Nevermind the Time

I thought 2020 was a year worth forgetting but eight months into 2021 this year has created the most emotional volatility.  On the upside - the birth of my first Grandson (Teddy Lee), Ellen's graduation and employment with Fidelity Investments and now the introduction of two new kittens - Yoda and Yoshi.  Sadly this year, Rambo and Rocky died (presumably of old age ailments and disease).  With Ellen's new kitten Cleo we have saved three kittens from their abandonment.  

Watching Teddy develop alongside kittens is an interesting contrast.  Yet the rapid speed shows the exponential power of growth (size, capabilities etc.).  Amid the COVID-19 deaths (now over 644K in USA) the perpetual machine of new life overpowers the sorrow of death.  This spiritual mystery (for some) just doesn't provide enough hope to overshadow the temptational cries of armegedon (e.g. Climate Crisis, Pandemic Fear, Economic Meltdown, Poverty and Starvation, Water Shortage, and yes.... even asteroid collision.  All worries related to time.

Drilled into my head constantly was my Mother's mantra of the power of positive thinking - the hopeful outlook of human improvement (time on this earth) and spiritual eternity (time outside this earth). 

At 4:45 am Friday driving Ellen to the airport, I listened to NPR's rebroadcast of BBC  World Service - Business Daily "Rethinking Time" .

Professor Adrian Bejan of Duke University states "Time is a human perception.  We feel the passing of time so there is a clock time that brings everyone together on this planet and then there is a mind time which is personal."  Mind time is like clicks of the eye - or frames in a movie reflecting change.  "Time is the name for the perception of change."   The time (clock time) from morning to night is fixed, yet the number of clicks (infant or adult) of mind time is variable by individual.  As we get older the number of clicks decreases (computer clicks too 😁).  

There are 72 waking non working hours  (clock time) available (assuming 40 hour work week and 8 hours of sleep) equally to each of us.  How are each of us mindful about these clock time hours?   How are each of us mindful about the click time available within that clock time?  

Mind what you look at and how you look at it. Nevermind the time - change your perceptions. 

DESERVED or DESIRED

The BIG surprise for Ellen ended up being only a partial one today.  For years Ellen has wanted me to purchase a BIG TV and every trip to Sams Club we would look and look and I would tease her saying "Some day soon I would replace our TV.  The old Sony KDS 50A2000 SDRX (Vintage 2006) would just not bite the dust and it's HD 1080i backlit projection was "good enough" (and ahead of it's time).  

But the power of suggestion (by A.S.) and the building boredom of shelter in place lit the fuse and rekindled the fire of High Definition Desire.  The bomb dropped on August 1 at midnight with the super August 1 sale - call it the COVID-19 purchase bomb.

For a month prior to this sale I had been in analysis/paralysis mode over features and cost.   Should I go BIG (80+ inches)?  Should I go high tech (OLED)?  Was 60hz or 120 hz refresh rate required?  The feature list was endless.  Again paradox of choice sets in (which is great for the frugal gene.

In the end, it was the sale price and gift card incentive that trumped the variables - final price $9.12 per inch.  Yes, I settled for the LG 75" Class 4K UltraHD w/AI ThinQ - 75UN7370).  But... alas the low cost was absorbed with all the add-ons -  wall mount, sound system, and who knows what else will follow.

So it was the wall mount that ruined the BIG surprise for Ellen since it arrived at home today while she was at home.  So I had to spill the beans early.  However the excitement builds as we both await the TV and sound system next week.  That gives me plenty of time to ponder the math of proper viewing height, distance and viewing "footprint".  The old Sony 50 inch had 1068 sq inches (16:9) of viewing pleasure and the 75 inch LG weighs in at 2042 sq inches - a 91% Improvement!

This purchase demonstrates the challenge of desire over need in our consumerism obsession.  As Susan rightly indicated - "We don't NEED a new TV".  But the desire dangerously developed as depression dived deeper daily :)

COVID-19 is changing behaviors exponentially in addition to its spread - attitudes about home life, entertainment, travel, work, technology, relationships, health and yes .......  even age and mortality.

