Eerie Election Echos

Back in early September T.M. graciously gave me a one-month free subscription referral to Nate Silver's "Silver Bulletin" suggesting a good way to monitor the poll data for this election. That referral marketing technique worked since I subscribed after the 30 days to continue to get updates until election day. 

This election - Assassination attempts, Biden dropping out, RFK Jr. third party run all reminded me of the 1968 election - Johnson dropping out, Humphery running, RFK assassinated, George Wallace third party etc.  An eerie set of echos of 1968.  

I was very interested in political elections as a teenager and remember playing endless hours the 1967 3M bookshelf board game - Mr. President Mr. President | Board Game | BoardGameGeek. 

I popped downstairs and found the old game (yes, I am a packrat borderline hoarder) - opened it up to remind myself of the rules and found two old index cards that we had designed of Hubert Humphry and Tricky Dick Nixon to make the 1968 election a simulation in the game.  

So how will this election result echo 1968 (see 1968 Election Results) ?   Nixon won handily 301 in the electoral college but barely won the popular vote and who knows how the 10 million votes George Wallace would have been distributed had he not run (regardless Nixon had the majority needed for the electoral college).  

More interestingly to me - this election and all the very precise polling has reminded me of a high school assigned reading (likely in history class) by Issac Asimov "Franchise" written in 1955 about the election of 2008 when a Multivac Computer (AI related) could select one person to vote to determine the election result.  Another eerie echo of how sophisticated our polling is - even 60 minutes had a segment "The Swingiest Count" where Door County Wisconsin has voted for the winning presidential candidate since 2000 - "a political weather vane".  However 60 minutes could not find one person in that county that had correctly voted for the winner since 2000.  

Who will win the 2024 election?  I might as well go out on a limb.  Based on the eerie echos - Flip a coin and hope it doesn't land on it's edge.