Tuesday, December 28, 2021

Christmas 2021


Wisner Family (et al) December 2021

The circle of life surrounded the Wisner’s with plenty of change – a year of lost and found.  Joy is on the inside of suffering and finding that Joy took plenty of labor.  One Grandpa left us making some Leeway possible for another. This year we all discovered how much assisted living is necessary for each of us to both give and receive at every time in our life.  We are so grateful for the present – and the memories that are permanent.

Garen (“ ____ the Halls”)Man he looks good (in the Mirror that is), with his home maid haircuts.   Some call him a COVID Rogue with no verbal escape – can his hearing or speech be overpowered by even twin turbos?  Now a Vistage Veteran (or Hero), his entire focus has been Outback – chainsaw corridor, ____ design, pool potential, fire features, or grill gravitas.  Hands down, he travels in 4.2l uber select style.

Susan (“____ it’s Cold Outside) – Nana is now her Chosen name – Frozen in time but infinitely available for ____ tag team troubleshooting.  She makes a point of outside needles only for special stockings.  Restless in many ways, no medical mystery means much (Medicare in the making).  Susan expands her consulting business into real estate, hair styling, Euclid landscaping, J.H. Catering, and Dyson distributor. 

Ellen (“It’s the Most Wonderful ____) – It was a Rocky year for Ellen, but she Wrangled through her COVID infection.  A litter later, she vaxed up to New York City in frannic fashion.  Wasson Way welcomed her with whiskers when work waned.  Fidelity found favor in her free form phone finesse (and Flex-____).  

Jenna, Paul, & Teddy (“___ to the World”) – Now in the family business, Teddy arrived (4-13-2021) for his orientation and requires full time, stay at home, supervision 😊.   This new payroll pressure pushed Jenna to pick up Accounting versus picture projects.  Now the Aura is Teddy until the shining metal smile disappears.  Paul has the juvenile ___ in jabber, jumpy, juggling of jamboree….. and job. 

Yoshi & Cleo (“_______ Around the Christmas Tree”) – After 14 years Rambo and ______, no longer rule the house (inside that is).  Yoshi has exclusive prowl since Cleo prefers Ellen as her roommate.  Ollie roams Euclid when Wally takes vacation visits wearing out Fitch and Bella.   Without pets who could survive COVID isolation?

Travel was limited to sunny spots – Sea Island, Kiawah, and Naples (with a Dallas stop off). Now a full family of antibodies, social activities can resume.  Holiday gatherings test the paradox of friendship and love – apart or together.  Circumstances of this world interferes with the relationship glue that love provides.   Keep the Spirit of Love in your heart and let JOY make it overflow to bind us back together in 2022. 

 

                      Merry Christmas & Happy New Year

“Death leaves a heartache no one can heal; love leaves a memory no one can steal.”     Richard Puz    


 

Monday, September 20, 2021

Believing Blogs

There are more reported breakthrough cases of COVID as the Delta variant explodes across the USA.  The CDC no longer tracks breakthrough cases instead focusing on breakthrough hospitalizations and deaths.  Unfortunately this data is highly dependent on state reporting with significant gaps and inconsitent reporting (including the inability to match vaccination data with other health outcome data).  

Ohio began diligently tracking and transparently reporting breakthrough cases beginning August 11, 2021.  There is a compelling difference between the fully vaccinated population vs unvaccinated/partially vaccinated for hospitalizations and deaths for about one month of data reporting.  

Total Hospitalizations 8/11/2021 to 9/20/2021 in Ohio were 6,825 with 5,968 Unvaccinated or Patiallly Vaccinated and 449 Fully Vaccinated and 408 Unknown.  

Total Deaths 8/11/2021 to 9/20/2021 in Ohio  were 685 with 637 Unvaccinated or Partially Vaccinated and 30 Fully Vaccinated and 18 Unknown.

The data above is called observational data vs what Statisticians (and the FDA) prefer which is randomized controlled clinical trials which reveal many of the hidden variables. The temptation of observational data and percentages is to attribute the dramatic difference of both hospitalizations and deaths solely on the basis  of one correlated variable -  "fully" vaccinated.  Statistically this is letting one highly correlated variabe "prove" causation.  

Let me cite an example in epidemiology -  A 1991 an observational study hailed the Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) treating symptoms associated with menopause might reduce Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) risk.  But later RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED studies (see Lawlor et. al) , including the large-scale Women's Health Initiative, revealed either a negative relationship or a statistically insignificant one, between HRT and CHD. 

What if I replaced the words .... Unvaccinated and Vaccinated with  excessive BMI (Body Mass Index) and non excessive BMI?   Would that cause you to begin to diet?  I would - what's the harm.  Thus many would take the vaccine based on the same logic.  But that does not "prove" the causation.  

Let me make one final point -   I had a mild case of COVID on December 7th 2020 that did not require hospitalization without vaccination.   Today Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan was reported to be fully vaccinated with a mild case of COVID.   "Today, I tested positive for COVID-19. While I'm currently experiencing mild symptoms, I'm grateful to have the protection of a safe and effective vaccine — and I know without it, this illness could be much, much worse," Ryan said. 

How does Ryan have 95% confidence that the vaccine he took attributed all the benefits to his mild symptoms.  His infection could have been exactly like millions of positive COVID cases prior to any vaccination available (like mine).

I'm not suggesting these vaccines are not effective.  We have Randomized Controlled clinical trial data showing efficacy.  However after unblinding these trials and relaxing the full clinical trial timelines, and follow-on studies there is chance we will never know the long term risks and rewards.   

What's the old adage with my addendum:  "Believe nothing you hear and only half of what you see"  ...... and believe the opposite of what you read in someone's blog.  

Saturday, September 18, 2021

Infinite Boosters

I continue to daily post in my own personal spreadsheet COVID statistics and read as quickly as I can the various medical study reports.  Nearly all these reports are available prior to any peer review process and picked up by the media for purposes of publishing COVID - PORN.  I will self admit I am addicted to all this COVID -PORN no different from the individual red state or blue state political addict is to watching Fox News or MSNBC.  

However -  I am beginning to see some light into the reasonable arguments about natural immunity, lack of randomized trials, even principled and ethical regulators who will not be pressured, bullied, or abandon the proven methods and analysis expected by (and taught for years) scientists, academics and experts trained in the scientific principle. 

During this COVID crisis I've come to love listening/viewing  ZDogg's point of view and interviews with experts.  It has helped form my opinions about this crisis and possibly reinforced some of my objections to the vaccination arguments that are statistically in error or abused.  