My first BIG HD TV screen size was justified based on age. After all I had turned 51 - I DESERVED a 50 inch TV.  Now at 65, I guess I DESIRED something larger than my age.

Sieze the Day - EVERYDAY MATTERS

Everyday matters in the containment of COVID-19.  As a statistician and numbers obsessed individual, I have been tracking my own spreadsheet of growth rates and predictions for the USA, Ohio and Cincinnati..  My first discovery is the problem with public data sources, timing, and the relative misinformation (or misinterpretation) provided by various sources of well intended reporters doing their own analysis (like me).

As I have previously pointed out, you should focus on what most matters - outcomes - which  means deaths and recoveries (life). The absolute number of recoveries (96,958) is increasing slowly (growth rate is 3.3%) while the absolute number of deaths (14,573) is increasing rapidly (growth rate 12.5%).  The growth rate of worldwide infections is 11% percent and based on cumulative infections to day the death percentage is 4.3%  and slowly inching up  (based on worldwide data - 340K infections and 14.6K deaths). What do all these numbers really mean?

This data analysis is a moving target. So here is a case where the input of new infections is like a fire hose filling a water bucket while the data about the outcomes of death and recovery are only a few tiny holes letting the water out of the bucket. We are trying to plug the death holes and widen the recovery holes while trying to slow the rate of water going into the bucket. Since the outcome holes are small and are slow in flow (5% or less) , the most important variable is the input - which is overwhelmingly large and fast in flow (11% Worldwide). The bucket is filling rapidly!

With that in mind, I have concentrated my thinking with the rate of input - compound growth rate of new infections in the USA and Ohio (35.9% and 45% respectively).   Next most important question is to determine when that growth rate begins to diminish - predicting the PEAK of the growth rate curve (with the only data available and suspect - Wuhan and China).

Using March 1 as a starting point in the USA with 62 cases of COVID-19, I have been tracking with various data sources reporting the cumulative number of infections in the USA , Ohio and most selfishly where I live Cincinnati.  As of 3:00pm EST the USA compound growth rate in infections is 35.9% for 21 days (3/1 - 3/22) and 45% Ohio for 7 days (3/15 - 3/22) and in Cincinnati - no growth rate yet but 4 known cases. To be fair, this analysis assumes a start date in March versus the real ground zero infection point which likely occurred sometime in mid February.

Look at these charts:

This shows why the implicit growth rate is so important and dramatic.  Why we hope that we are on a 20% curve versus a 42% curve and why we hope the curve peaks at 26 days versus 61 days.

This is why the Governors of each state in the USA (like China already has done) are rapidly ordering "draconian" measures to attempt to minimize the  absolute numbers in new infections regardless of the real compound growth rate  and the unknown death rate as a percentage of infections.  This also why EVERYDAY MATTERS!!!!

Next blog entry coming -  WHEN IS THE PEAK?  ---- pray for 26 days or less.

New Normal?

Saturday starts a weekend of what may be a "New Normal" for many in the USA.  Several days ago I read the Washington Post article "Coronavirus will radically alter the US".  In that article was the following graph

 

 

Referencing the 1918 Spanish flu, we can expect a second wave of this virus and should begin now to prepare for various scenarios from the best to the worst. 

How can the Investment community prepare their expectations from the best to the worst.  Yet another chart to reference.  This appeared from M.L. (R.M.'s friend) in her firm's newsletter to her clients:

US Financial Services LLC  (973) 882 3600

It's time to take a deep breath and begin planning life in a "New Normal". Some of our leaders have been criticized for calmly saying that "this too shall pass". There is a balance of avoiding panic and preventing complacency needed as we problem solve around this virus.  As my brother (D'Lane) said to me when I was nursing my Dad back from his fall in ICU - "One step at a time".

 

My homegrown spreadsheet model of the growth numbers - World, USA, Ohio still shows greater than 30% growth with a hospitalization between 12% and 25% and no peak in sight.  We are still climbing the rollercoaster with the hope of quickly getting to the top as our fear mounts.  What a relief it will be when we start down the hill!!!

