Nevermind the Time

I thought 2020 was a year worth forgetting but eight months into 2021 this year has created the most emotional volatility.  On the upside - the birth of my first Grandson (Teddy Lee), Ellen's graduation and employment with Fidelity Investments and now the introduction of two new kittens - Yoda and Yoshi.  Sadly this year, Rambo and Rocky died (presumably of old age ailments and disease).  With Ellen's new kitten Cleo we have saved three kittens from their abandonment.  

Watching Teddy develop alongside kittens is an interesting contrast.  Yet the rapid speed shows the exponential power of growth (size, capabilities etc.).  Amid the COVID-19 deaths (now over 644K in USA) the perpetual machine of new life overpowers the sorrow of death.  This spiritual mystery (for some) just doesn't provide enough hope to overshadow the temptational cries of armegedon (e.g. Climate Crisis, Pandemic Fear, Economic Meltdown, Poverty and Starvation, Water Shortage, and yes.... even asteroid collision.  All worries related to time.

Drilled into my head constantly was my Mother's mantra of the power of positive thinking - the hopeful outlook of human improvement (time on this earth) and spiritual eternity (time outside this earth). 

At 4:45 am Friday driving Ellen to the airport, I listened to NPR's rebroadcast of BBC  World Service - Business Daily "Rethinking Time" .

Professor Adrian Bejan of Duke University states "Time is a human perception.  We feel the passing of time so there is a clock time that brings everyone together on this planet and then there is a mind time which is personal."  Mind time is like clicks of the eye - or frames in a movie reflecting change.  "Time is the name for the perception of change."   The time (clock time) from morning to night is fixed, yet the number of clicks (infant or adult) of mind time is variable by individual.  As we get older the number of clicks decreases (computer clicks too 😁).  

There are 72 waking non working hours  (clock time) available (assuming 40 hour work week and 8 hours of sleep) equally to each of us.  How are each of us mindful about these clock time hours?   How are each of us mindful about the click time available within that clock time?  

Mind what you look at and how you look at it. Nevermind the time - change your perceptions. 

Growing Data Awareness

One valuable and sacred principle of American freedom is the ring of truth that inevitably rises from any cloaking of information - the Pentagon Papers, Vietnam Causulties, Tobacco Cancer Data.... the list goes on  (10 Cover-ups that Just Made Things Worse). 

A.S. sent me an email suggesting I watch a youtube presentation from Dr. Dan Stock to the Mt. Vernon School Board last night.  By 9:00am this morning the Youtube feed had been removed.

Naturally I decided to look into the guidelines for this removal from a public School Board Meeting. The Youtube specific policy on COVID-19 can be found at this link:  COVID-19 Medical Misinformation Policy. 

YouTube doesn't allow content that spreads medical misinformation that contradicts local health authorities’ or the World Health Organization’s (WHO) medical information about COVID-19. This is limited to content that contradicts WHO or local health authorities’ guidance on:

• Treatment 
• Prevention
• Diagnosis
• Transmission
• Social distancing and self isolation guidelines
• The existence of COVID-19

Note: YouTube’s policies on COVID-19 are subject to change in response to changes to global or local health authorities’ guidance on the virus. This policy was published on May 20, 2020. 

Luckily the internet provides a vehicle for 1st Amendment Rights - Freedom of Speech and I was able to find the transcript of Dr. Dan Stock's address. Clearly this (among others) statement did him in:

"And you can’t prevent it with a vaccine because they don’t do the very thing you’re wanting them to do, and you will be chasing this the remainder of your life until you recognize that the Center for Disease Control, and the Indiana State Board of Health, are giving you very bad scientific guidance" 

One side claims conspiracy theories by kooks, the other side claims government propoganda and each attempts to gain public access and the podium.  

My bully pulpit is about the data and continues to be only that in my poorly written blogs (as pointed out by T.Mc.).  Obviously my bias (self proclaimed) is that I previously had COVID-19 (with documented Antibodies) and feel no rush to become vaccinated.  