The controversy about the booster shot from Pfizer shows how fear, politics, time pressure, greed, and every other human emotional response can reveal the worst in our behaviors and relationships.  The human condition is the need to be right, to be affirmed by others, and.... to prove others they are wrong.  Being Right has become the most important outcome - beyond even survival.  

Several adages come to mind -   "Don't cut your nose to spite your face"; "Whether you are Dead Right or Dead Wrong... You're still Dead";   "Add injury to insult"; "The early bird contracts the Worms"; "Add salt to the injury";  "Don't dig in your heels only to discover you can't walk".

Herd Immunity rings too closely to the term Mob Mentality.  Democracy unchecked makes the Mob "Right".  Social media manufactures what is "Heard" into the Herd.  Simpson's Paradox makes everyone statistically right.










Saturday, August 21, 2021

Nevermind the Time

I thought 2020 was a year worth forgetting but eight months into 2021 this year has created the most emotional volatility.  On the upside - the birth of my first Grandson (Teddy Lee), Ellen's graduation and employment with Fidelity Investments and now the introduction of two new kittens - Yoda and Yoshi.  Sadly this year, Rambo and Rocky died (presumably of old age ailments and disease).  With Ellen's new kitten Cleo we have saved three kittens from their abandonment.  

Watching Teddy develop alongside kittens is an interesting contrast.  Yet the rapid speed shows the exponential power of growth (size, capabilities etc.).  Amid the COVID-19 deaths (now over 644K in USA) the perpetual machine of new life overpowers the sorrow of death.  This spiritual mystery (for some) just doesn't provide enough hope to overshadow the temptational cries of armegedon (e.g. Climate Crisis, Pandemic Fear, Economic Meltdown, Poverty and Starvation, Water Shortage, and yes.... even asteroid collision.  All worries related to time.

Drilled into my head constantly was my Mother's mantra of the power of positive thinking - the hopeful outlook of human improvement (time on this earth) and spiritual eternity (time outside this earth). 

At 4:45 am Friday driving Ellen to the airport, I listened to NPR's rebroadcast of BBC  World Service - Business Daily "Rethinking Time" .

Professor Adrian Bejan of Duke University states "Time is a human perception.  We feel the passing of time so there is a clock time that brings everyone together on this planet and then there is a mind time which is personal."  Mind time is like clicks of the eye - or frames in a movie reflecting change.  "Time is the name for the perception of change."   The time (clock time) from morning to night is fixed, yet the number of clicks (infant or adult) of mind time is variable by individual.  As we get older the number of clicks decreases (computer clicks too 😁).  

There are 72 waking non working hours  (clock time) available (assuming 40 hour work week and 8 hours of sleep) equally to each of us.  How are each of us mindful about these clock time hours?   How are each of us mindful about the click time available within that clock time?  

Mind what you look at and how you look at it. Nevermind the time - change your perceptions. 



Wednesday, August 11, 2021

Growing Data Awareness

One valuable and sacred principle of American freedom is the ring of truth that inevitably rises from any cloaking of information - the Pentagon Papers, Vietnam Causulties, Tobacco Cancer Data.... the list goes on  (10 Cover-ups that Just Made Things Worse). 

A.S. sent me an email suggesting I watch a youtube presentation from Dr. Dan Stock to the Mt. Vernon School Board last night.  By 9:00am this morning the Youtube feed had been removed.

Naturally I decided to look into the guidelines for this removal from a public School Board Meeting. The Youtube specific policy on COVID-19 can be found at this link:  COVID-19 Medical Misinformation Policy

YouTube doesn't allow content that spreads medical misinformation that contradicts local health authorities’ or the World Health Organization’s (WHO) medical information about COVID-19. This is limited to content that contradicts WHO or local health authorities’ guidance on:

  • Treatment 
  • Prevention
  • Diagnosis
  • Transmission
  • Social distancing and self isolation guidelines
  • The existence of COVID-19

Note: YouTube’s policies on COVID-19 are subject to change in response to changes to global or local health authorities’ guidance on the virus. This policy was published on May 20, 2020. 

Luckily the internet provides a vehicle for 1st Amendment Rights - Freedom of Speech and I was able to find the transcript of Dr. Dan Stock's address. Clearly this (among others) statement did him in:

"And you can’t prevent it with a vaccine because they don’t do the very thing you’re wanting them to do, and you will be chasing this the remainder of your life until you recognize that the Center for Disease Control, and the Indiana State Board of Health, are giving you very bad scientific guidance" 

One side claims conspiracy theories by kooks, the other side claims government propoganda and each attempts to gain public access and the podium.  

My bully pulpit is about the data and continues to be only that in my poorly written blogs (as pointed out by T.Mc.).  Obviously my bias (self proclaimed) is that I previously had COVID-19 (with documented Antibodies) and feel no rush to become vaccinated.  

Recently I became aware of Mass. Dept of Health statistics.  Ignoring the CDC's advice to not count breakthrough cases (and only hospitalizations and deaths) they are publishing (a bit hard to find though) data on Breakthroughs cases in addition to hospitalizations and deaths.


I can quibble with their percentage calculation as too early to be significant (it's like saying in March 31of 2020 there were only 3,889 deaths in the USA from COVID-19 with a population of 332 million - .001%).  I think both percentages are meaningless. 

However - give Mass Dept of Health credit for maintaining history.  On May 24 there were 3.343 Breathtrough cases with 2.9 million fully vaccinated; On 7/31 there were 7,737 Breakthrough Cases and on 8/7 there were 9,969 Breakthrough cases with 4.3 million fully vaccinated.  You can now compute the compounded daily growth rate of  Breakthrough infections in Mass.  for the fully vaccinated.  Oh heck -  I'll do it for you -  It is a 1.47% Daily Compound Growth Rate since May 24 and the last week was a 3.69% Daily Compound Growth Rate from 7/31 to 8/7.   

NOTE:   The COMPOUND DAILY GROWTH RATE OF COVID-19 POSITIVE CASES (USA) FROM 1/20/2020 to 8/11/2021 is ....... wait for it .........3.11%

T. Mc. (also willing to crosscheck my logic and play devils advocate) just sent me an email from a reliable left bias source The Guardian to the question:  Why isn’t the US tracking ‘breakthrough’ Covid cases?

