New Time and Space - Xmas 2020

 

Wisner Family (et al) December 2020

As the 202^nd decade descends, we welcome its close.  After three consecutive years visiting ICU rooms, we look forward to the end of COVID-19 and the hope of NEW TIME and SPACE for the next decade – 01-01-2021.   

 

Ellen (NEW JOB) – Now holds the Cum Laude College GPA family record along with the shortest Graduation ceremony in history.  She can now Escape from college homework into calling Fidelity Investments her center of Serious(7) Studies.  Ellen fought like a Tiger for savings for a Jeep – I guess she will settle for the moon.

 

Jenna and Paul Robinson (NEW LIFE) – Making room for new life is not easy. Olfactory odors overwhelmed ownership.  But a new sunroom, bathroom, and emerging nursery, created the necessary diversion and it seems the future is in full swing.   SO FAr the Councilrock offsite storage solution is working. 

 

Susan – (NEW SKILLS) – Nothing to conceal in her dislike about the election results, Susan refused this year to carry any virus and scooted COVID-19 free this year.  Adding Drug Free clients to her business allowed a new view from her desk.  With the deep pockets of Sports Club investments and grocery errand expeditions, Alexa announced the “Best Mom in the World” – as one who provides daily nutritional meals on wheels. 

 

Garen – (NEW HEALTH) – His new COVID-10lb diet let Garen ZOOM down to his college weight.  Now that he is more than halfway to 70, he finally grew the TV size beyond his height and age.  Competing with Amazon, his Christian Man delivery route was supplemented with his own prime series.  Hiding in his own basement, the outdoor patio heater extends his Man Cave activities. 

 

It was a grave day when Cincinnati lost its Painters, but friendship is an absolute truth despite a Boston Illegal gathering.  Even with cancellations of the Rockies and Hilton Head, the family squeezed in travel to KS, NV, NY, and FL.  But ten months of shelter in place gave us full understanding of like inside invisible fences and COVID restricted Nursing Homes. 

 

Susan and I are blessed to have a parent each to honor and protect – DNA history of good physical and spiritual well-being.  Falls are hard but calls are heard.  The COVID-19 veil clouds our physical connections with family and friends.  Even so, the bonds of relationships are eternal regardless of time and space. 

 

  Merry Christmas and

       Happy New Year

“Time and Space are not conditions in which we live,

but modes by which we think.”      Albert Einstein

Boston Legal #21 - COVID or NOT

 Thursday Sept. 17 was another "mini" Boston Legal with just smokes and drinks imposed by the outside gathering constraints of COVID-19. Hosted at the Councilrock location, the days of Cincinnati gatherings may be limited as J.P. exits soon.   Zoom calls would be a weak substitute but predicting any future of 2021 is futile.  

No theme was even attempted for the evening other than to end in the frustrated feeling around our views of the threat of COVID-19.  Looking at the numbers daily, I can easily see (even in myself at that age) the college age attitudes of "get it  and get it over with".  As fall approaches our vigilance needs bolstering right at the time of weary fatigue.  

Today's news from United Kingdom predicting a fall growth in COVID-19 cases predates an October Halloween scare and created a market selloff.  Will a similar second wave occur like the 1918 Spanish Flu?  Even the hope of an early vaccine could be no different than the misguided belief that aspirin would control the Spanish Flu and may have contributed to deaths due to aspirin poisonings. The only sure thing we know is how much we don't know.

Weary not Worry is now my word for this crisis.  Lament not Laugh is the emotion.   What not Why is the thought exercise.  Hope not Helpless is the attitude.  

  

 

DESERVED or DESIRED

The BIG surprise for Ellen ended up being only a partial one today.  For years Ellen has wanted me to purchase a BIG TV and every trip to Sams Club we would look and look and I would tease her saying "Some day soon I would replace our TV.  The old Sony KDS 50A2000 SDRX (Vintage 2006) would just not bite the dust and it's HD 1080i backlit projection was "good enough" (and ahead of it's time).  

But the power of suggestion (by A.S.) and the building boredom of shelter in place lit the fuse and rekindled the fire of High Definition Desire.  The bomb dropped on August 1 at midnight with the super August 1 sale - call it the COVID-19 purchase bomb.

For a month prior to this sale I had been in analysis/paralysis mode over features and cost.   Should I go BIG (80+ inches)?  Should I go high tech (OLED)?  Was 60hz or 120 hz refresh rate required?  The feature list was endless.  Again paradox of choice sets in (which is great for the frugal gene.

In the end, it was the sale price and gift card incentive that trumped the variables - final price $9.12 per inch.  Yes, I settled for the LG 75" Class 4K UltraHD w/AI ThinQ - 75UN7370).  But... alas the low cost was absorbed with all the add-ons -  wall mount, sound system, and who knows what else will follow.

So it was the wall mount that ruined the BIG surprise for Ellen since it arrived at home today while she was at home.  So I had to spill the beans early.  However the excitement builds as we both await the TV and sound system next week.  That gives me plenty of time to ponder the math of proper viewing height, distance and viewing "footprint".  The old Sony 50 inch had 1068 sq inches (16:9) of viewing pleasure and the 75 inch LG weighs in at 2042 sq inches - a 91% Improvement!

This purchase demonstrates the challenge of desire over need in our consumerism obsession.  As Susan rightly indicated - "We don't NEED a new TV".  But the desire dangerously developed as depression dived deeper daily :)

COVID-19 is changing behaviors exponentially in addition to its spread - attitudes about home life, entertainment, travel, work, technology, relationships, health and yes .......  even age and mortality.

My first BIG HD TV screen size was justified based on age. After all I had turned 51 - I DESERVED a 50 inch TV.  Now at 65, I guess I DESIRED something larger than my age.

Choose Your COVID-19 Variable

It has been 183 days of gathering COVID-19 statistics and Day 165 of my shelter in place caution.  On March 1, 2020 I began using World Health Organization data to track cases and deaths in the USA (62 cases and 0 deaths).  I switched to Worldometer Coronavirus on March 24th and started tracking local statistics in April.