Recently I became aware of Mass. Dept of Health statistics.  Ignoring the CDC's advice to not count breakthrough cases (and only hospitalizations and deaths) they are publishing (a bit hard to find though) data on Breakthroughs cases in addition to hospitalizations and deaths.

I can quibble with their percentage calculation as too early to be significant (it's like saying in March 31of 2020 there were only 3,889 deaths in the USA from COVID-19 with a population of 332 million - .001%).  I think both percentages are meaningless. 

However - give Mass Dept of Health credit for maintaining history.  On May 24 there were 3.343 Breathtrough cases with 2.9 million fully vaccinated; On 7/31 there were 7,737 Breakthrough Cases and on 8/7 there were 9,969 Breakthrough cases with 4.3 million fully vaccinated.  You can now compute the compounded daily growth rate of  Breakthrough infections in Mass.  for the fully vaccinated.  Oh heck -  I'll do it for you -  It is a 1.47% Daily Compound Growth Rate since May 24 and the last week was a 3.69% Daily Compound Growth Rate from 7/31 to 8/7.   

NOTE:   The COMPOUND DAILY GROWTH RATE OF COVID-19 POSITIVE CASES (USA) FROM 1/20/2020 to 8/11/2021 is ....... wait for it .........3.11%

T. Mc. (also willing to crosscheck my logic and play devils advocate) just sent me an email from a reliable left bias source The Guardian to the question:  Why isn’t the US tracking ‘breakthrough’ Covid cases?

The response he received from Nao Yachot (Guardian US Membership Editor) is too long to publish in this blog,  Here is a snipet:  

With Delta come many questions that Guardian reporters have been pursuing as hospitals in the deep south run out of ICU beds, mayors and governors reintroduce restrictions and health professionals report increased hospitalization of children with severe cases. Among the questions we are asking:

• How many vaccinated people are getting infected with so-called “breakthrough” Covid cases?
• Are children at particular risk as the school year begins?
• Can people who have been vaccinated still get long Covid?

Answering some of these questions is made tricky by the fact that the US has no centralized system for collecting information on breakthrough cases – because the CDC stopped tracking those cases earlier this year, and is now only collecting data on breakthrough cases that lead to hospitalization or death. In an op-ed we recently published, science writer Yasmin Tayag laments this dearth of information, which she says limits our ability to make informed decisions.

The cry of Paul Revere for data will be heard.....  time and data freedom will ring the truth.  Let both the right and left cry out - uncensored. 

Citizen Data Scientists

A. S. who has put up with my constant emails and has been my outlet for my statistical skepticism sent me an interesting story on how the CDC came to study the Provincetown Mass. COVID cluster infection of the fully vaccinated.  In fact Michael Donnelly launched his own COVIDoutlook.info website.  

Now I don't feel so bad about the time I daily spend updating my own COVID Data Model Spreadsheet and blogging about the misinformation or spin doctoring statistics.  I just finished reading the book "Extra Life: A  Short History of Living Longer"  by Steven Johnson (also a CET documentary). In 1866 the Citizen Data Scientist -William Farr discovers the Cholera outbreak in London is due to one infected water source and proves the transmission method.  His charts are worthy of framing. 

When the government, institutions, media and mob attempt to discredit the individual voices skeptics as crazy misinformation pundits we discourage the very citizenship voice of discovery needed to improve the science.

Vaccination from Fear

 In my search for "real" statistics about Delta Variant hospitalizations ..... finally some actual investigative report to be applauded.  You could argue the survey is statistically not well done but ..... some data is better than no data.

ABC News contacted 50 hospitals in 17 states, and asked them to share data on their ICU wards' current COVID-19 patients, including their vaccination status. In the surveyed hospitals, ABC News found that the overwhelming majority of COVID-19 patients currently being treated in ICUs were unvaccinated.

