Believing Blogs

There are more reported breakthrough cases of COVID as the Delta variant explodes across the USA.  The CDC no longer tracks breakthrough cases instead focusing on breakthrough hospitalizations and deaths.  Unfortunately this data is highly dependent on state reporting with significant gaps and inconsitent reporting (including the inability to match vaccination data with other health outcome data).  

Ohio began diligently tracking and transparently reporting breakthrough cases beginning August 11, 2021.  There is a compelling difference between the fully vaccinated population vs unvaccinated/partially vaccinated for hospitalizations and deaths for about one month of data reporting.  

Total Hospitalizations 8/11/2021 to 9/20/2021 in Ohio were 6,825 with 5,968 Unvaccinated or Patiallly Vaccinated and 449 Fully Vaccinated and 408 Unknown.  

Total Deaths 8/11/2021 to 9/20/2021 in Ohio  were 685 with 637 Unvaccinated or Partially Vaccinated and 30 Fully Vaccinated and 18 Unknown.

The data above is called observational data vs what Statisticians (and the FDA) prefer which is randomized controlled clinical trials which reveal many of the hidden variables. The temptation of observational data and percentages is to attribute the dramatic difference of both hospitalizations and deaths solely on the basis  of one correlated variable -  "fully" vaccinated.  Statistically this is letting one highly correlated variabe "prove" causation.  

Let me cite an example in epidemiology -  A 1991 an observational study hailed the Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) treating symptoms associated with menopause might reduce Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) risk.  But later RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED studies (see Lawlor et. al) , including the large-scale Women's Health Initiative, revealed either a negative relationship or a statistically insignificant one, between HRT and CHD. 

What if I replaced the words .... Unvaccinated and Vaccinated with  excessive BMI (Body Mass Index) and non excessive BMI?   Would that cause you to begin to diet?  I would - what's the harm.  Thus many would take the vaccine based on the same logic.  But that does not "prove" the causation.  

Let me make one final point -   I had a mild case of COVID on December 7th 2020 that did not require hospitalization without vaccination.   Today Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan was reported to be fully vaccinated with a mild case of COVID.   "Today, I tested positive for COVID-19. While I'm currently experiencing mild symptoms, I'm grateful to have the protection of a safe and effective vaccine — and I know without it, this illness could be much, much worse," Ryan said. 

How does Ryan have 95% confidence that the vaccine he took attributed all the benefits to his mild symptoms.  His infection could have been exactly like millions of positive COVID cases prior to any vaccination available (like mine).

I'm not suggesting these vaccines are not effective.  We have Randomized Controlled clinical trial data showing efficacy.  However after unblinding these trials and relaxing the full clinical trial timelines, and follow-on studies there is chance we will never know the long term risks and rewards.   

What's the old adage with my addendum:  "Believe nothing you hear and only half of what you see"  ...... and believe the opposite of what you read in someone's blog.  

Infinite Boosters

I continue to daily post in my own personal spreadsheet COVID statistics and read as quickly as I can the various medical study reports.  Nearly all these reports are available prior to any peer review process and picked up by the media for purposes of publishing COVID - PORN.  I will self admit I am addicted to all this COVID -PORN no different from the individual red state or blue state political addict is to watching Fox News or MSNBC.  

However -  I am beginning to see some light into the reasonable arguments about natural immunity, lack of randomized trials, even principled and ethical regulators who will not be pressured, bullied, or abandon the proven methods and analysis expected by (and taught for years) scientists, academics and experts trained in the scientific principle. 

During this COVID crisis I've come to love listening/viewing  ZDogg's point of view and interviews with experts.  It has helped form my opinions about this crisis and possibly reinforced some of my objections to the vaccination arguments that are statistically in error or abused.  

The controversy about the booster shot from Pfizer shows how fear, politics, time pressure, greed, and every other human emotional response can reveal the worst in our behaviors and relationships.  The human condition is the need to be right, to be affirmed by others, and.... to prove others they are wrong.  Being Right has become the most important outcome - beyond even survival.  

Several adages come to mind -   "Don't cut your nose to spite your face"; "Whether you are Dead Right or Dead Wrong... You're still Dead";   "Add injury to insult"; "The early bird contracts the Worms"; "Add salt to the injury";  "Don't dig in your heels only to discover you can't walk".

Herd Immunity rings too closely to the term Mob Mentality.  Democracy unchecked makes the Mob "Right".  Social media manufactures what is "Heard" into the Herd.  Simpson's Paradox makes everyone statistically right.