Like a good statistician and forecaster, I kept track of my predictions of when hospital beds and/or ICU beds would hit capacity based on some swags about 15% of Cases Hospitalized, 5% ICU and an average of 7 days in hospital using the current daily compounded growth rates.

In the highest daily growth phase (30-35%) early March it was easy to predict without major reduction in growth rates the USA would run out of beds in early April. On April 2 the compound growth rate had dropped in half to 15% and was rapidly decreasing each day (from 15% to 2.3%) so that by May 13 a reasonable 1.5% daily growth rate seem stabilized.   Yet even with that growth rate I was predicting capacity of ICU bed availability by June 16. 

Where was my error?  It was the SWAG of 15% Hospitalization and 5% ICU along with average 7 days in either condition. 

Now with more data the hospitalization numbers are more revealing.   NY Times reported yesterday that USA hospitalization is hovering near the peak of 59,940 on April 15 (on that day the USA had 644,089 Positive Cases; 28,529 Cumulative Deaths; 48,701Recovered; 566,859 Active Cases; and a daily growth rate in positive cases ranging from 4-6%).  That is only 10.6% of the Active Cases.  Consequently my SWAG was double that (20% for both hospitalization and ICU).

Now with more revealing hospitalization numbers the average time in hospital of 7 days was grossly understated and is more likely 22 days depending on age (see Indiana Article - Average COVID-19 Hospital Stay Greater Than Three Weeks).

So  what am I predicting now?    Based on a 1.8% Daily Growth Rate in Positive COVID-19 cases and 10% Hospitalization of Active Cases (which decreases from 49% of Cases by 0.25% daily) - then....  we WILL NOT run out of Hospital Beds.  However ICU may be strained by early October (assuming 2% of the active cases require ICU). 

BTW -  A 1.8% growth rate is still dangerous!  With USA cases at 4.17 Million on 7/23/2020 and a 1.8% Daily growth unchecked the USA will have 66 million positive cases by Christmas.

Holy or Hollow

I missed the blog on July 1 - a milestone for Dad - his 95th birthday.  So many memories of spending time together on his birthday because of summer visits around the July 4th holiday.  So sad that this time I'm restricted from physically seeing him due to Nursing Home rules in this COVID-19 crisis.

Dad's lifestyle and genes have contributed to his longevity.   His Dad lasted to 102 and his Aunt to 110.  Most of my home video collection was during the years Dad was approaching his retirement (1991 - 2005) when he was 66.  Now I'm close to that age and as I see him in videos it makes me understand how quickly life progresses.  When you look back it looks fast with short runways and when you look forward it seems slow with endless runway.

COVID-19 has placed generational differences directly into the spotlight.  Thirty to forty years of difference is clearly identified in the infections and deaths.  I wonder what Dad thought his runway would be at age 66.  My father-in-law died at age 69 and that had great impact on me.   Even now I consider carefully what my next four years would be like should my runway end prematurely.

So many people avoid thinking about the end of breath in this world.  Yesterday was the completion of the study of Matthew with the Wednesday morning BC 715 (Breakfast Club at 7:15am).  We discussed Matthew 27:52-53 (bones resurrected) which the theologians notes reference Ezekiel 37  (dry bones).  Coincidentally Ezekiel 37 was Day 5 of the Daily Devotional book I am reading "40 Days with the Holy Spirit"  by Jack Levison. 

"We adopt compromised values that numb us to real life.  We accept practices that inoculate us from real faith.  We absorb distractions that derail us from pure spirituality.  We become ...... sarkikos: merely human.  Our longings shut down. We stop hungering and yearning for for GOD altogether.  We need resurrection."  Day 5 pg 17

COVID-19 is taking breath from many;  making dry bones for many;  exposing the values, practices and distractions of being "merely human".   How will you respond?    Holiness or Hollowness?

Boston Legal #20 - Fellowship of the Rings

Thursday June 25th was the 20th Boston Legal almost 7 years to the day when we first decided to create the tradition - https://garenwisner.blogspot.com/2013/06/cincinnati-legal.html.  K.C. hosted the during the original idea and so it was fitting we sat poolside for the 20th meeting talking about world affairs, philosophy, books, movies, and family. 

An interesting topic came to the surface about family heirlooms - the stuff that carries generational memories.  It caused me to document the history of a cosmetic costume jewelry ring that my Grandmother wanted her descendants to have.  It was a nugget ruby glass ring in a bezel setting  with a yellow gold ornamental filigree setting. 

It was given to my Grandmother by Vingie E. Roe (a cousin of my Grandfather).  Vingie E. Roe was the granddaughter of Cyrenus Frank Castanien and considered an accomplished American novelist and screenwriter (for B&W silent movies).  She wrote more than 30 novels, mostly Westerns "with a feminist twist".  I suspect Vingie (19 years older than Grandmother) was looked on as the "rich and famous" and connected to Hollywood.   When my Grandparents took a vacation and drove from Oklahoma to California (in the 40's) they stopped by to see Vingie Roe. Vingie gave the ring to Grandmother out of kindness and as a trip memory.

Susan like the design of the ring and I decided to have a copy made for her to wear.  Coincidentally the copied ring was given to Susan - Christmas 2001 which was the opening of the movie "The Fellowship of the Ring.

There are actually 4 more copies so that each granddaughter (should they like it also) could have a ring just like the original. Hence the family heirloom might pass through yet another generation.

Great ideas and discussions come from the fellowship of the Boston Legal trio.  This incented me to find the rings - document the story and research the history of the movement of the ring.

How interesting it would be if Rings could Sing their story.

Emotional Volatility

I am rapidly getting weary (as many in the USA are) with shelter-in-place; gradual reopening; social distancing; masking; and virtual meetings.   While I have poked my head out of the turtle shell with meetings outside with friends; doubles tennis; and even social distancing/masking small group and worship activities;  I am tired of the constant news and conversations about COVID-19.  My time at home is now approaching the 100th day.