The response he received from Nao Yachot (Guardian US Membership Editor) is too long to publish in this blog,  Here is a snipet:  

With Delta come many questions that Guardian reporters have been pursuing as hospitals in the deep south run out of ICU beds, mayors and governors reintroduce restrictions and health professionals report increased hospitalization of children with severe cases. Among the questions we are asking:

  • How many vaccinated people are getting infected with so-called “breakthrough” Covid cases?
  • Are children at particular risk as the school year begins?
  • Can people who have been vaccinated still get long Covid?

Answering some of these questions is made tricky by the fact that the US has no centralized system for collecting information on breakthrough cases – because the CDC stopped tracking those cases earlier this year, and is now only collecting data on breakthrough cases that lead to hospitalization or death. In an op-ed we recently published, science writer Yasmin Tayag laments this dearth of information, which she says limits our ability to make informed decisions.

The cry of Paul Revere for data will be heard.....  time and data freedom will ring the truth.  Let both the right and left cry out - uncensored. 

Monday, August 9, 2021

Citizen Data Scientists

A. S. who has put up with my constant emails and has been my outlet for my statistical skepticism sent me an interesting story on how the CDC came to study the Provincetown Mass. COVID cluster infection of the fully vaccinated.  In fact Michael Donnelly launched his own COVIDoutlook.info website.  

Now I don't feel so bad about the time I daily spend updating my own COVID Data Model Spreadsheet and blogging about the misinformation or spin doctoring statistics.  I just finished reading the book "Extra Life: A  Short History of Living Longer"  by Steven Johnson (also a CET documentary). In 1866 the Citizen Data Scientist -William Farr discovers the Cholera outbreak in London is due to one infected water source and proves the transmission method.  His charts are worthy of framing. 


When the government, institutions, media and mob attempt to discredit the individual voices skeptics as crazy misinformation pundits we discourage the very citizenship voice of discovery needed to improve the science.




Tuesday, August 3, 2021

Vaccination from Fear

 In my search for "real" statistics about Delta Variant hospitalizations ..... finally some actual investigative report to be applauded.  You could argue the survey is statistically not well done but ..... some data is better than no data.

ABC News contacted 50 hospitals in 17 states, and asked them to share data on their ICU wards' current COVID-19 patients, including their vaccination status. In the surveyed hospitals, ABC News found that the overwhelming majority of COVID-19 patients currently being treated in ICUs were unvaccinated.

Of the 271 total COVID patients in the surveyed ICUs, 255 patients, or approximately 94%, were unvaccinated against COVID-19 in ABC News' snapshot in time.

The article also cites Alabama's Department of Health Statistics on hospitalizations of vaccinated vs unvaccinated (94%) but provides no link to verify (and a quick search yielded nothing).   I do like Alabama's summary which includes Antibody results.  

Data and Surveillance | Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) (alabamapublichealth.gov)
The only thing I could find is yet another undocumented survey - yet another example of viral media news:

In a recent survey of Alabama's hospitals, 94% of current COVID-19 positive patients were unvaccinated, Don Williamson, president of the Alabama Hospital Association, told ABC News in a statement.

The reality of our decision making process is that we are biased to the very ancillary data sources of our personal network and news we read weighed against our own personal evaluation of risk and rewards.  I believe mortality emotional risk grows with age (the older you are the fear of death may increase).  There is only one vaccine (although tests are not complete) that can reduce the fear of mortality (across all circumstances).   I'll let you guess what that is.

Monday, August 2, 2021

Flying Blind

The Delta Variant is shaking up the data tree.  "New Science" is the latest terminology.  Prior to this I guess we were trusting the "Old Science".  The challenge for a data hungry person like me is the constant disappointment.   Florida as an example -   they stopped doing a daily COVID-19 dashboard preferring to defer to the CDC stating they send the data to them daily.   Unfortuanately clicking on the state of Florida sends me right back to the Florida Department of Health -  an infinite non data loop.

One could argue that weekly data is sufficient and 7 day moving averages are better statistical viewing and takes some of the "data noise" out of the clamor.  J.D. gave an interesting perspective of why Israel, England and Canada might have better and more transparent data.   National Health Care (Centralized) provides a greater and more standardized way of capturing and accumulating data.  So my criticism of the CDC should be tempered.   Fair Point!

Since deaths (an hospitalizations) have dropped dramatically I discovered some great interactive data tools and visualization on the CDC Data Tracker site.

I thought it would be interesting to visualize the deaths supperimposed on the total vaccines administered.  Looking at this graph in simple terms and you would say WOW .... this vaccine caused the dramatic fall in deaths!!!   And that is exactly as the media is reporting.  The clinical trials are "proven" out in the population as a whole.But


The dates from January 7, 2021 to January 13, 2021 had several peaks -  
Daily Deaths peaked 4,154 on 1/13/21
7 Day Average Deaths  3,626  on 1/13/21
New Positive Cases  295,881 on 1/7/21
7 Day Average Cases 253,378 on 1/11/21
Here are the cumulative numbers by 1/13/21
Total Positive Cases - 23,502,741
Total Deaths - 413,899
Total Vaccines Administered (1 or 2 shots)  - 15,167,141

BUT WAIT.....   Look at this chart - it looks similar!

Let's call the new yellow line in this chart "the ultimate vaccine".  It coincidentally crosses very near the upper chart - on January 25, 2021.

You ask - what is that "ultimate vaccine"  the one that has also caused the dramatic reduction in deaths?

The yellow line is the cumulative positive cases of COVID-19 - 25,170,494 survivors - presumably with ANTIBODIES.  

Use a multiple of asympotmatic cases of 3-5 and you get 75 to 125 million people with antibodies.  I can find no data that "proves" immunity and/or no further transmission but there may be a high probability that is also why cases of Alpha Variant were rapidly decreasing also.

What is my point?    We have lost control!  There are no control cases.  We are using the unvaccinated (which includes survivors with antibodies) as a improper control group compared to the vaccinated (which also includes survivors with antibodies).  In fact the clinical trials were unblinded without proper control groups to measure going forward.

Now the Delta Variant and others appear - no control there either.  We are "flying blind" in a vaccine airplane mixed passengers that we have no clue about their immunity or antibodies.   


Addendum:   While I'm critical of the State of Florida for ceasing the daily data.  I was humbled to see that state had weekly Serology Data (as of May 31).   Why did this stop?



Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Percentage Wars - Unconvincing

 The misuse of data and simple percentages continues - this time on the side of the immunity fight of COVID survivors.  The trouble is that it takes getting data from other countries to even address the truth about immunity (the CDC does not even capture cases by previous infection).




Here is the article from Israel -  "Natural infection vs vaccination:  Which gives more protection?"