Of the 271 total COVID patients in the surveyed ICUs, 255 patients, or approximately 94%, were unvaccinated against COVID-19 in ABC News' snapshot in time.

The article also cites Alabama's Department of Health Statistics on hospitalizations of vaccinated vs unvaccinated (94%) but provides no link to verify (and a quick search yielded nothing).   I do like Alabama's summary which includes Antibody results.  

Data and Surveillance | Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) (alabamapublichealth.gov)

The only thing I could find is yet another undocumented survey - yet another example of viral media news:

In a recent survey of Alabama's hospitals, 94% of current COVID-19 positive patients were unvaccinated, Don Williamson, president of the Alabama Hospital Association, told ABC News in a statement.

The reality of our decision making process is that we are biased to the very ancillary data sources of our personal network and news we read weighed against our own personal evaluation of risk and rewards.  I believe mortality emotional risk grows with age (the older you are the fear of death may increase).  There is only one vaccine (although tests are not complete) that can reduce the fear of mortality (across all circumstances).   I'll let you guess what that is.

Flying Blind

The Delta Variant is shaking up the data tree.  "New Science" is the latest terminology.  Prior to this I guess we were trusting the "Old Science".  The challenge for a data hungry person like me is the constant disappointment.   Florida as an example -   they stopped doing a daily COVID-19 dashboard preferring to defer to the CDC stating they send the data to them daily.   Unfortuanately clicking on the state of Florida sends me right back to the Florida Department of Health -  an infinite non data loop.

One could argue that weekly data is sufficient and 7 day moving averages are better statistical viewing and takes some of the "data noise" out of the clamor.  J.D. gave an interesting perspective of why Israel, England and Canada might have better and more transparent data.   National Health Care (Centralized) provides a greater and more standardized way of capturing and accumulating data.  So my criticism of the CDC should be tempered.   Fair Point!

Since deaths (an hospitalizations) have dropped dramatically I discovered some great interactive data tools and visualization on the CDC Data Tracker site.

I thought it would be interesting to visualize the deaths supperimposed on the total vaccines administered.  Looking at this graph in simple terms and you would say WOW .... this vaccine caused the dramatic fall in deaths!!!   And that is exactly as the media is reporting.  The clinical trials are "proven" out in the population as a whole.But

The dates from January 7, 2021 to January 13, 2021 had several peaks -  

Daily Deaths peaked 4,154 on 1/13/21

7 Day Average Deaths  3,626  on 1/13/21

New Positive Cases  295,881 on 1/7/21

7 Day Average Cases 253,378 on 1/11/21

Here are the cumulative numbers by 1/13/21

Total Positive Cases - 23,502,741

Total Deaths - 413,899

Total Vaccines Administered (1 or 2 shots)  - 15,167,141

BUT WAIT.....   Look at this chart - it looks similar!

Let's call the new yellow line in this chart "the ultimate vaccine".  It coincidentally crosses very near the upper chart - on January 25, 2021.

You ask - what is that "ultimate vaccine"  the one that has also caused the dramatic reduction in deaths?

The yellow line is the cumulative positive cases of COVID-19 - 25,170,494 survivors - presumably with ANTIBODIES.  

Use a multiple of asympotmatic cases of 3-5 and you get 75 to 125 million people with antibodies.  I can find no data that "proves" immunity and/or no further transmission but there may be a high probability that is also why cases of Alpha Variant were rapidly decreasing also.

What is my point?    We have lost control!  There are no control cases.  We are using the unvaccinated (which includes survivors with antibodies) as a improper control group compared to the vaccinated (which also includes survivors with antibodies).  In fact the clinical trials were unblinded without proper control groups to measure going forward.

Now the Delta Variant and others appear - no control there either.  We are "flying blind" in a vaccine airplane mixed passengers that we have no clue about their immunity or antibodies.   

Addendum:   While I'm critical of the State of Florida for ceasing the daily data.  I was humbled to see that state had weekly Serology Data (as of May 31).   Why did this stop?