I continue to monitor with my own statistical model the various World, USA, State and Local data.  Even know the number of cases in my zip code (25) with hospitalizations (7) and deaths (under 3). The numbers are getting large which contributes to smaller growth rates. 

The USA stock market seems to be in the twilight zone with a V shaped recovery, sprinkled with radical emotional volatility based on news of the day.  If my attention to the market and renewed trading activity is any indication of a trend then there are lots of people speculating and creating volatility with zero commission costs of "nervous energy ".   My prior Financial Advisor (T.A.) said it best - "Nervous energy is one of the greatest destroyers of wealth".

The recent outrage of George Floyd's death with demonstrations, protests, and autonomous zone anarchy I believe escalated as a result of the rapid growth in emotional stress associated with COVID-19 and the shut down of the economy.  Oh.... stir in a dose of polarized red state and blue state political fear of the next election and you get a perfect storm of emotional pressure ready to blow up. 

What's the vaccine for emotional volatility?   Find what eliminates your nervous energy.

https://listenforjoy.com/collections/well-loved-images/products/deep-breath

Not Catbird, or Bobcat - Albino Peacock

This shelter in place has provided nature and us more time to understand each other.   SO -  a story of the last four weeks is worth sharing.

In late April, Susan texted me a picture of an albino Peacock that she assured was indeed a peacock as confirmed by our landscaper.  How interesting 10 years ago we had sighted an albino Squirrel in our neighborhood which has disappeared.   So, I placed no hope is seeing the peacock myself.

However,  when I was clearing some brush in our backyard (Saturday May 2), the Peacock sauntered across the yard.

Everyone that I have shared this with say.... NAH... that's just a turkey.

OK - hold that thought (the mysterious large white fowl).

For the past month Ellen has been hearing a crying meow of a cat each evening.  Once she pointed out the muffled sound, I began hearing it regularly also and would walk around the house saying "Here Kitty Kitty" attempting to find the distressed kitty.

OK - hold that thought (the distressed kitten mystery). 

About three weeks ago  (Monday May 4th)  as J.R., A.M. and I were sipping an adult beverage in my backyard, J.R. pointed out the large open wound on Bella's  (my female dog) hind end.   On later inspection there were also wounds on her shoulder blade and Fitch (the male dog) also had just recovered from his own wound in his hind quarters.   Somehow the dogs were getting hurt.

OK - hold that thought (the wounded outdoor dogs).

Back in early February,  I was out one night wondering why the dogs were barking so much.  I flipped on the back porch light and in the distance on the edge of our grass yard, a coyote was taunting the dogs.  He ran back into the woods briefly on the sight of my presence, only to become comfortable and race back into the yard confronting the dogs.

OK - hold that thought (the aggressive coyote theory).

Susan was up early Sunday morning (May 9th) and heard the distressed kitten sound at the side of our house. That morning she mentioned that maybe the sound wasn't a feline but a bird.  Maybe a bird makes a sound like a cat -  maybe a catbird?    So we google "Catbird" and play the sound....   no luck the sound didn't come close.   So I have the brilliant idea (based on the wounded dogs) maybe there is a Bobcat in the neighborhood.   I google Bobcat sounds and discover they indeed make a sound similar but not exactly what we have been hearing.

OK - hold that thought (the potential Bobcat theory)

In describing the Bobcat theory to as many people that would listen to my stories, I would get various comments back.  Yes, there are Bobcats in the area.  Yes, they are good for the area since they thin the coyote ranks.  However, they are recluse and likely would not be aggressive with dogs.  But .... for the next two weeks the Bobcat theory reigned. Then more evidence arrived at the foot of the garage door.

What have we here?    The skull of a ????????   Brought forward from Bella - the hunter.

OK - hold that thought (the mysterious animal skull bone)

Our landscaper returned to mow the lawn (Saturday May 30).    Diplomatically he listened to our theory but put the pieces of the puzzle together - and offers the Sherlock Holmes explanation:

What you are hearing is the albino Peacock (since he was an expert at making the Peacock call himself).  The dogs might have been wounded from a confrontation with an aggressive coyote or just got into their own internal squabble.  The deer head skull is evidence the coyotes were feasting somewhere near the dog's perimeter that allowed Bella to retrieve the skull of a deer.

OK -  you now need verification - right?   SO yesterday with J.R., A.M. and A.S.,   I decide to reiterate the LONG story above while playing the Peacock sound.  While playing that sound outside,  within the hour A.S. said....."I don't believe it -   there it is .....  and next to the bird feeder the Albino Peacock had arrived. 

CASE CLOSED  - Not a Catbird or Bobcat  -  an Albino Peacock

Addendum/Editorial Correction:

The WHITE Peacock is one of the most beautiful and rarest fowl in the world. It is not Albino since the eyes are blue.  The white color symbolizes purity, eternity and unconditional love.  

Source:  HOBI TERNAK

Boston Illegal #19

Thursday evening May 14, 2020 was my 56th official day at home (Shelter in Place).  I have literally not left the house more than 4 times in my car  (Ellen & Susan have been my concierge for food and sundries).  I have physically seen only twelve people for these 56 days.   Since Ohio was opening up it was time for a socially physical distancing time - Boston Legal. #19.

Once the spouses heard about this they decided to have their Boston Illegal on the front patio.  The need for physical social interaction is clearly a mandatory emotional need.  The movie Castaway with Tom Hanks remains one of my favorite movies as it shows the willingness to risk death for relationship connectiveness.

It does not surprise me that the USA is opening up and emotions are riding high between the extroverts and introverts. Suddenly a new education about natural rights and freedoms become the day to day discussions about the shelter-in-place orders and pending orders about masks and gloves.