Notice the same error of oranges to apples comparison:   

"With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already infected with COVID".

"By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection, with over 3,000 of the 5,193,499, or 0.0578%, of Israelis who were vaccinated getting infected in the latest wave."

Using a denominator of all known positive cases since COVID inception and a numerator of vaccinations that started nearly a year later is just plainly errant!  Can you see the other error?

How can my analysis be so simple and yet unconvincing :)

"According to a report by Channel 13, the disparity has confounded – and divided – Health Ministry experts, with some saying the data proves the higher level of immunity provided by natural infection versus vaccination, while others remained unconvinced."

It's no wonder confusion continues.

Monday, July 19, 2021

Spinning the Statistics - Moving Targets

When you calculate a percentage the denominator is a critical variable.  If you want a small percentage just inflate the denominator toward infinity.  Consequently when you want the vaccine to be 99.99% effective just increase your timeline, enlarge your population comparison base and restrict your numerator to as small a number as possible.   Let me give you and example of playing with the timeframe:

The definition of  "fully vaccinated"  is 14 days from the second shot.  Vaccinations didn't start until 12/14/2020 with only 541individuals with the second shot.  The USA surpassed a million people with the second shot on 1/11/2021 - 1,317,291.   But that number is not lagged by the 14 day rule.  On 1/11/2021 only 8,515 individuals would have had their second shot for 14 days. 

So let's say one of the two shot vaccinated individuals contracted COVID and died on 1/11/2021.  The 14 day rule eliminated 1,308,776 in process vaccinated individuals from consideration in the percentage calculation. It is highly probable that this two shot vaccinated individuals would be considered "unvaccinated".  

Now if you start counting anything (cases, hospitalizations, deaths) as of 12/14/2020 it should be evident you denominator is very large by 1/11/2021 and yet the "fully vaccinated" population is only 8,515 available to contract COVID, get hospitalized, and if unlucky tragically die.   Also remember the death rate lags any positive test by as much as 3 weeks or more. 

So lets say one of the 8,515 individuals tested positive for COVID-19 on 1/11/2021.  If that person died three weeks later it would be 2/1/2021.  Have you "stopped" the denominator from growing from the unvaccinated and the partially vaccinated for proper comparison during that three weeks?

So let's use a real live example - New York City.  

 

Do you see the problem?   The denominator is as big as possible and the numerator (by definition) is as small as possible.  

I can make the vaccine "work" at nearly 100% efficacy by just changing my definition of "fully vaccinated" from14 days to 60 days (note the vaccine has only been administered for about 218 days).   

What is the lesson here.   When you have no control group you are dealing with moving targets.

Addendum 10:49am  -  Another variables to consider.  (1) % of population with antibodies (i.e. symptomatic and asymptomatic survivors).  (2) % of population unavailable to be vaccinated  


Sunday, July 18, 2021

Tweet it Through the Grapevine

 I continue to search diligently for data to support this claim -  'Pandemic of the Unvaccinated': CDC Chief Says 97% of US Hospitalizations Didn't Get COVID-19 Shots.   from the Sputnik News -  by Morgan Artyukhina.

The CDC Chief did say... "This is BECOMING thePandemic of the Unvaccinated"  but what about the 97% statistic about hospitalizations?????

Naturally I searched the body of this article for hyperlinks to the data. only to discover it was taken froma young recent graduate of the University of Maryland  who reported in the Baltimore Sun:  "Of the nearly 100 people who died of COVID-19 in Maryland last month, all were not vaccinated against the disease, state health officials say.  In addition, 95% of newly infected people in Maryland and 93% of those requiring hospitalization were unvaccinated, according to a tweet from Mike Ricci, spokesman fro Gov. Larry Hogan."  

So where is the 97%?????  And is this where we get acurate data .... according to a tweet????  

Now the Surgeon General is worried about the mis-information with a 22 page report casting doubt upon the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine. But what about the reverse - the unsubstantiated statistics about death and hospitalizations in context of the vaccine virallly reported through various news organizations on-line publishing.   

I have searched the CDC traking database for any statistics regarding cases, hospitalizations and deaths for Covid suvivors, unvacinnated individuals, those with antibodies, and vaccinnated (by vaccine type).  I can find nothing beyond early studies of healthcare workers.  

I could find no where that the CDC Chief actually said 97% of US Hospitalizations didn't get COVID-19 shots.  And..... a young journalist decides to report a tweeted statistic of 95% with no further research.  And.... what precise reporting "nearly 100 people who died"   - was it 100 or not?  Was it 99 or 98 let's not round the numbers. And then another journalist uses the Baltimore Sun article and changes the statistic to 97%.  


What we have here is "Grapevine" tweet based reporting with editorial license in rounding.  


Addendum  1:59pm:   I have found a case of accurate and decent reporting around the statistic 97%.  Published in the Seattle Times - June 5th 2021 "The 'two societies': 97% of new COVID cases are among people who haven't gotten the shots" reported by Danny Westneat.  They actually crossreferenced cases with vaccination databases.  However there is a slight flaw in analysis since "fully vaccinated (14 days after second shot) could be a stringent criteria and it wasn't until May 15th the vaccine was available for anyone under 16 (consequently the data was not recast for the correct population age demographic). 

Addendum #2 2:44pm  Also remember - thie Seattle Times article is positive COVID-19 cases - not hospitalizations or deaths.  Nor would it (or could it) apply to asymptomatic cases.  Also could vaccinated population do more masking, social distancing, generally be more healthy (socially economically priviledged ) , and health conscious?  

Addendum #3  2:56pm   Look carefully at the prior blog and UK data.   Of the 53K "linked" positive Delta Variant Cases - 4,087 were vaccinated "fully" which is 7.69% of the positive cases (or 92.3% of new cases were not "fully vaccinated").   Yet....  there were 20 vaccinated of the 73 total deaths --- 35.6% of the deaths were vaccinated individuals.    Hmmm........ Which statistic do you think they are reporting.

Addendum #4 6:15pn   Just read a Newsweek/MSN  report stating:  " On Sunday, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy said that nearly all of COVID-19 deaths - or 99.5 percent - are happening among unvaccinated people."  Where is the data for that statistic?  Once again a quote from the Surgeon General with no checking - no supporting data.  Where is the investigating journalism in that?