 

How appropriate we want to flatten the virus curve as it heads to the peak.  The faster we flatten it the quicker that same curve (flipped in reverse) will let the stock market bottom. 

 

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TGIF

For Wall Street Investors the adage "Thank God It's Friday" may be an understatement.  As I write this blog at 3:06 EST the DJIA has dropped 16% for the week, 33% for the month.  The market drop is better defined now as contagion - the combination of emotional fear from the economic impact of lockdowns with the Saudi/Russia Oil fight, and a sprinkle of political uncertainty. 

In this environment - cash is king, physical supplies is queen.  This is my second day locked down at the house.  Taking a walk in the neighborhood, it felt like grand central station - cars, people walking, children playing outside, even an Indian Hill Ranger patrolling and stopping to say hello.  Of course it helps that it was a sunny day with temperatures in the 50's.

Ellen cooked some brownies, Jenna was outside playing fetch with her dog Wally, Paul was working making client phone calls, and Susan attempting to collect receivables for her clients.  I sat transfixed on the red and green ups and downs of individual stocks while listening to the gloom and doom of CNBC.

Will the pressure cooker of this week's activity continue to build over the weekend?  With little routine outlets available for weekend decompression, everyone will be trying to find new activities and ways to fill their time.  What a great opportunity to re-evaluate how we spend our time together and what we can do to be emotionally supportive of each other. Like the feeling of being snowed in during a winter storm, we can practice ways to create calm and peace.  Here are some ideas:

(1) Turn off the media
(2) Read a book
(3) How about a puzzle; or art; or a family game
(4) Take a walk outside in the neighborhood
(5) Do one of those home organization projects you have put off indefinitely

Take the time to appreciate your home and feeling safe at home.

PANIC or NAP

The stock market seems to be in free-fall and the word PANIC seems appropriate.  The fourth circuit breaker (7% down) in two weeks and the S&P graph appears to mirror the wall chart that I face in my office for the 2008 recession (1.6 years and a drop of 57%).  My personal capitulation day back then was Dec. 3, 2008 just before the market bottom of March 9, 2009.  I have great memory of this because of my personal financial logs that recorded my feelings and trades.

For the past four days, I have watched the market continuously aided by the recommendation to physically distance from others.  I suspect that has exacerbated the panic and created more nervous energy of people liquidating accounts.

The fluid nature, next to zero transaction costs, and real time ability to move large sums of money has contributed to the volatility and steep intraday movements.  Even the ability to watch global markets - CNBC Asia allows a person to remain glued on minute by minute futures market.

Temptation and regret slips in when the market vaults up as the "market timers" try to optimize the bottom.  I also get tempted to play in this game but have avoided making any trades or timing decisions.

How do you control PANIC -  I C NAP :)

Cocooning

The effect of globalization is front and center during this perfect storm of Corona Virus Pandemic, Oil fights, and globally fluid capital markets.  The only industry benefiting from this panic is likely the 24 hour news.  

The S&P is down 30% in a matter of days.  Travel and Entertainment is locked down in a matter of days also.  It demonstrates how fragile the feeling of security can be - emotionally, financially, physically, and …. for some spiritually.  As Warren Buffet says - "You never know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out".   

I'm amazed at the distribution of attitudes about the rapid response by our Federal and State leaders.  The challenge of absorbing the various media bias (including social media) and the lack of understanding of statistics and numbers has contributed to both extremes of fear and indifference.  

Personally this has affected me in the cancellation of my trip to visit Dad in the Nursing home.  Susan and the girls also cancelled their spring break vacation to Arizona.  On the financial side - like others net worth (on paper) drops at least 20%.  Aside from the personal social distancing, this feels eerily like the great recession of 2007 and 2008.  Since my blogging only started in August 2009, only my manual journals (Spiritual and Financial) have any measure of my emotions and actions at that time.

Over the weekend, I decided to create my own forecast using the numbers from the World Health Organization situation reports.  In our data hungry world the numbers are suspect from even this source.  The two most important numbers are the daily rate of growth in new cases and the rate of growth in recoveries (and by default deaths).  Once again the human mind just has difficulty understanding the power of growth (April 16, 2012 Growth and Patience) and patience.  T.A. in our Vistage meeting talked about the dangers of nervous energy - on health, finances and relationships.  This time is no exception -  it is a time for patience and careful reflection. 