J.P. had sent me a link to Randy Barnett's discussion about Individual Liberty in a Pandemic.  Little did I understand the overriding weight of my freedom as defined by the Ohio Constitution (vs the Federal Constitution).  I have never read the Ohio Constitution!

No movie for this Boston Legal  -  however I decided to post facto watch one as the suggested homework -   Charlton Heston in "The Omega Man" (1971).   Little did I realize this was just a COVID-19 movie showing all the people that decided to ignore shelter in place and stay out late at night :)

Blame Game - 2

I've caught the "bug" in learning about the mystery of  influenza. Funny how subjects I hated in high school - biology and history - I am now enjoying learning about.   Over the past few days I have watched the Great Courses Lectures #11-13  "The 1918 Flu" - Professor Bruce E. Fleury ;  the Smithsonian America's Hidden Stories - "Pandemic 1918" ;  and the most interesting - a 2014 lecture at the University of Arizona  -  "The Genesis of the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic" ;

Professor Michael Worobey speculates (with very persuasive data) that we can blame the Spanish Flu on a Canadian Horse!   Even more interesting is the history of influenza and what age group may have the best immunity to different strains.

I was most intrigued at Professor Michael Worobey's  answer to the question about this slide stating a "Lab Escape" of H1N1: 

"In 1957 the Spanish Flu went extinct when H2N2 emerged in 1963.  H3N2 kicked out H2N2 but in 1977 there was a kind of mini pandemic and H1N1 re-emerged and bottom line if you look at the molecular clock it [H1N1] was frozen in time not even since 1957 but it was a 1950 N1 strain and it is virtually certain it was an accidental mistake probably from an experimental strain from China or Russia.  And so - yes - the first pathogen in human history was accidentally re-released and not to many people know about it until you guys."

The strange spike in 2017-2018 in deaths from influenza is put in context in this interview with Worobey in Feb. 2018:  

Even Worobey's research on HIV-1 is fascinating discovering strains of this circulating in the 1970's before the outbreak in the US was recognized - see article "Findings of how AIDs spread across North America" 

Bottom-line -  when you were born and what your first battle with influenza was may determine your success in the fight with COVID-19. 

Blame Game

Now the escalating viral gossip circulating the internet and news media is the attempt to find the "cause" of the COVID-19 crisis. The blame game is a natural human tendency - especially when it comes to a virus.   So often when we get the flu we try to determine the cause - or really who gave it to you.  In fact the whole discussion and ramp up for tracing mechanisms is one of the critical needs for relaxing the shelter-in-place to properly quarantine those individuals at risk of spreading the virus.

Tracing automatically reinforces the historical look back at who or where was the first incident.  It was fascinating to listen to the lineage of the Santa Clara County Tracing: 

The conspiracy theories about the source of the virus in Wuhan China and whether it was caused by a mistake in the lab or in the wet market will rage on.  Blaming the Chinese for this virus would be like blaming the USA (now thinking the Spanish Flu started in Kansas) for the start and spread of the Spanish Flu.   What gain comes from blaming anyone for the crisis?

Yes there is always a benefit to understanding a cause if it provides a benefit of avoid future problems.  However when the search for a cause is primarily to "damn" the source and to redirect the attention away from solving the problem while at the same time washing your hands from responsibility of current actions - then looking for the cause is a waste of precious time and resources that can be applied to solving the problem.

Does naming "Patient ZERO" help?  Should we damn that person?  Should we damn wet markets?  Should we damn the Chinese? 

"He who is without sin, cast the first stone"

Normal Numbers Nonsense?

The discussion (sometimes called argument) continues about whether COVID-19 is anymore serious that the normal flu.  Everyone is second guessing each state's Governor's response, the Federal Government's response and comparing our death rate to other countries responses to this pandemic.  J.P. even asked what level of deaths in the U.S. would justify praise for the state and federal response?

The real underlying issue is what is a pandemic?   History provides some clue to this answer.  Start with what is considered the 5-6 Worst Pandemics in History .

(1) The Bubonic Plague/Black Death 1347- 1351 75-200 million deaths worldwide
(2) Spanish Flu (H1N1) -  1918-1919 50 million worldwide deaths (675,000 USA)
(3) Asian Flu  (H2N2) - 1957  1.1 million worldwide deaths (116,000 USA)
(4) Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) - 1968  1 million worldwide deaths (100,000 USA)
(5) Swine Flu (H1N1) - 2009-2010  575,400 worldwide deaths (12,469 USA)
(6) HIV/AIDS -  1980 - 2006  25 million deaths worldwide (still in process)

The Worldometer Coronavirus daily count is now at 233,686 worldwide deaths and 63,765 in USA so by the numbers it may surpass the #4 and #3 in absolute numbers. 

But the absolute numbers are still flawed in revealing a solution.   For example:  The Spanish Flu, which lasted 36 months, in it's first wave (Jan 1918 - October 1918)  killed 200,000 people in the USA (about 0.194% of the 103 million population). The estimated infected population was 1/3 so the actual mortality rate for the first wave was about 0.582%.   Presented in a percentage that number seems no different from the seasonal flu.  This numbers nonsense is used to criticize the shelter-in-place actions (either soft or hard).

A recent RedState article was sent to me "If Wuhan Virus Is SoBad, Why Are Deaths So Low?" that attempted to justify why "There is really no medical reason to pursue this nonsense." The data looks legitimate sourcing from the CDC, yet a quick check on the actual site of Vital Statistics shows quite a different picture.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/

After lengthy conversation with P.N.,  I gave up trying to use numbers to convince him that this crisis is approaching the severity of the Spanish Flu and is well beyond the mortality numbers of a normal flu season in the USA.  Finally we both agreed that based on today's nonsensical numbers that by year end deaths in the USA could approach 100K - 120K.

It just shows that normal - is in whatever numbers make you feel normal.  And that's the definition of  nonsense - predicting deaths that we call "normal levels".