Thursday, July 15, 2021

CDC - Complacent Data Censorship

 The Vaccine news war wages on.  One side accuses the other of data manipulation, social media lies, and fear mongering. Yet amid all of that misinformation on both sides there is little attempt to link to the actual data or report used for numbers and/or percentages.  PHE (Public Health England), once again, shows how more sophisticated their data collection and analysis is over the CDC (United States Center for Disease Control).   A recent report - SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England  Technical briefing 16 (June 18, 2021)  provides the very data that health care providers and individuals could use to evaluate their risk and decisions concerning COVID-19 and the various variants.

Here is a table that I've been searching for, requesting from the CDC, and can never find.

Math does not have to be your strong suit to perform you own calculations - percentages.  One thing I can criticize is not seeing the demographic data (age, sex, race etc.) although the data set is fairly small.  I suspect this is available on the website and would answer the question younger people are struggling with regarding vaccination.

Now .... .here is my personal spin (and opinion).   I believe (and yes I don't have data to support it) that the treatment for COVID and it's variants has been steadily improving.  I also believe that the natural immunity (herd immunity) is much greater in the USA than estimated (even before the mass EUA vaccination program).  

This fall/winter we will spike again but the rate of hospitalization and deaths will begin to look more and more like the common flu.  

A real bonus for the "data diggers" is to download the report link above and read the section on "Survelliance of Reinfections"  (AND WHY DOESN'T THE CDC MONITOR THAT!!)

Maybe we should rename the CDC -  Complacent Data Censorship  

    



Sunday, July 11, 2021

Boiling Blood

It is inexcuseable that the CDC and state reporting are either not collecting or reporting simple data points concerning positve COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths for the various vaccines, unvaccinated and previous COVID-19 infections.  These are the very data points that would support conjectures about efficacy, sustainable immunity, and long-term consequences of each.

Additionally determining the success of treatment regardless of infection would determine if Emergency Use Authorization of a rapidly tested and implemented vaccine is still appropriate (along with the growing pressure to promote a third booster).  

The lack of data concerning antibody prevelance is also a missing data point.  Looking at the serology data collected by the CDC, it is strange the blood donation data ceases to be reported after February 2021 (note it says updated as of 6/21/2021).

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#nationwide-blood-donor-seroprevalence


As a frequent blood donor myself, this data could also be sorted by those vaccinated, unvaccinated and previous Covid-19 infections. I have had positive antibodies since January 13, 2021 demonstrating that even a weak Covid-19 infection yields seven months of antibody protection. 

What disturbs me is the growing media pressure aimed at the unvaccinated population implicating them as the cause of variants, carriers of infection (symptomatic or asymptomatic) - both domestic and international (when in fact the vaccine is unavailable to many countries).  There is no reporting about immunity or asymptomatic antibodies prevelant in the population.

There is no pressure on the pharmecutical companies to continue clinical testing of the original vaccines for verification of efficacy and long term implications (note the EAU clinical trials were unblinded).   In a rush to report, study after study of small sample size, non controlled, and statistically invalid studies are being reported (both pro and con) about various conditions (long haul effects, vaccine reactions, variant variables, etc.). 

Bottom Line -  It boils my blood :)

Addendum 7/26/2021:   I just noticed an interesting May 19,2021  FDA safety communication " Antibldy Testing is not Currently recommended to assess Immunity after COVID-19 Vaccination"  

"While a positive antibody test result can be used to help identify people who may have had a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, more research is needed in people who have received a COVID-19 vaccination."

So .... if you can't trust antibody tests ..... what can you trust for determining any form of immunity or protection from infection?  

FDA in Brief :  FDA Advises Against Use of SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Test Results to Evaluate Immunity or Protection from COVID-19, Including after Vaccination 

In Vitro Diagnostics EUAs - Serology and Other Adaptive Immune Response Tests for SARS- CoV-2

Antibody (Serology) Testing for COVID-19: Information for Patients and Consumers 

Interim Guidelines for COVID-19 Antibody Testing   (From the CDC)


Friday, May 28, 2021

The Grandfather Club

 What a inexcusable oversight -  the birth of Theodore Lee Robinson in April.  This inducted me into the Grandparents Club and reminded me of A.M.'s wisdom 10+ years ago.   I was in my 50's and developing my "Decade Planning Document" along with a Vistage Presentation on Longevity.   Since my timeline of family life events was about 10 years behind A.M. and others, I asked the question -"What one lesson (words of wisdom) of your last decade would you share for me as I embark into my 60's?    I remember A.M.'s response distinctly:  "I totally underestimated the Grandfather thing!".  

My first unsupervised babysitting of Teddy was Wednesday evening as Paul was subbing for me at tennis.  The memories caring for Jenna and Ellen as infants flooded into my mind as I was revisiting the football hold, the diaper techniques, burping, rocking and keeping calm in the face of crying.  The hour and half reminded me of how exhausting newborn's can be.   The difference as a Grandfather - the handoff to the Mom :)

This weekend I will miss the Wells Family Reunion which yearly honors the generations.  Dad and Aunt Revae (now 105) will be spotlighted.  The memories of prior generations are the foundations for the new generation to utilize in stewarding forward.  Teddy now enters the world with hope and joy.  The Grandfather club starts the process of passing the memory baton.



Thursday, May 27, 2021

Measuring Belief

 Susan just got her blood test back indicating "Reactive" Antibodies - translated by the Nurse Practioner that she has a positive test showing proof of antibodies.  Yet at no time did Susan exhibit symptoms of COVID-19 and in fact was tested at least twice for COVID-19 that was negative. These facts would point to an example of an asymptomatic individual not counted in the almost 34 million USA COVID-19 positive cases.  

Statistically not sound but worthy of note is that in my family nucleus of now six people with constant contact -  two had symptomatic COVID, one asymptomatic,  and three unknowns.  Using normal media extrapolation that would say 50% of the population has been infected with three still unknown.  So it would be natural that COVID cases diminishing.  Do you get the point?

Numbers (single integer series) are a strange thing as time and growth occur.  Fractions and percentages are even more complicated when the numerator and denominator change daily.  

When the skeptics wanted to prove that COVID-19 was no worse than the flu, they used a multiple of 10 times the positive cases for the denominator using sample sizes like my example above.  When various countries (e.g. Sweden, India) declared "victory" on herd immunity, they used small samples and extrapolated that to the population as a whole.   Yet all these analysis were proved in error.  

So declaring victory about the efficacy of a vaccine less than 150 days into implementation in a population base of 34 million known previously infected COVID 19 individuals (likely understated by a multiple of 2-4 times) is a guess without measuring COVID positive cases in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.

