Sieze the Day - EVERYDAY MATTERS

Everyday matters in the containment of COVID-19.  As a statistician and numbers obsessed individual, I have been tracking my own spreadsheet of growth rates and predictions for the USA, Ohio and Cincinnati..  My first discovery is the problem with public data sources, timing, and the relative misinformation (or misinterpretation) provided by various sources of well intended reporters doing their own analysis (like me).

As I have previously pointed out, you should focus on what most matters - outcomes - which  means deaths and recoveries (life). The absolute number of recoveries (96,958) is increasing slowly (growth rate is 3.3%) while the absolute number of deaths (14,573) is increasing rapidly (growth rate 12.5%).  The growth rate of worldwide infections is 11% percent and based on cumulative infections to day the death percentage is 4.3%  and slowly inching up  (based on worldwide data - 340K infections and 14.6K deaths). What do all these numbers really mean?

This data analysis is a moving target. So here is a case where the input of new infections is like a fire hose filling a water bucket while the data about the outcomes of death and recovery are only a few tiny holes letting the water out of the bucket. We are trying to plug the death holes and widen the recovery holes while trying to slow the rate of water going into the bucket. Since the outcome holes are small and are slow in flow (5% or less) , the most important variable is the input - which is overwhelmingly large and fast in flow (11% Worldwide). The bucket is filling rapidly!

With that in mind, I have concentrated my thinking with the rate of input - compound growth rate of new infections in the USA and Ohio (35.9% and 45% respectively).   Next most important question is to determine when that growth rate begins to diminish - predicting the PEAK of the growth rate curve (with the only data available and suspect - Wuhan and China).

Using March 1 as a starting point in the USA with 62 cases of COVID-19, I have been tracking with various data sources reporting the cumulative number of infections in the USA , Ohio and most selfishly where I live Cincinnati.  As of 3:00pm EST the USA compound growth rate in infections is 35.9% for 21 days (3/1 - 3/22) and 45% Ohio for 7 days (3/15 - 3/22) and in Cincinnati - no growth rate yet but 4 known cases. To be fair, this analysis assumes a start date in March versus the real ground zero infection point which likely occurred sometime in mid February.

Look at these charts:

This shows why the implicit growth rate is so important and dramatic.  Why we hope that we are on a 20% curve versus a 42% curve and why we hope the curve peaks at 26 days versus 61 days.

This is why the Governors of each state in the USA (like China already has done) are rapidly ordering "draconian" measures to attempt to minimize the  absolute numbers in new infections regardless of the real compound growth rate  and the unknown death rate as a percentage of infections.  This also why EVERYDAY MATTERS!!!!

Next blog entry coming -  WHEN IS THE PEAK?  ---- pray for 26 days or less.