Lessons of History

"Those who cannot learn from History are doomed to repeat it"  was stated by George Santayana and ironically lived during the Spanish Flu and was from Spain (the country that inherited the name for the tragic Spanish Flu that likely started in Kansas).

I think the country (and possibly the world) might be experiencing deja vu on this COVID-19 pandemic.   Read some of the quotes from the Smithsonian article about the Spanish Flu:

By July [1918] it didn’t seem to matter. As a U.S. Army medical bulletin reported from France, the “epidemic is about at an end...and has been throughout of a benign type.” A British medical journal stated flatly that influenza “has completely disappeared.”

SEPT 1918 The second wave had begun. -  Across the country, public officials were lying. U.S. Surgeon General Rupert Blue said, “There is no cause for alarm if precautions are observed.” New York City’s public health director declared “other bronchial diseases and not the so-called Spanish influenza...[caused] the illness of the majority of persons who were reported ill with influenza.” The Los Angeles public health chief said, “If ordinary precautions are observed there is no cause for alarm.” Now the head of the Army’s communicable disease division, he jotted down his private fear: “If the epidemic continues its mathematical rate of acceleration, civilization could easily disappear...from the face of the earth within a matter of a few more weeks.”  Then, as suddenly as it came, influenza seemed to disappear. It had burned through the available fuel in a given community. An undercurrent of unease remained, but aided by the euphoria accompanying the end of the war, traffic returned to streets, schools and businesses reopened, society returned to normal.

A third wave followed in January 1919, ending in the spring. This was lethal by any standard except the second wave ……   After that third wave, the 1918 virus did not go away, but it did lose its extraordinary lethality, partly because many human immune systems now recognized it and partly because it lost the ability to easily invade the lungs. No longer a bloodthirsty murderer, it evolved into a seasonal influenza.  Another question concerns who died. Even though the death toll was historic, most people who were infected by the pandemic virus survived; in the developed world, the overall mortality was about 2 percent. 

Source:  https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/

Looking further into the politics of the time, the political fight over entry into WW I preceded the virus and I'm sure Woodrow Wilson became distained for his actions at that time (both War and Pandemic).   

J.P. wondered what level of deaths in the US would justify praise for the state and federal response?  Until the election is over, and we are out of economic hardship, the cacophony of BOTH praise and criticism will be deafening.  Once that time fades in our memory, it will be sounds of silence with another lesson of history forgotten for a more enlightened generation to ignore.  

Jesus Christ could have come down and halted the virus on Easter and there would still be critics saying he arrived on the scene late :)

Virtual Castaway

At 3pm yesterday my mental alarm clock and calendar went off.  I had totally "spaced out" a Zoom meeting that I was to lead at 7pm.   The Shelter in Place has put my life and routine in the Twilight Zone.  I can even remember how many days I have been isolated as a castaway.  Like a prisoner, maybe I should start a daily hash mark on the wall. I started distancing in my office March 9 but transferred to home shelter in place March 24 and haven't been outside my neighborhood more than three times. 

The debate continues about death rates, proper ways to resume business, who's to blame, immediate health risks, and the extent of long term emotional, physical and financial damage. Pressure is building on all fronts.

Call it a "sick" bet but I finally bet a lunch with P.N. on the mortality percentage of estimated COVID-19 infections on November 4th (the day of elections).  This crisis has put a great emphasis on death - an inevitable result for all of us.  Naturally the human instinct is to extend life as long as feasible, and our compassion is demonstrated in our attempts to curtail premature death in others. 

Of the 57million deaths worldwide 54% can be attributed to the top 10 causes: 

Based on this chart - 3 million are lower respiratory infections (Influenza; pneumonia).   Also this chart varies dramatically based on developed countries and undeveloped countries.

The macro view of humanity is to understand how to allocate economic resources to slow the rate of death for the greatest number of individuals (a utilitarian philosophy).   However, the individual personal decision comes down to the selfish motive of extending your life with family and friends.  

The tragedy of this crisis is the inability to be near those you love who are dying. No one wants to die alone!   As virtual castaways, how can we be near those we love who are dying?  -  only one way.  The same way to extend life beyond this world.

Micro vs Macro Views

Some might title the micro view of this crisis "Looking out for #1" ( like the 70's book by Robert Ringer) - it all comes down to "How will the COVID-19 affect me and my family?

For two weeks I've been looking through the rear view mirror at COVID-19 data (Worldwide, USA and State). Even trying to forecast the traffic pattern and peak rush hour risk in the future (with limited success).  But how do you predict what's happening on the local road you are traveling on?  How can you predict how many cars are on YOUR local road and how many are on the road miles ahead of your present position?   More cars are entering the road hourly, more probability of collision with the chance of major accident with possible fatal outcomes.

That took me to the Seattle and King County road map.  Why not see what happened there where the first car entered the USA highway network.

I was amazed at the quality of the Seattle and King County Public Health site and Coronavirus Dashboard:

As a Statistician, I know it is dangerous to pick one data point especially since at least 55 of the cases and 20 of the deaths in King County are related to one physical site - Life Care Center of Kirkland.  This instance makes up almost 10% of the County Deaths all of which were probably residents over the age of 80.   But even with that outlier this data is worth reviewing.

Here are my observations  (rounded for convenience):
(1)  87% of those tested  are Negative
(2) Number of tests per day is about 1K
(3) While the compounded growth rate since the first instance (2/28) to April 4 is 29%, the daily percentage increase was about 4% for April 4th.
(4) More Men than Women test Positive  (W-11%;  M-16%)
(5)You don't want to be 80+ in age (Death % of Positive Cases = 24%)
(7) Best to be under 60  0.8% (Death % of Positive Cases)
(8) Better to be female that male (W-8% Death; M-6% Death)

When looking at the micro view - the fear depends on your age and sex (also pre-existing health issues as reported elsewhere). Now suddenly the potential solutions become more individualized.

The micro view would focus on individual quarantine and age and health based physical/social distancing or shelter-in-place.  This might be a ramp-up strategy for restarting the US economy.

