - I am now enjoying learning about.   Over the past few days I have watched the Great Courses Lectures #11-13  "The 1918 Flu" - Professor Bruce E. Fleury ;  the Smithsonian America's Hidden Stories - "Pandemic 1918" ;  and the most interesting - a 2014 lecture at the University of Arizona  -  "The Genesis of the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic" ;

Professor Michael Worobey speculates (with very persuasive data) that we can blame the Spanish Flu on a Canadian Horse!   Even more interesting is the history of influenza and what age group may have the best immunity to different strains.

I was most intrigued at Professor Michael Worobey's  answer to the question about this slide stating a "Lab Escape" of H1N1: 

"In 1957 the Spanish Flu went extinct when H2N2 emerged in 1963.  H3N2 kicked out H2N2 but in 1977 there was a kind of mini pandemic and H1N1 re-emerged and bottom line if you look at the molecular clock it [H1N1] was frozen in time not even since 1957 but it was a 1950 N1 strain and it is virtually certain it was an accidental mistake probably from an experimental strain from China or Russia.  And so - yes - the first pathogen in human history was accidentally re-released and not to many people know about it until you guys."

The strange spike in 2017-2018 in deaths from influenza is put in context in this interview with Worobey in Feb. 2018:  

Even Worobey's research on HIV-1 is fascinating discovering strains of this circulating in the 1970's before the outbreak in the US was recognized - see article "Findings of how AIDs spread across North America" 

Bottom-line -  when you were born and what your first battle with influenza was may determine your success in the fight with COVID-19. 

Blame Game

Now the escalating viral gossip circulating the internet and news media is the attempt to find the "cause" of the COVID-19 crisis. The blame game is a natural human tendency - especially when it comes to a virus.   So often when we get the flu we try to determine the cause - or really who gave it to you.  In fact the whole discussion and ramp up for tracing mechanisms is one of the critical needs for relaxing the shelter-in-place to properly quarantine those individuals at risk of spreading the virus.

Tracing automatically reinforces the historical look back at who or where was the first incident.  It was fascinating to listen to the lineage of the Santa Clara County Tracing: 

The conspiracy theories about the source of the virus in Wuhan China and whether it was caused by a mistake in the lab or in the wet market will rage on.  Blaming the Chinese for this virus would be like blaming the USA (now thinking the Spanish Flu started in Kansas) for the start and spread of the Spanish Flu.   What gain comes from blaming anyone for the crisis?

Yes there is always a benefit to understanding a cause if it provides a benefit of avoid future problems.  However when the search for a cause is primarily to "damn" the source and to redirect the attention away from solving the problem while at the same time washing your hands from responsibility of current actions - then looking for the cause is a waste of precious time and resources that can be applied to solving the problem.

Does naming "Patient ZERO" help?  Should we damn that person?  Should we damn wet markets?  Should we damn the Chinese? 

"He who is without sin, cast the first stone"

Normal Numbers Nonsense?

The discussion (sometimes called argument) continues about whether COVID-19 is anymore serious that the normal flu.  Everyone is second guessing each state's Governor's response, the Federal Government's response and comparing our death rate to other countries responses to this pandemic.  J.P. even asked what level of deaths in the U.S. would justify praise for the state and federal response?

The real underlying issue is what is a pandemic?   History provides some clue to this answer.  Start with what is considered the 5-6 Worst Pandemics in History .

(1) The Bubonic Plague/Black Death 1347- 1351 75-200 million deaths worldwide
(2) Spanish Flu (H1N1) -  1918-1919 50 million worldwide deaths (675,000 USA)
(3) Asian Flu  (H2N2) - 1957  1.1 million worldwide deaths (116,000 USA)
(4) Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) - 1968  1 million worldwide deaths (100,000 USA)
(5) Swine Flu (H1N1) - 2009-2010  575,400 worldwide deaths (12,469 USA)
(6) HIV/AIDS -  1980 - 2006  25 million deaths worldwide (still in process)

The Worldometer Coronavirus daily count is now at 233,686 worldwide deaths and 63,765 in USA so by the numbers it may surpass the #4 and #3 in absolute numbers. 

But the absolute numbers are still flawed in revealing a solution.   For example:  The Spanish Flu, which lasted 36 months, in it's first wave (Jan 1918 - October 1918)  killed 200,000 people in the USA (about 0.194% of the 103 million population). The estimated infected population was 1/3 so the actual mortality rate for the first wave was about 0.582%.   Presented in a percentage that number seems no different from the seasonal flu.  This numbers nonsense is used to criticize the shelter-in-place actions (either soft or hard).

A recent RedState article was sent to me "If Wuhan Virus Is SoBad, Why Are Deaths So Low?" that attempted to justify why "There is really no medical reason to pursue this nonsense." The data looks legitimate sourcing from the CDC, yet a quick check on the actual site of Vital Statistics shows quite a different picture.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/

After lengthy conversation with P.N.,  I gave up trying to use numbers to convince him that this crisis is approaching the severity of the Spanish Flu and is well beyond the mortality numbers of a normal flu season in the USA.  Finally we both agreed that based on today's nonsensical numbers that by year end deaths in the USA could approach 100K - 120K.

It just shows that normal - is in whatever numbers make you feel normal.  And that's the definition of  nonsense - predicting deaths that we call "normal levels".