Election - Humility not Hubris

 This morning Donald Trump has won the 2024 Presidential Election.  About 71.8 million voted for Donald Trump and 66.9 million for Kamala Harris in the popular vote with final votes still to be counted.  

Today's Wed 7:15BC group who are studying "Gossip - 10 Pathways to Eliminate it from your Life and Transform your Soul" by Lori Palatnik had a "God wink" discussion on the Chapter 11 - "Avoid Envy and Arrogance" that morphed into a complete discussion about Pride and Humility.

A.S. said it best - "Especially today we need humility not hubris!"

Another God Wink occurred in my mid-morning devotional from the Ligonier October Monthly TableTalkMagazine.com - Day 3 "Gentle and Reasonable Wisdom (James 3:17b).

Matthew Henry comments, gentleness means "not standing upon extreme right in matters of property; not saying or doing any thing rigorous in points of censure; not being furious about opinions, urging our own beyond their weight nor theirs who oppose us beyond their intention; not being rude and overbearing in conversation, [or social media - my words], nor harsh and cruel in temper."

Both parties promoted Common Sense.  Let's change that to Gentle and Reasonable Wisdom!

Eerie Election Echos

Back in early September T.M. graciously gave me a one-month free subscription referral to Nate Silver's "Silver Bulletin" suggesting a good way to monitor the poll data for this election. That referral marketing technique worked since I subscribed after the 30 days to continue to get updates until election day. 

This election - Assassination attempts, Biden dropping out, RFK Jr. third party run all reminded me of the 1968 election - Johnson dropping out, Humphery running, RFK assassinated, George Wallace third party etc.  An eerie set of echos of 1968.  

I was very interested in political elections as a teenager and remember playing endless hours the 1967 3M bookshelf board game - Mr. President Mr. President | Board Game | BoardGameGeek. 

I popped downstairs and found the old game (yes, I am a packrat borderline hoarder) - opened it up to remind myself of the rules and found two old index cards that we had designed of Hubert Humphry and Tricky Dick Nixon to make the 1968 election a simulation in the game.  

So how will this election result echo 1968 (see 1968 Election Results) ?   Nixon won handily 301 in the electoral college but barely won the popular vote and who knows how the 10 million votes George Wallace would have been distributed had he not run (regardless Nixon had the majority needed for the electoral college).  

More interestingly to me - this election and all the very precise polling has reminded me of a high school assigned reading (likely in history class) by Issac Asimov "Franchise" written in 1955 about the election of 2008 when a Multivac Computer (AI related) could select one person to vote to determine the election result.  Another eerie echo of how sophisticated our polling is - even 60 minutes had a segment "The Swingiest Count" where Door County Wisconsin has voted for the winning presidential candidate since 2000 - "a political weather vane".  However 60 minutes could not find one person in that county that had correctly voted for the winner since 2000.  

Who will win the 2024 election?  I might as well go out on a limb.  Based on the eerie echos - Flip a coin and hope it doesn't land on it's edge.

 

Moral Speed Limits

What if there was a Speedometer Constitutional Amendment for the right to drive at any speed using “evidence-based standards requiring the least restrictive means within human survival viability”.  How would you vote?

As a moderate Libertarian (if that category exists), I have always claimed that morality ultimately can't be legislated.  Consequently, in matters of drugs, guns, and sex, I talk a good game of lassie faire - keep the government out of my life and others also.  

But the "rubber has now hit the road" The Right to Reproductive Freedom with Protections for Health and Safety proposed Ohio Constitutional Amendment now being voted upon (early voting in Ohio has already started) mandates that I declare my belief, values, political viewpoint, and moral compass. 

A.S. has motivated me to research the daylights out of this issue.  Pouring through the Pew Research Views of Abortion, reading the actual legal jargon of the amendment,  researching the Heartbeat Law now being litigated in Ohio, and reading the book "The Turnaway Study" by Diana Greene Foster PhD.   This even motivated me to send the WSJ a letter to the editor about the issue. 

The political war is now in full gear with outside money trying to influence the Ohio vote.  The WSJ (10/3/23) has done a state-by-state analysis:

So - what's my conclusion?  I am now "forced" to vote.   Like other Ohioans - only the ballot box will know.   But regardless of the November 2023 outcome - this moral issue of our time will not be resolved, nor will legislation permanently change moral behavior.