Whether micro of macro, the actions to take will be an experiment we will all have to live with and learn from for future outbreaks.

Macro vs Micro Views

Two weeks ago, I posted the data I felt was most meaningful - outcomes only- recovery and deaths. The March 22 Death rate % of closed cases was 12.93%

The new Death Rate (April 5th) on closed cases is 20.78%. Not good. 

Yet the debate in the USA polarized by an election year continues to rage about what actions on a local, state and federal level should be taken to mitigate the virus impact on human life and economic hardship.

I have even flip flopped emotionally on the cost/benefit of the various lockdowns.   My opinion toggles between looking at the data from a macro view (lock it down) to the micro view (let the youth go free).

Today's blog is the Macro view.  I have compiled the comparison of 5 countries - USA, Italy, Germany, China and S. Korea for the inflow and death outflow.

The two line charts of logarithmic and the desired view is the flattening of the curve (meaning the growth rate stops).  China's line goes almost completely flat (somewhere at 30-40 days) and S. Korea has a very minor slope (after 15-20 days).  Not so good a picture for USA, Italy and Germany well past the 30 days and growing.

The macro/global view would favor locking down the country using Federal control until the curve flattens and deaths level out.  This benefits not only the country involved but provides containment within a country and favors an international containment strategy.

However the micro view (wait for a subsequent blog) favors a more liberal view and focuses on just the threatened age group and those with pre-existing conditions.

That's a stupid question

I've been watching too much news lately. Maybe this pet peeve blog is the result of too much cabin fever - but here goes.   

I'm tired of guests being interviewed answering a reporter's question with:  "That's a real good question"; or "That's an important question"; "Thanks for asking that question; or various derivatives.  

Let me first say that we were taught in school, There is no dumb question or always ask when you don't understand.  So when a person say's that's a real good question, would they be telling the truth if your question was not a good question?  Or if they don't respond measuring the quality of your question, are they by default considering your question dumb?

Maybe they are just "buying time" to think about their response.  Maybe they are just over aggrandizing you with platitudes.  Maybe it's just an irritating habit similar to saying ugh, and ah during speaking to fill silence. Maybe it is just a walkie, talkie version of acknowledging hearing - "Over".

Colin Powell said "There are no such thing as a stupid question, only stupid answers"

I would add - a likely stupid answer begins with -  "I'm so glad you asked that question, it is so..... important".

What Day is it?

No wonder prisoner's and castaways need a system of tracking days.  Even though this is Sunday, the routines are all off.  It will take discipline to keep the daily and weekend schedule.  Today was totally a family day -  working in the yard, flying kites, and watching movies together. 

Such a windy day and and variable enough to challenge the best kite flyers.  Yes - we lost one temporarily - still awaiting gravity.

This evening I decided to line the Badminton court early.  It is always and ordeal to find the holes for the net since I always forget to put the tin can over the top of them each winter.  Now the lockdown at the house will provide extra sports available for family play.  I know the New York Governor recommended no contact sports -  I put badminton in that category :)

It was a great day to put the crisis out of memory -  but what day is it?

  

Truth and Consequences

Truth will reveal itself over time.  Consequently arguments are really about time - should we wait or not in our decisions today.  Probability adds into that equation and expected values.  And so the argument continues about COVID-19 and the decisions that are being made - individually, community, nationally and globally.

Questions about the utility of life and what measures we take to save lives we constantly be argued.  Close to 75% of all deaths in the USA are the result of 10 causes (top three are 50%) -  Heart Disease, Cancer, Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease, Accidents, Stroke, Alzheimer's, Diabetes,Influenza and Pneumonia, Kidney, and Suicide.

So add three of them up - Respiratory (147K), Influenza (55K) and Suicide (43K) -  245K deaths.  Now put the cost of a life into this equation - let's assume $10 million (Value of Life) per life.  So we lose $2.45 Billion a year in lives for these three conditions.  This is likely overstated since the value of one's life varies over time and the older you are the less future earned income you can produce.  But save that thought for a different blog entry.

Let's switch to USA GDP - $21.73 Trillion and growing at 2-3%.  So here is the question -   What reduction of the GDP growth rate would you accept to save 500K lives?

If GDP growth slowed to zero in 2020 (say down 2.4% -see  Coronavirus could cost the Global Economy $2.7 Trillion. Here's How) the that would be a cost of $522 Billion.  Would you accept a $522 Billion economic opportunity loss to save 500K lives?

Bloomberg  3/6/2020  Coronavirus Could Cost the Global Economy $2.7 Trillion

Back to the equation of $10 million a life -  $5 Billion for 500K lives.  Here is where the logic breaks down - let the 500K die to save the economy.  It's 10 times the return on life.

Looking at it a different way - "At least $26 Trillion in global market capitalization has been lost since February"  (Goodbye, Dow 30,000! Hello Dow 10,000?). Obviously this drop is not entirely due to COVID-19 - but assume 50% was - $13Trillion.  What would if have been worth to prevent COVID-19 from entering the USA back in February?  What would it be worth to stop COVID-19 from spreading, get back to work, and put calm back into the Stock Market?

As you can tell - I have no answers, only questions.   Our governmental officials must wrestle with these questions but ultimately they must "bet" on time - act now or wait and see.  Different states are being allowed to make their own bets.  The Federal Government provides oversight and can "Trump" their decisions.  When is the right time for that?

Truth will be known this time next year and the historic bloggers that were right will point out their prowess.  Those that we wrong will justify their logic and decision "at that time".

Everyone will claim the Truth - yet no one knows the Truth.

Boston Legal #18

Physical distancing has always been a challenge for regular Boston Legal gatherings  (two of the participants were in Florida). But with the aid of Zoom Video Conferencing, KC, JP and I met this evening to reflect on the crisis and speculate on what the future may bring.

Of course I had to show off my new green screen virtual background skills recently acquired.  Posing as Captain Kirk in the Star Fleet Enterprise was a hoot.