If this virus is growing at 30% daily (doubles about every 3 days) in USA (which is about what the W.H.O. shows since 3/1/2020) and the hospitalization rate is 20% of cases then we run out of hospital bed in the USA by about 4/13/2020 (assuming a discharge rate of prior admissions every 7 days).  The CNBC news states the doubling rate is every 6 days (about a 12% growth rate) and using that assumption my cryptic spreadsheet models a run out of beds by 5/21/2020.  That's not much to be encouraged about.  

Now the good news - if we can trust the Chinese Data -  the exponential curve of new cases peaks at about 16 - 24 days (but very dependent of population diligence in distancing).

This data seems to be consistent with the South Korean numbers (about 26 days) as it potentially is peaking.  The next few days will be critical to watch.

In Ohio there are 37 cases identified and 350 in testing.  The real answer about the risk of the virus is a local issue and community response.  For me - I'm cocooning.

Double Tithe-ation

Crossroads Church is almost done with a Sermon series based on the book "The Blessed Life" by Robert Morris.  It is an excellent spiritual book that addresses the Biblical "rules" for giving.  Giving the FIRST 10% of your treasure - the tithe - is explained in detail.  Too often the devil is in the details. People ask - "Is the tithe on Gross Earnings or Net Earnings" or "Should my tithe be on AGI or Taxable Income"?

Susan has a friend that even created a more complex variable - what to do with 401K pretax earnings saved- since at retirement these distributions will be income (and taxed that way also).  If one tithes on Gross Income before 401K savings deductions and then tithes on the distributions during retirement is this....... Double Tithing?   Double Tithe-ation :)

I'm sure the answer is: "Tithing is in the eye of the Beholder" and "We Become what we Hold".

Just remember who the Ultimate Beholder is.

Numbers Matter

Thomas Piketty's book "Capital in the Twenty-First Century is only 685 pages (200 pages less than Wolff's).  It is exactly why Introductions and Conclusions are the best starting points for determining whether to even fan through the pages or even look at the table of contents.

What fun for an latent Economist/Mathematician/Statistician to see after chart of empirical data captured from best available historical sources.  However a sample size of less than 300 years is a difficult foundation to theorize mathematical/economic premises.  Piketty uses the intuitive r>g (return on capital greater than rate of growth of income/output) to conclude that divergence in inequality of wealth will likely outpace convergence.

I did enjoy Piketty's justification for a bias to the French data (vs USA) based on lower population growth and other factors.  Also entertaining was his comment about the discipline of economics in "childish passion for mathematics and for purely theoretical and often highly ideological speculation, at the expense of historical research and collaboration with the other social sciences."   I admit in my studies, I hated the expression "with all other things being equal".

It's always interesting to read the last words.  Usually it ends up being what the author really wants you to understand.

"Yet is seem to me that all social scientists, all journalists and commentators, all activists in the unions and in politics of whatever stripe, an especially all citizens should take a serious interest in money, its measurement, the facts surrounding it, and its history.  Those who have a lot of it never fail to defend their interests.  Refusing to deal with numbers rarely serves the interests of the least well-off,"

In my Vistage 2011 presentation on Risk/Luck I said "Manage your investments or they will Damage you".  It was my way of saying if you don't pay attention to your money your interests will not be served. 

"Manage your money,  or it will manage you"

2019 Jubilee

I just picked up Edward N. Wolff's book "A Century of Wealth in America"  from the library.  It is 865 pages of empirical data and statistics about wealth in the United States from 1900 to 2013 but with most of the attention to the last 50 years.  I read one or two chapters and then lazily decided to listen to any recent  lectures that might be on the internet - thankfully I found one:

Warning - the book and this lecture is not for the faint of heart.  As Wolff himself warns in the preface of his book - "aimed at a more scholarly audience" and "follows the Baconian method of inductive reasoning rather than Descarte's method of using mathematical reasoning:.