So why does the CDC stop measuring this simple statistic?  Why does the CDC continue to promote a voluntary database of incidents?  Why does the CDC re-set the breakthrough cases on May 1 of only hospitalizations and deaths?  Why does the CDC only measure breakthrough cases of 14 days after the fully vaccinated?  Why does the CDC not measure COVID cases of previously infected individuals?  Why does the medical community insist on vaccination of individuals with antibodies and/or not test for antibodies prior to vaccination?

I have a new term for this - measure only what you believe.   Something the religious community is criticized for by the materialistic community.  


 

Monday, May 10, 2021

Vaccine Vicissitudes

 My blood started to boil this morning as I continue to read the cascading avalanche of publicity encouraging vaccination - every age, every individual, the entire world.  The fact the vaccinations are authorized only under emergency use has conveniently been forgotten.   The belief of the vaccination effectiveness is justified with any numbers that anyone wants to use.

I personally believe Vitamin C helps prevent the common cold.   Yet the efficacy and effectiveness is still unproven.   The same could be said of this vaccination.   Yet it is being reported as fact.

Here is an article from the Detroit Free Press: "Why people who have contracted COVID-19 don't count toward herd immunity" 

“Contracting COVID does not create the kind of immunity we’re looking for,” Ingham County Health Officer Linda Vail said.

A county official is now the epidemiological expert on herd immunity!   Apparently she hasn't read the non peer reviewed medical study:  

SARS-CoV-2 antibodies remain detectable 12 months after infection and antibody  magnitude is associated with age and COVID-19 severity

But this lack of balanced reporting might be excused except as each state begins to report "Breakthrough Cases" there is a constant rush to judgement of effectiveness of vaccination.

Here's a good example -  Beacon Falls, Connecticut - Citizens News  May 10, 2021  - "State reports COVID cases, deaths among fully vaccinated people"   .   242 people are Breakthrough Cases (14 days after fully vaccinated) among 1.4 fully immunized state residents (presumably 14 days after immunization).  

“The main takeaway is that COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective and cases of infection after a person is fully vaccinated are very rare,” said Dr. Deidre Gifford, the acting DPH commissioner.

It could be this conclusion is 100% correct - infections is very rare after vaccination.  But this data does not prove that conclusion.   But you say ......   0.1%  (242 divided by 1.4 million) is proof enough isn't it?

NO!  Now you ask WHY NOT?

(1) The "fully immunized" population is suspect and likely overstated. Has the 14 days passed?  Did anyone get COVID within the 21 -28 two dose inoculation?

(2) How many non tested, non hospitalized immunized people contract COVID-19 and did not report it?

(3) How does this compare to the non immunized population in the early days of COVID-19 when no vaccination was required?  To make the point there were only 213 people with COVID on 3/08/2020 out of 330 million.

(4) Do the lifestyles of immunized patients mirror the lifestyles of the non immunized?  Maybe that population is more cautious and less susceptible to infection regardless of vaccination.

(5) Not even 1 million had been fully vaccinated in the USA by 1/10/2021) - that is over a year after COVID-19 appeared.   By 1/10/2021 22.9 million positive cases had been reported in USA.  Using even a low multiple of 2 times that would be about 46 million people had already gotten COVID-19 (13.8% of the population).  The probability of contracting COVID for the remaining 286 million has changed (vaccinated or not). 

(6) No one knows what % is needed for "herd immunity"

(7) If you used the "fully immunized" group only as your measure.  The chance of COVID-19 infection has only run it's course for 4 months.  At four months there were only 1 million positive cases of COVID-19 in 2020 out of a population of 332 million.  That percent is 0.3%.  You wouldn't report back then that "cases are very rare".


So if I was a new parent (my new Grandparent status does not count) with young children ages 4-12 would I vaccinate my child?    

Not yet!



Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Vaccination Variables

 It's time for me to weigh in on vaccination hesitancy.  

First disclaimers....   I have been researching risks and rewards of vaccination only recently and I am clearly not an epidemiologist  or  vaccination expert. I have a bias related to Jenna's diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes (Jan 2019) directly after a bad reaction to a required flu shot (all nurses were encouraged/required to get a flu shot) in addition to the fact I have never had a flu shot myself. Also I tend to be the equivalent of a Christian Scientist that minimizes all drugs and chemicals in my body.  However I tend to have a philosophy of utilitarianism in evaluating cost/benefits in moral behavior.  I have had COVID-19 (a mild case 12/7/2020) and survived with proof of the antibodies in my blood.  I have not had any direct family members who have died as a result of COVID-19 (although you could say my Dad's passing might be indirectly related). I'm a rusty statistician and have strong opinions about proper statistical analysis, terms and protocol.  I have not received the vaccination and have purposely deferred the decision with the expectation (maybe misguided) that my antibodies give me the necessary protection short tern against reinfection with the variants.  

Now to the point -  I believe the "herd effect" promotion of vaccination is driving momentum to rush to judgement about it's efficacy.   The general population (including the media) misunderstanding of efficacy and effectiveness (along with the fear both serious illness and/or death) has driven the herd to rapidly jump to vaccination as the defacto solution to the pandemic.  Finally - as a rusty statistician - I am appalled by the data not being collected; the lack of control groups; and the rush to judgement on non peer reviewed, small sample size, laboratory based theories, that are being revealed as science proven population truths.  There are long term risks that we can't predict - unknown costs that only time will reveal. 

Weighing this viewpoint against the altruistic "duty" to others becomes the central emotional variable that divides the vaccinated from the unvaccinated (in addition to each individual's self fear of getting the virus).  It is that moral dilemma  that I have studied rigorously for the past 10 years.  My best recommendation is to read  "Justice - What's the Right Thing to Do" or listen to Sandel's Harvard Lectures.  

The press, government (CDC), and vaccinated group would aspire to the practical viewpoint that the few casualties associated with the vaccine over-ride the benefits for the entire population (while justifying that -as and example- the blood clots are not any more than what is experienced in the pre vaccination world).  This says a few deaths are worth "saving" the many.  Yet this same logic could be applied in the macro view - 570K deaths for the 330M affected by non medical interventions (economic shutdown; educational casualties; etc. etc.).  Using numbers (particularly percentages) and elapsed time are the fundamental ways to erroneously argue the philosophy. 

But numbers don't count in the emotional world of individual decision making.  Reason and logic will never trump the spirit and soul inside.  It takes a higher order of philosophy to determine the truth.  It takes looking into the heart to understand motive and action.   