A wonderful distraction during a very serious crisis.  It shows the importance of letting social connections continue despite the physical restrictions. 

No food, no movie this time.  Just good conversation and virtual drinks.

Technology Comfort Food

Sequestered at home, I found a diversion that will help the social separation and tickled my technology and investment passions - Zoom Video Conferencing.  All this brings back the memories when Mom and Dad would spend time with me in the late 90's testing and experimenting with voice over internet communication - first audio and later video.

The ZM stock has Zoomed beginning in January from $68 to $165 recently due to the press and sudden need for distant communication and education.  While there are other alternatives, Zoom has benefited from its own viral explosion that started just nine days ago ($103 per share).

My first introduction to Zoom was Friday Morning Bible Study with 22 guys conferencing in the study of Deuteronomy.  Given a wide range of technology capable men, this was a great testimonial of the simplicity of the tool.

Last night, I put together an extemporaneous meeting with A.M., Ellen, Paul and myself so that I could determine whether to use it for my meetings coming up next week.  There were no real technology glitches,  and the effort to coordinate as the host was simple and intuitive. 

Tonight, I began playing with the virtual background feature.  It took Paul and a some amount of time positioning the light to get a decent picture.  I can see the challenge of lighting for portraits for photography and special effects. 

Tomorrow I'll show off at our normal monthly Vistage meeting which will now be virtual via Zoom.  However the lighting will be significantly different with sunlight streaming through the window - yet another test.

I can see why the stock is vaulting up -  I was so impressed, I immediately signed up for a year subscription $160 including tax.  And believing I needed a green screen to enhance the virtual background, I popped on to Amazon to buy that too.

Technology Gadget toys are my weakness.   But like some who are using food and other "comfort" coping mechanisms - I am not immune either.   

  

Coronvirus Lockdown Remorse

To reopen or not to reopen - that is the media question of the day.

Already doubt is setting into the minds of those taking swift lockdown measures.   It's like "Coronavirus lockdown remorse" - as cabin fever sets in and economic malaise appears on retirement savings statements.  The DNA of the USA is our risk taking entrepreneurs and they (like me) have the temptation to measure the costs and benefits of this crisis.  Then using the utilitarian philosophical model of the greatest good as measured in total utility we can make the logical Spock like decision.   But how does this apply in human life. 

Spock in his final exchange with Captain Kirk gasps  "The needs of the many......" and Kirk finishes for him "outweigh the needs of the few". 

How appropriate that J.P. and I on Saturday re-watched Michael Sandel's  first four lectures from his book "Justice - What's the Right Thing to Do?"

You can add to this philosophical debate the attempt to allocate money to those in pain and you can see why Congress can't agree on a stimulus package.  Re-read the quote as you reflect on OPEC's fight about production of oil allocated among the Saudis and Russians. Measuring utility will always create disagreements.   

How appropriate that my Bible devotional today was Matthew 16:26  "For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world and forfeits his soul?  Or what shall a man give in return for his soul?"

What happens when you reverse the quote -  "The needs of the few, outweigh the needs of the many" - suddenly you enter the world of human rights - the very soul that God created.  There is no measurement of human life or the soul - it is infinite. Nothing finite can be given for something of infinite value.

When worldly crisis and suffering tests our resolve - it is the mathematics of the many weighed against the few that will measure our humanity - and determine the return for our soul.





 

Is the Light at the......

Today as I arose to go to my office for the last time until the Ohio lockdown is lifted, I looked out our master bedroom window an saw complete blackness.   A normal morning would see the twinkling lights of Milford, Terrace Park, Newtown and the commercial areas in-between. Granted the eerie fog was cloaking the distant lighting, but I can't remember a morning when it was completely dark.

Yet the sun rose and the light emerges.  But in the tunnel of the virus contagion and economic panic each day brings more fear and darkness into our minds.  

K.C. sent me an interesting site to add to my data sources for modeling Worldometer. Finally, I discovered a chart worth pondering:

The beginning tunnel - Death rate 41.8% vs Recovery Rate 58.2  -  very scary.   Today's opening - Death rate 12.93% and Recovery rate 87.07%  - much more comforting.   But it is a moving target day by day.   The concern is the two curves are not flat yet AND..... only 32% of the known cases have outcomes.  That is because it can take 24 days (that is my guess at a number)  to determine an actual outcome.   

Now - for the higher math.  The key to any exponential chart is to view the logarithmic chart which converts an exponential chart to linear view.  Again bad news - the line is not yet straight to yield a rate of change that is consistent.  We were feeling good from 1 to 3, but now the new trend is 4. 

Each day brings new light to new data but no visibility to the future.  But as long as there is light there is hope.  

Sieze the Day - EVERYDAY MATTERS

Everyday matters in the containment of COVID-19.  As a statistician and numbers obsessed individual, I have been tracking my own spreadsheet of growth rates and predictions for the USA, Ohio and Cincinnati..  My first discovery is the problem with public data sources, timing, and the relative misinformation (or misinterpretation) provided by various sources of well intended reporters doing their own analysis (like me).

As I have previously pointed out, you should focus on what most matters - outcomes - which  means deaths and recoveries (life). The absolute number of recoveries (96,958) is increasing slowly (growth rate is 3.3%) while the absolute number of deaths (14,573) is increasing rapidly (growth rate 12.5%).  The growth rate of worldwide infections is 11% percent and based on cumulative infections to day the death percentage is 4.3%  and slowly inching up  (based on worldwide data - 340K infections and 14.6K deaths). What do all these numbers really mean?

This data analysis is a moving target. So here is a case where the input of new infections is like a fire hose filling a water bucket while the data about the outcomes of death and recovery are only a few tiny holes letting the water out of the bucket. We are trying to plug the death holes and widen the recovery holes while trying to slow the rate of water going into the bucket. Since the outcome holes are small and are slow in flow (5% or less) , the most important variable is the input - which is overwhelmingly large and fast in flow (11% Worldwide). The bucket is filling rapidly!