With recent political posturing and preliminary 2020 election market testing, the start of the debate of Income and Wealth Inequality is beginning.   Whether this topic will sustain into a 2020 top three debates will be determined soon.  Since it naturally morphs into the political camps about taxation, my prediction it will survive and thrive.  It is especially hot right around April 15th. 

So -  I may spend some blogging time putting my spin on this topic in the future.  Like religion, this one is full of mystery, faith, and tension and full of prophets, teachers and high priests.  The Bible talks more about money than hell and maybe even heaven. Maybe some of the political candidates will recommend a "year of jubilee"  (now when is that really).

FUN in Funding

Just got back from Family Nurturing Center a Social Venture Partner Investee from 2013 to 2015 and still an Investee that the Partners feel connected to in many ways (in fact P.G. is now the Board Chairperson).  Today's purpose was to highlight what SVP Cincinnati does combined with showing a team that I worked hands on helping in their infrastructure.  Channel 12 was compiling a short video for Cincinnati Rotary in their selection for the Jefferson Award.

It is an honor for me and SVP Cincinnati to be named as one of three finalists this year.  Only through serendipitous discovery, did I come to realize that the other two finalists are connected to SVP Cincinnati through our Investee Investment and Fastpitch programs.  Wow - what a bonus -  everyone is a winner!

SVP Cincinnati "Invests Differently"  - and since June 2007 our 60 partners (and 40 Alumni) have helped over 100 Non-Profits in Cincinnati giving over $1.5Million in our time, talent and treasure. 

Our grant money is unrestricted; our coaching is strategic; our time is focused on critical non-profit back office needs freeing the non-profit's time for programs.  The organizations we touch become sustainable, efficient, strategic and better in their delivery of good to the community. 

One of the most important word for a non-profit is funding.  So how do you put FUN into the word funding?   That is the mystery of philanthropy - "The mystical mingling of the Joyful Giver, the Grateful Recipient and..... the Artful Asker".   Giving is serious business - deciding how to steward and avoid CAREless gifts. The real gift is the opportunity to serve - it takes two.  Giving was never meant to be a individual sport and joy multiplies exponentially with a team.  

Discover your return on life - join with others in giving.

Volatility in my Blood

For less than a month, I have been testing my blood glucose levels.  As an experiment to understand, in a small way, the intrusion of mandatory activities that a Type 1 Diabetic must perform, I decided to buy a glucose monitor (Accu Chek Aviva Plus) and the necessary strips, lancets, and control solution.  

Today's rude awakening of the cost of test strips occurred when I ran out this morning and drove immediately to Walgreens to buy another set of 50. I was not using any insurance card for this purchase.

The pharmacist rang up the ticket - $109.99.   I nearly fell over (my blood sugar must have dropped suddenly)  since I had spent only  $22.95 for my first set of 50 test strips from Amazon.com.  And I had another 50 test strips on order for $15.00    How could there be a variation of over 7 times the cost?

That led me to an internet search to understand Why Test Strips Cost so Much -  $2.20 a strip.  Should I be upset with "Big Pharma", insurance subsidies, or the drug retailers?   The marginal manufacturing cost is less than $0.15.  But the technology needed (R&D) and the quality necessary (and different by vendor) is evident in testing the various Pharmaceutical companies.  In fact, this research raised my awareness that not all strips read accurately, there is significant potential user misuse (wrong strips, expired strips, etc.) and recalibrating and checking your monitor and batch of strips is a necessary part of the process.  Even the need for  a backup monitor is a good idea.

Now that Jenna has a CGM (Continuous Glucose Monitor) from DexCom, we have found several times where it's accuracy does not match her stick glucose monitor.  As a Statistician this has heightened my awareness of the whole subject of false positive readings and variations.   When your monitor reads 100 -  that really means 80 - 120.  The FDA requires more precision at the lower level but: " For results below 75 mg/dl: 95% of test results must be within plus or minus 15 points of the actual blood glucose level. So a reading of 70 means 55 to 85."

