The Data Tells Me So

 As a closet (and old) Statistician, I am very disturbed about the data analysis going on around COVID-19 - the clinical trials, the data reported about breakthrough cases, the death data, hospitalizations, comorbidity, .. etc. etc.  And the old adage "The Devil is in the Detail" totally applies.   

Add to this Devil Data Detail problem is the Media Mania Mega horn creating confirming bias in the face of the large spectrum of human fear, uncertainty and doubt.  Then you have the desire to correlate political views into a divisive intellectual divide of blaming, shaming, and defaming each other.  

I recognize this is a global moving target of information, science, and parity.  Another global humanity test on the scale of World War survival impact.  How we respond globally and not nationally will be how we measure success.   India (who declared premature victory) and Brazil (who declared premature fearlessness) are now suffering.  The USA, UK and Israel now cautiously tempted to forecast freedom are in danger of their own nationalistic premature conclusions of what we believe "the science tells us".

Unfortunately the data is still in process.   150 million known (or estimated) positive COVID-19 cases and 3.157 million deaths is just a drop in the bucket of an estimated world population of 7.86 Billion (as of 4pm EST). This is still considered a small sample size to Statisticians.   

As a confirmed skeptic, the data I look at only provides "recent-cy bias" (if that's a word) for those declaring victory.  The only certainty I claim is that the healthcare science knows .... what it knows but doesn't know (or publish) what it doesn't know.   The famous Donald Rumsfeld quote that set the reporters into paradoxical philosophy - "There are Known Knowns".  

Please don't tell me - "The Science Tells Me So"; or "The Data Tells Me So";  

Chainsaw Grieving and Grace

It all started (November 2020) with an idea from the Book Club group after we read "Peace is Every Step: The Path of Mindfulness in Everyday Life  by Thich Nhat Hanh.  That idea converged with K.C.'s announcement that he had a new gadget - a battery operated chainsaw.  Putting those two "nudges" together, I decided to create a "Prayer Path" in our backyard forest.   

The Amazon Easter Bunny arrived with my new ECHO 16 in Cordless Chainsaw April 3 (yes it takes that long for me to ponder new projects).   Of course the previous four months I was doing analysis/paralysis on which Chainsaw to purchase and getting great advice and Youtube links from A.M.  (and others).

Many people warned me of the challenges of cutting down the evasive honeysuckle and specifically J.R. told me not to use the chainsaw on the small stuff.  But did I listen to him...... NOooooooooo,

Now to the story :)

On the second time out (Sat. Apr. 10, 2021) I continued my project of clearing out the honeysuckle.   Two hours into the project the chain slipped off the 16 inch saw blade.  Hmmmm,  could it be because I was lazy and was using the chainsaw on the small roots like a sickle?   Tired and irritated that I had not taken J.R.'s advice, I sat down to grumble..... and then grief set in. 

In situations like this, my first phone call would have been to Dad.  Somehow Dad had not  passed down the handyman gene to me.  In fact, instead of patiently finding the user manual and tackling the job myself, my normal mode of operation would be to just call DAD for HELP and instruction.   But that 65 year old reliable help line was disconnected.  

Unwilling to risk the "non handyman guy embarrassment", I had no courage to try a different help line call to J.R., A.M.  or any of my other handyman backups. To call them for instruction would risk losing my handyman self esteem.  To lazy to go get the user manual, I decided to just figure this out by trial and error.

After re-attaching the chain, I  dutifully retrieved the loppers from the garage and began manually cutting the small roots of the honeysuckle correctly until the next three inch diameter root appeared.  Time for my newly attached chain with the chainsaw!!!   At the press of the button and connection to the root.... -  the chain acted as if would take a year to cut completely through the root.  I HAD PUT THE CHAIN ON BACKWARDS!

Sitting down again... knowing the rule my Dad always followed - "As you take things apart, carefully document and lay out the exact configuration for re-assembly" thoughts of failure reentered my mind.  Next step ...  actually trudge up the hill to find the user manual that I had been told to always put in a place I would remember with all other user manuals.  Another rule of thumb I constantly had ignored.

Luckily, I found the manual, spent the time to read the instructions, and reapplied the chain.   In seconds the chain sliced through the root and my handyman stature and manly self esteem was reinstated.   

Now it was time for confession.   I popped off a text to A.M. 

What a comforting text back from A.M. after both grieving and feeling unworthy.  We all need GRACE  in our times of trouble and sorrow.  That GRACE washes away our grieving and self imposed lies of unworthiness.  The light of love emerges from the depths of darkness. Follow the path of light.

Heaven Board #17 - Grandparent Club

Susan and I were just inducted into the Grandparent club.  God's gift to Jenna and Paul occurred at 6:28am EDT as Theodore Lee Robinson (8lbs 7oz and 21 inches) entered this world.  We are blessed that Jenna (with Paul) managed her T1D in such a successful pregnancy.   

The Rookie Grandparents are prevented from holding Theodore because of Hospital COVID-19 restrictions and we will await the discharge of Jenna and Theodore accompanied by driver and proud new father Paul.  

All the nests are prepared - nursery at two locations - parents and grandparents.   What a year of change with two Heaven Board entries!   

Plenty of room for more :)