With that in mind, I have concentrated my thinking with the rate of input - compound growth rate of new infections in the USA and Ohio (35.9% and 45% respectively).   Next most important question is to determine when that growth rate begins to diminish - predicting the PEAK of the growth rate curve (with the only data available and suspect - Wuhan and China).

Using March 1 as a starting point in the USA with 62 cases of COVID-19, I have been tracking with various data sources reporting the cumulative number of infections in the USA , Ohio and most selfishly where I live Cincinnati.  As of 3:00pm EST the USA compound growth rate in infections is 35.9% for 21 days (3/1 - 3/22) and 45% Ohio for 7 days (3/15 - 3/22) and in Cincinnati - no growth rate yet but 4 known cases. To be fair, this analysis assumes a start date in March versus the real ground zero infection point which likely occurred sometime in mid February.

Look at these charts:

This shows why the implicit growth rate is so important and dramatic.  Why we hope that we are on a 20% curve versus a 42% curve and why we hope the curve peaks at 26 days versus 61 days.

This is why the Governors of each state in the USA (like China already has done) are rapidly ordering "draconian" measures to attempt to minimize the  absolute numbers in new infections regardless of the real compound growth rate  and the unknown death rate as a percentage of infections.  This also why EVERYDAY MATTERS!!!!

Next blog entry coming -  WHEN IS THE PEAK?  ---- pray for 26 days or less.

Death provides Life

Susan and I just finished a walk with the dogs and then a Bird Scooter cruise around the neighborhood. It is a chilly but sunny Sunday morning when most are still sleeping evidenced by the Sunday Cincinnati Enquirer and NY Times awaiting proper pickup at the each of the driveway entrances.  There will be plenty of people throughout the USA feeling a bit of cabin fever today.

R.M. emailed me a set of beautiful pictures from his walk titled "Serenity and Beauty". The two portraits that struck my eye with beautiful contrast were the black and white and full color photographs of large-leafed waterleaves sending out their basal leaves. 

Courtesy of Robert Miller - 3/19/2020 

"Our Pileated Woodpeckers continue to peck away at a large tree snag.  Death provides life. The trunks of fallen and decaying trees supply nutrients to a variety of mosses and lichens.  Cooperation reigns."  R.M portrays.

Appropriate to the crisis we are experiencing, we have the choice of viewing the events in either black and white or the full vibrancy of color that beauty reveals.  Death provides life - Cooperation reigns.

There will be more death than we desire from this virus and how well we cooperate will be a large determinant of the amount of death that will result.  This death will provide life in many mysterious ways.  New light (life) and color will emerge. Both pictures have beauty!

"Mankind can make progress in the pursuit of Truth. Mankind can also make progress in the sphere of Goodness, advancing from less to more perfect political, social, and economic institutions or arrangements.  But there is no possibility of progress in the sphere of Beauty."  - Mortimer J. Alder "Six Great Ideas".

Only the creator of Beauty can reveal the mystery in "Death provides Life".

New Normal?

Saturday starts a weekend of what may be a "New Normal" for many in the USA.  Several days ago I read the Washington Post article "Coronavirus will radically alter the US".  In that article was the following graph

 

 

Referencing the 1918 Spanish flu, we can expect a second wave of this virus and should begin now to prepare for various scenarios from the best to the worst. 

How can the Investment community prepare their expectations from the best to the worst.  Yet another chart to reference.  This appeared from M.L. (R.M.'s friend) in her firm's newsletter to her clients:

US Financial Services LLC  (973) 882 3600

It's time to take a deep breath and begin planning life in a "New Normal". Some of our leaders have been criticized for calmly saying that "this too shall pass". There is a balance of avoiding panic and preventing complacency needed as we problem solve around this virus.  As my brother (D'Lane) said to me when I was nursing my Dad back from his fall in ICU - "One step at a time".

 

My homegrown spreadsheet model of the growth numbers - World, USA, Ohio still shows greater than 30% growth with a hospitalization between 12% and 25% and no peak in sight.  We are still climbing the rollercoaster with the hope of quickly getting to the top as our fear mounts.  What a relief it will be when we start down the hill!!!

 

How appropriate we want to flatten the virus curve as it heads to the peak.  The faster we flatten it the quicker that same curve (flipped in reverse) will let the stock market bottom. 

 

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TGIF

For Wall Street Investors the adage "Thank God It's Friday" may be an understatement.  As I write this blog at 3:06 EST the DJIA has dropped 16% for the week, 33% for the month.  The market drop is better defined now as contagion - the combination of emotional fear from the economic impact of lockdowns with the Saudi/Russia Oil fight, and a sprinkle of political uncertainty. 

In this environment - cash is king, physical supplies is queen.  This is my second day locked down at the house.  Taking a walk in the neighborhood, it felt like grand central station - cars, people walking, children playing outside, even an Indian Hill Ranger patrolling and stopping to say hello.  Of course it helps that it was a sunny day with temperatures in the 50's.

Ellen cooked some brownies, Jenna was outside playing fetch with her dog Wally, Paul was working making client phone calls, and Susan attempting to collect receivables for her clients.  I sat transfixed on the red and green ups and downs of individual stocks while listening to the gloom and doom of CNBC.

Will the pressure cooker of this week's activity continue to build over the weekend?  With little routine outlets available for weekend decompression, everyone will be trying to find new activities and ways to fill their time.  What a great opportunity to re-evaluate how we spend our time together and what we can do to be emotionally supportive of each other. Like the feeling of being snowed in during a winter storm, we can practice ways to create calm and peace.  Here are some ideas:

(1) Turn off the media
(2) Read a book
(3) How about a puzzle; or art; or a family game
(4) Take a walk outside in the neighborhood
(5) Do one of those home organization projects you have put off indefinitely

Take the time to appreciate your home and feeling safe at home.