So - there is much to learn in this world of Type 1 Diabetes - physical, emotional, and ----  financial.
I guess volatility occurs in all the areas - glucose readings, confusion about data, and cash register/pocket book impact.


PS -  Why Test Strips Cost so Much - Part 2

Frugal Spender Rewards

Lately I have been watching the various credit card solicitations that I have received in the last 4 months.  Yes.....  I fell prey to the new customer incentive and signed up for yet another credit card to get the bonus 60,000 rewards points (American Express who I had vowed never to open another account with them - another long story about customer service).  Now my credit cards total over 10 not including Department Stores.

Rewards points is today's version of S&H Green Stamps of the 60's.  The 1200 stamp booklet was worth about $1.20 (about a tenth a penny a stamp) and redeemed for merchandise.

The very nature of maximizing your rewards points is a game with every credit card provider to get you to use their card and/or link it to various merchants.  The rewards vary from 1% to 5% depending on merchandise category, activation, dates, and even volume of purchases (bonus points). The newest "5% war" by the credit card companies shows the vary nature of intense competition.

The economist in me says that this is another indication of inflation.  This "rebate" will be captured in either customer fees, interest rates, or passed on to the merchants who will raise prices to cover the merchant fees. 

Who are the winners and losers?  Those who pay attention to category bonuses, incentives, and pay the card balance monthly will win.  The losers are those who carry balances, pay in cash (where no discount is provided), or use a single credit card.

So the general rule of points still applies.  Each point (assuming a point is $1 of purchase) is worth a penny to five cents.  Now the average American (as of 2009) has about $50K in spending per year with 60% that own their own home and their average credit card debt (2010) is $5K.  So.....if you put 80% of your spending on a credit card and get an average 2% back - that is worth $800 per year in rewards points.

PS - For the obsessed Statistician who wants to know every statistic go to www.creditcards.com.

 

Coffee Please

Well my frugal gene kicked in today (some call it cheap) and I decided to look at the coffee budget for the family.  Susan has loved the convenience of buying on Amazon and I can see why they have over 50% of the ecommerce.  Amazon provides great order history (since inception) so it was very easy to review the last years of coffee purchases for the household.  What I wanted to do was compare pricing to Sams Club and Kroger. But it led me to another place - my own personal coffee consumption.

I reviewed orders for the household for the last 16 months from Amazon-  over $800 and almost 1300 cups.  I supply my office from the household inventory in addition to buying at Kroger.  But how could our household possible consume 1300 cups (over 80 per month)?

I personally average about 1.5 cups of coffee a day.  So assuming coffee every day that would be 548 a year or 46 per month.  At an average of 50 cents a cup that habit is $274 per year (and I suspect I'm low).  Now add the variables of coffee at restaurants, Starbucks, and coffee shops and you begin to get a picture of how much an individual spends on coffee.

I can only imagine the cost for an individual that only drinks Starbucks and possibly their exotic beverages.   Clearly a good reason for why Starbucks market cap is $87.8 Billion. 

Crossroads Church uses coffee during services and  a liberal policy of coffee anytime as a form of identity and branding ("We don't sell things").   I remember Brian Tome saying in a service that the annual coffee budget for Crossroads exceeds $100K.  Now that's a lot of cups of fellowship.

So what's the funny fugal finale?    Give liberally to the church ..... and you will receive coffee.

Pet Cost Benefits

Several days ago T.M. mentioned that they "put down" one of their two cherished pets - a dog.  Those of us who have the joy of the close companionship of pets (or any type) and have experienced their loss can empathize when someone announces their loss.  In fact, T.M. shared his history of pets and the good memories of them growing up with his children.

Mom and Dad never allowed pets (that is -  in the house) when we were growing up.  Coming from farm backgrounds animals (and pets) we always outside and served various purposes beyond just being a companion.  However, they did allow us to "adopt" a stray cat once or twice.  Fast forward and now Vana, D'Lane and I have had various pets in our families -  personally I can inventory over 18 in my last 60 years (current inventory is 2 dogs and 2 cats).