"Inside the envelope of patience there are many letters of forgiveness."   Time is the currency of patience.  COVID has been with us well over 500 days and will likely be with us permanently.  There is much we don't know but we do not have to fear the unknown. 


  



 

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

The Data Tells Me So

 As a closet (and old) Statistician, I am very disturbed about the data analysis going on around COVID-19 - the clinical trials, the data reported about breakthrough cases, the death data, hospitalizations, comorbidity, .. etc. etc.  And the old adage "The Devil is in the Detail" totally applies.   

Add to this Devil Data Detail problem is the Media Mania Mega horn creating confirming bias in the face of the large spectrum of human fear, uncertainty and doubt.  Then you have the desire to correlate political views into a divisive intellectual divide of blaming, shaming, and defaming each other.  

I recognize this is a global moving target of information, science, and parity.  Another global humanity test on the scale of World War survival impact.  How we respond globally and not nationally will be how we measure success.   India (who declared premature victory) and Brazil (who declared premature fearlessness) are now suffering.  The USA, UK and Israel now cautiously tempted to forecast freedom are in danger of their own nationalistic premature conclusions of what we believe "the science tells us".

Unfortunately the data is still in process.   150 million known (or estimated) positive COVID-19 cases and 3.157 million deaths is just a drop in the bucket of an estimated world population of 7.86 Billion (as of 4pm EST). This is still considered a small sample size to Statisticians.   

As a confirmed skeptic, the data I look at only provides "recent-cy bias" (if that's a word) for those declaring victory.  The only certainty I claim is that the healthcare science knows .... what it knows but doesn't know (or publish) what it doesn't know.   The famous Donald Rumsfeld quote that set the reporters into paradoxical philosophy - "There are Known Knowns".  

Please don't tell me - "The Science Tells Me So"; or "The Data Tells Me So";  


Wednesday, April 21, 2021

Chainsaw Grieving and Grace

It all started (November 2020) with an idea from the Book Club group after we read "Peace is Every Step: The Path of Mindfulness in Everyday Life  by Thich Nhat Hanh.  That idea converged with K.C.'s announcement that he had a new gadget - a battery operated chainsaw.  Putting those two "nudges" together, I decided to create a "Prayer Path" in our backyard forest.   

The Amazon Easter Bunny arrived with my new ECHO 16 in Cordless Chainsaw April 3 (yes it takes that long for me to ponder new projects).   Of course the previous four months I was doing analysis/paralysis on which Chainsaw to purchase and getting great advice and Youtube links from A.M.  (and others).

Many people warned me of the challenges of cutting down the evasive honeysuckle and specifically J.R. told me not to use the chainsaw on the small stuff.  But did I listen to him...... NOooooooooo,

Now to the story :)

On the second time out (Sat. Apr. 10, 2021) I continued my project of clearing out the honeysuckle.   Two hours into the project the chain slipped off the 16 inch saw blade.  Hmmmm,  could it be because I was lazy and was using the chainsaw on the small roots like a sickle?   Tired and irritated that I had not taken J.R.'s advice, I sat down to grumble..... and then grief set in. 

In situations like this, my first phone call would have been to Dad.  Somehow Dad had not  passed down the handyman gene to me.  In fact, instead of patiently finding the user manual and tackling the job myself, my normal mode of operation would be to just call DAD for HELP and instruction.   But that 65 year old reliable help line was disconnected.  

Unwilling to risk the "non handyman guy embarrassment", I had no courage to try a different help line call to J.R., A.M.  or any of my other handyman backups. To call them for instruction would risk losing my handyman self esteem.  To lazy to go get the user manual, I decided to just figure this out by trial and error.

After re-attaching the chain, I  dutifully retrieved the loppers from the garage and began manually cutting the small roots of the honeysuckle correctly until the next three inch diameter root appeared.  Time for my newly attached chain with the chainsaw!!!   At the press of the button and connection to the root.... -  the chain acted as if would take a year to cut completely through the root.  I HAD PUT THE CHAIN ON BACKWARDS!

Sitting down again... knowing the rule my Dad always followed - "As you take things apart, carefully document and lay out the exact configuration for re-assembly" thoughts of failure reentered my mind.  Next step ...  actually trudge up the hill to find the user manual that I had been told to always put in a place I would remember with all other user manuals.  Another rule of thumb I constantly had ignored.

Luckily, I found the manual, spent the time to read the instructions, and reapplied the chain.   In seconds the chain sliced through the root and my handyman stature and manly self esteem was reinstated.   

Now it was time for confession.   I popped off a text to A.M. 


What a comforting text back from A.M. after both grieving and feeling unworthy.  We all need GRACE  in our times of trouble and sorrow.  That GRACE washes away our grieving and self imposed lies of unworthiness.  The light of love emerges from the depths of darkness. Follow the path of light.



Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Heaven Board #17 - Grandparent Club

Susan and I were just inducted into the Grandparent club.  God's gift to Jenna and Paul occurred at 6:28am EDT as Theodore Lee Robinson (8lbs 7oz and 21 inches) entered this world.  We are blessed that Jenna (with Paul) managed her T1D in such a successful pregnancy.   

The Rookie Grandparents are prevented from holding Theodore because of Hospital COVID-19 restrictions and we will await the discharge of Jenna and Theodore accompanied by driver and proud new father Paul.  

Paul,  Theodore, and Jenna Robinson

All the nests are prepared - nursery at two locations - parents and grandparents.   What a year of change with two Heaven Board entries!   

Plenty of room for more :)

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

The Old Rugged Cross - Heaven Board #16

 Dad passed into eternity peacefully January 5, 2021 at 7:40pm CST.  


Donal Lee Wisner

Wisner, Donal Lee, 95, devoted husband, loving father, faithful grandfather, and great grandfather, has gone to rest in peace. Private graveside services in Mulhall, Oklahoma, per his request. He was preceded in death by his parents, and wife Flora Wells Wisner. Survived by his children, D'Lane Wisner, Garen Wisner, and Vana Hartley; 5 grandchildren; and 4 great grandchildren. In lieu of flowers memorials to South Rock Christian Church, 900 S Rock Rd, Derby KS 67037. Share condolences at Smith Family Mortuaries : Derby, Kansas (KS) : Wichita, (KS)

I couldn't find the 90 "Because of You" list I had read to Dad on his 90th birthday (right after Mom's Death).  So I reconstructed that for his Eulogy on Saturday 1/9/2021. Too numerous to post and too personal to share - best summarized by:

A Christian Man in every way - and a GOOD and FAITHFUL SERVANT.  Dad you taught me that the Heaven where you now are with Mom  ----  Well ...... - Just three words ...... "It is Beautiful"



Three Words - Heaven Board #15

I should have posted this blog entry back in January 2020.  But the emotion of Dad's fall and near death experience with my 10 day visit to Derby Kansas while he was in ICU overwhelmed my emotions and clouded any desire to record my feelings.   Now the time is right to record this into my Heaven Board. 