I've maintained that having pets will extend your life (and all pet owners agree).  But is this claim really true?  An interesting article on this subject "Can Pets Help You Live Longer" concludes: "Besides being good companions and adding joy to many people’s lives, pets may provide some health benefits."

My view is that 60% of U.S. Households  (165 million) must believe that the benefits of owning pets exceeds any costs - financial, emotional and physical.

 

Invisible Monthly Costs

The start of 2017 has been busy - too busy too blog.  But on a rainy, chilly, and dreary Saturday - why not start the first blog of 2017 whining. 

In an effort to clean things up (the classic get organized resolution), I decided to eliminate monthly costs of subscriptions or memberships that I have not been actively using. Or evaluate the year-to-date use to determine if it is worth the cost.

It is so easy to establish a monthly charge to a credit card (or direct debit to checking) and forget about the "forever charge".  Or even prepay a plan that automatically renews at the higher non discounted rate.

Examples include Sirius Radio, Netflix DVD, Netflix Streaming,  FiOptics extra boxes, magazine subscriptions, Amazon Prime, gym or dining memberships, computer stuff (Carbonite, Office 365, Cloud Data plans), AAA membership, On Star, Verizon extra data plans (e.g. tablet access), FiOptics internet speed, Charitable monthly giving,  even loan payments.

The frugal hint for the day is to set up a calendar reminder when plans expire (or renew) so that you can avoid this hidden inflation.  

So ...... here is my long story (and now gripe) about reviewing my FiOptics plan with Cincinnati Bell.

It all started with a lucky technical glitch when my DVR box stopped working and would not complete the boot cycle.  After calling tech support a technician was assigned to come out.  But given my relentless desire to troubleshoot, I decided to unplug everything and use my second DVR box (which was working) to systematically determine if the problem was my network configuration or one of my own complicated hardware integration switches.

The short answer to that solution was..... the adapter plug for the DVR box was defective.  WOW - go figure.  Now I understand why they ask you to directly plug the DVR box into your home outlet (vs an extension cord). 

Now for the gripe.   The above story provided the incentive to return my second DVR box (which we never use) to get the $15/mth off of my FiOptics monthly billing.  But the "need for speed" caused me to add $10/mth on to the plan to increase my data speed from 30 MBS to 50 MBS.  Sounds good right?

NOT!   I have been monitoring my download speed for the past two days only to discover my speeds are ranging from 5MBS to 37MBS with most of the time at about 10MBS.   THIS IS RIDICULOUS.  The general public is paying at least $29.99/mth (that's only if you are getting the promotional discount) for a download speed that they have no clue if they are getting and no ability to monitor the provider for proper quality control and value confirmation.

SO..... as Bob Edwards would say "What are you going to do about it"?   Stay tuned.

Calling all the Time

I have been reviewing the study that our Men's Fellowship Group did back in Sept. 2006 - "The Blueprint for Life" a study by Mike Kendrick of Ministry Ventures Inc.  The last 8 minutes of Tony Evan's talk on "The Importance of Calling" is one of the best summaries I have heard about purpose and time.

"Time is given for one reason..... to accomplish your purpose", preaches Tony.  We sit inside of time and God "ordains" that time and when it is complete.  "You can die before your time, but you can't live longer than your time" Tony adds.  So if you don't have purpose you will not use time wisely.

So what happens if you believe you have wasted time without knowing your calling?  That's the Grace you have been given - and even today you can get back those years by changing your focus.  Making the most of the time you have left recaptures the prior lack of focus.

Every time you think about death is good because it should remind you of time.  And... since we are all going to die - you might as well start living........ your Calling ........ all the time.

Giving Counts

At breakfast with fellow Social Venture Partners (Cincinnati) we began discussing philanthropy.  While SVP Cincinnati's public purpose is "to enable our investees to make the Cincinnati region a stronger and more vibrant community", I believe the real purpose is to grow an individual (a Partner) in their giving of time, talent and treasure.

Cincinnati and our giving community is one of the most philanthropic in the United States.  I remember doing the business plan for SVP Cincinnati and discovering the Cincinnati's contributions to the United Way is in the top five cities (at least back in 2007) PER CAPITA.  The Cincinnati chapter of De Tocqueville Society ($10K or more) claims over 900 members and $11M and "one of the largest chapters in the country".

Naturally the skeptic in me wanted to fact check this "marketing claim".  Indeed it is one of the largest .... but naturally it depends on how you count:

- Denver 400 $10M; Chicago 650 $12M; Milwaukee 403 $15.3M; Houston 876 $17M; Dallas; Atlanta (claiming to be the largest) >1000 members;

Even SVP International attempts to count our impact:  "With more than 3500 Partners from Boston to Bangalore, Social Venture Partners is the world’s largest network of engaged donors".  SVP Cincinnati promotes ourselves in "Giving Results" - Partners Give More, Strategically, and are More Involved in their Community. 

So are all these discussions an attempt to show Pride in Giving?  Or to be an examples/witness of the journey of a giver. 

Externally it is impossible to discern.  Internally it is impossible to measure.  Or as a more famous person said:

"Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; Everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted." Albert Einstein   (see "Counting Feelings 1/11/2011")

Red Kettle Reason

Today was a luncheon for the Salvation Army that I was graciously invited to by M.L.  It was a pleasant surprise to see Brian Tome (Sr. Pastor Crossroads) give the invocation.  We sat a tables with empty plates for a reason - to highlight the number of families that will go hungry this holiday season and how the Salvation Army tries to minister to those in need.

Luckily food was delivered to the table - "Family Style".   What a great touch to have each table pass the food and/or serve each other by passing the plates.  This annual luncheon starts off  the tradition (beginning Friday) that everyone comes to connect over the holidays - the ringing of the bell at street corners (or your local Kroger in Cincinnati)  encouraging people to put money into the Red Kettle.

So this Holiday Season - empty your pocket of change into the Red Kettle.

Active Investing Mountain

Today I was instructed to clean my office by M.L.  One of the most unsightly piles (yes I manage and file papers by piles) is all the correspondence since 12/28/15 from the Prime Clerk office regarding the Magnum Hunter Bankruptcy.

TWO FEET of paperwork with over 80 Federal Express envelopes delivered to my door (nearly one every other day).  The postage alone must exceed $500.  This mountain was the result of R.M. encouraging me to write the Judge asking him to consider Chapter 7 bankruptcy vs Chapter 11.  That innocent letter was recorded in the Prime Clerk office and I was listed as an "interested party". 

And.......  I continue to get paperwork even after the ruling (in favor of the Chapter 11) at the house.  I've decided to stop collecting it to add to my pile and will throw it away today.

My Magnum Hunter stock and preferred is now worthless - along with many other sorry investors..  While painful - it is not financial significant (I feel sorry for those that invested their retirement in Magnum) and I can add this to the list of other risky investments I have made (and have gone bankrupt) over the years (i.e. Symbolics, Learnout & Hauspie, Euro Tunnel, Euro Disney, Nortel, Presidential Casino, Webvan etc.).  

What have I learned in 40 years of investing? -  that passive investing (index investing) is the proper way to invest for your life savings.  Remember LeBouef's Law from his book "The Millionaire in You" -   -  "Invest your time actively and your money passively"

Does that mean you should avoid those tempting get rich quick ideas, or brilliance of buying the early Microsoft?   No - but only if you treat it like gambling and entertainment.  Expect to lose it all - "play money" is the term.  Also expect the time spent to be wasted also.  Don't have the illusion that the time spent on these activities will get any great return also (other than interesting topics at lunch or dinner).

But...... there is a whole industry focused on active investing arguing that with enough time and intelligence (and many add diversification), you can "beat the market".  There are plenty of stories and testimonials about those who have done it.  Just ignore the Nobel Laureates - Markowitz, Sharpe, Miller, Kahneman, and who cares about what Adam Smith, Bachelier, Samuleson, Fama, French, Galton, Sinquefield, Malkiel, von Hayek, John C. Bogle, and yes.....   Warren Buffet himself say.   Listen to those who will profit from your fees -  they have your best interest in mind.

But in the Financial Planner's defense -  They can protect you from yourself....... and TWO FEET of paper :)