The Wednesday Men's Breakfast group meet tomorrow to discuss C.S. Lewis's book "Mere Christianity".  We will be discussing Book 3 Chapter 10 - "Hope".   It reminded me of the genesis of the "Heaven Board" that I have neglected.   

Consider this my backdated Blog for Tuesday January 21, 2020  (almost a year ago):

It was Tuesday morning January 21, 2020 at the breakfast table in Derby Kansas (a suburb of Wichita) at the Derby Health and Rehabilitation Center that my 94 year old Dad and I had “the moment”.  Just three words would punctuate a master story that will stay with me forever. 

Dad had an Acute Level 2 fall on Sunday January 6th (Falls are rated 1-4 with 1 being the worst) with bleeding on the brain.  The bleeding had increased by Wednesday as he was bounced back to ICU with mortality in question.  Thursday without food and any eye contact, the Palliative Care consultant was quizzing my sister about the family decision regarding feeding tubes. 

Saturday morning I left Cincinnati and for the next six days I stayed at the Wichita hospital with Dad to try to nurse him back to life – feeding him, changing him, and trying whatever loving therapy I could deliver – praying for recovery, realistically fearing the future and anticipating the worst. I could pray God’s will be done in my head, but my heart was riding a rollercoaster.  Each day was an up or down.  Yet the trend seemed to point to Dad at least getting out of ICU.  But where?

Friday Jan. 14th he was discharged (after significant stressful discussions) to Derby Health and Rehabilitation Center.  I kept moving my date to return to Cincinnati until I could see Dad stabilized and until my sister had come to her difficult decision to take Family Medical leave from her job and take over Dad’s care and advocacy.   Right or not, I felt without almost 24/7 attention Dad would drift and die.

At least three times during my eleven day stay, I felt that Dad might just leave this world – right in my presence.  When Dad was removed from Kepra (a drug given to prevent seizures and stroke) he began to have random seizures --- some lasting minutes (although my emotional reaction may have made time slow down).  The family had already discussed Dad’s DNR (Do Not Resuscitate) and his wrist band clearly informed the hospital staff of that instruction. Would I have the courage not to call a nurse and see Dad die in my presence?

It was in a similar transfer this November, that a good friend (Mike Lipp) and spiritual small group member had died.  I spoke of his faith and courage at his funeral.  I had visited him in ICU the day before his transfer and death.  Mike had died in the EMS vehicle on the way to Rehab.  My fears were building that Dad would die in his transfer to Rehab also.    

Dad had another seizure just hours before his transfer.  It was the longest and worst. His whole body convulsed as if holding live 220volt wires – eyes shocked, body trembling feverously with no ability to communicate.   When the prior seizures would stop, I would ask “Dad…. Are you hurt; what happened; are you in pain?”.   Each time Dad would say nothing and not even acknowledge anything had happened.  This long seizure was no exception.  Yet it did end without calling anyone in to help.  The transfer would proceed. Adding to that stress, I would be unable to join Dad in the Van.  Could he die in transport like Mike Lipp - without me there?

 My head and “logical” conversation with others tired to calmly accept a possible ending – “Dad has lived a great life at age 94”, but my heart and emotions were unwilling to let him go.  I struggled internally with my other priorities - I had a life, family, responsibilities that needed me in Cincinnati.  How could my heart ever be strong enough to leave Dad and not be there if he should die?

Dad arrived safely at Derby Health and Rehabilitation on Friday afternoon.  Saturday Dad took a dive and with that my emotions.  I just couldn’t leave – Dad’s condition would go up and down for four more days.  Would Dad ever stabilize enough for my heart to match my head?

My head was trying to program Dad – but more trying to convince  my heart.  Yes -  I was telling Dad that my brother would be arriving Thursday.  Yes – I was telling Dad I would return Feb. 10.   Yes – I was telling Dad that my sister was there full time for him until Mid March.   But even my logic was not speaking truth from my heart.  The real world realities had now set in.  I must leave sometime – but when?  On Sunday, I announced to my sister I would be leaving Tuesday afternoon. She must care for Dad alone  Wednesday and Thursday and then my brother would arrive to help.  

I was dreading Tuesday morning breakfast – the goodbye.  How could I stay strong enough and not break down in front of Dad?   How could I get my heart and emotions aligned with my head – or visa versa?   

It was a bright crisp day with little to no clouds -  a good travel day versus the snowstorms of December and January that I had to navigate previously.  Dad was served his normal breakfast of oatmeal but the pancake, eggs and bacon had been pureed (mandated by the speech therapy nurse to avoid aspiration). Dad was not in the best mood about that.   Yet after encouraging him to eat for his strength, he complied and then nodded off at the table.  This was normal as his condition required significant concentration and energy to even eat and drink safely.  Yet another seizure awoke Dad – this one slightly different.  His facial expression now less a shock and more just intrigue – he reached his left arm (his strongest) stiffly out, completely extended in the air, shaking it as if electricity had control, his fist clenched – for the next 15-30 seconds -  he was in a daze.  For the first time my reaction was not in fear.  Instead once the seizure stopped, I asked Dad……  “Dad, What did you see?”    Afterall, he seemed to be reaching for something.   He had just three words, only three:  “IT WAS BEAUTIFUL”.  

Immediately I began drilling him with questions -  Did you see a light?  Did you see trees?   Did you see anyone?  Tell me what you saw?   Dad had no response.  Not unusual because his cognitive ability beyond three words and short statements for the past 11 days was limited.   But three words, for me, was enough.   Enough for me to be at peace leaving Dad that afternoon. 

Was it, a glimpse of heaven?   Was it, as my daughter the nurse said? --- “Oh Dad, focal seizures with hallucinations are typical of brain injuries.” Was it, Dad and the strength of a father assuring his son, even in his end journey, that I could go?  Was it God delivering the benediction of 11 days of JOY?  

When we are born there is little self-awareness; when we are at the minutes end, I wonder how much self-awareness we will have then.   Yet, as adults, we can see and/or experience births of our children and we might see and experience the end of life journeys of our parents.  Why should one be  happy and the other sad?   After these three words from my Dad,  I think both experiences are bounded in JOY.