As I drive the roadways I see the legal signs, my car tells me the speed limit, I know the risks of speeding, and I know the consequences.  The law sets boundaries, and we are provided the "dignity of risk".  

To Many Twos

I missed the ultimate numerology blogging event 2-22-22 at 22:22:22 GMT.   What reminded me of it was reading a very interesting book - "VERY, VERY, VERY DREADFUL - The Influenza Pandemic of 1918" by Albert Martin.  It interweaves the Spanish Flu History with WWI and referenced the signed armistice that would take effect 11-11-11 (the 11th hour, of the 11th day of the 11th month of the year 1918.  

Amazing trivia was that: 

"Many soldiers on both sides, wanted the honor of firing the last shot of the war.  As wristwatches ticked off the final minutes, it seemed every gun on the Western Front cut loose at once...Men called this the 'mad moment'.  And in that moment, more than 10,000 men including 3,000 Americans, were killed or wounded for nothing" (Source: Armistice - The End of World War I, 1918 (eyewitnesstohistory.com) and November 11th 1918 - History Learning Site)

What will we remember about 2-22-22 at 22:22:22 GMT?    Maybe the beginnings of WWIII?

Infinite Boosters

I continue to daily post in my own personal spreadsheet COVID statistics and read as quickly as I can the various medical study reports.  Nearly all these reports are available prior to any peer review process and picked up by the media for purposes of publishing COVID - PORN.  I will self admit I am addicted to all this COVID -PORN no different from the individual red state or blue state political addict is to watching Fox News or MSNBC.  

However -  I am beginning to see some light into the reasonable arguments about natural immunity, lack of randomized trials, even principled and ethical regulators who will not be pressured, bullied, or abandon the proven methods and analysis expected by (and taught for years) scientists, academics and experts trained in the scientific principle. 

During this COVID crisis I've come to love listening/viewing  ZDogg's point of view and interviews with experts.  It has helped form my opinions about this crisis and possibly reinforced some of my objections to the vaccination arguments that are statistically in error or abused.  

The controversy about the booster shot from Pfizer shows how fear, politics, time pressure, greed, and every other human emotional response can reveal the worst in our behaviors and relationships.  The human condition is the need to be right, to be affirmed by others, and.... to prove others they are wrong.  Being Right has become the most important outcome - beyond even survival.  

Several adages come to mind -   "Don't cut your nose to spite your face"; "Whether you are Dead Right or Dead Wrong... You're still Dead";   "Add injury to insult"; "The early bird contracts the Worms"; "Add salt to the injury";  "Don't dig in your heels only to discover you can't walk".

Herd Immunity rings too closely to the term Mob Mentality.  Democracy unchecked makes the Mob "Right".  Social media manufactures what is "Heard" into the Herd.  Simpson's Paradox makes everyone statistically right.

Growing Data Awareness

One valuable and sacred principle of American freedom is the ring of truth that inevitably rises from any cloaking of information - the Pentagon Papers, Vietnam Causulties, Tobacco Cancer Data.... the list goes on  (10 Cover-ups that Just Made Things Worse). 

A.S. sent me an email suggesting I watch a youtube presentation from Dr. Dan Stock to the Mt. Vernon School Board last night.  By 9:00am this morning the Youtube feed had been removed.

Naturally I decided to look into the guidelines for this removal from a public School Board Meeting. The Youtube specific policy on COVID-19 can be found at this link:  COVID-19 Medical Misinformation Policy. 

YouTube doesn't allow content that spreads medical misinformation that contradicts local health authorities’ or the World Health Organization’s (WHO) medical information about COVID-19. This is limited to content that contradicts WHO or local health authorities’ guidance on:

• Treatment 
• Prevention
• Diagnosis
• Transmission
• Social distancing and self isolation guidelines
• The existence of COVID-19

Note: YouTube’s policies on COVID-19 are subject to change in response to changes to global or local health authorities’ guidance on the virus. This policy was published on May 20, 2020. 

Luckily the internet provides a vehicle for 1st Amendment Rights - Freedom of Speech and I was able to find the transcript of Dr. Dan Stock's address. Clearly this (among others) statement did him in:

"And you can’t prevent it with a vaccine because they don’t do the very thing you’re wanting them to do, and you will be chasing this the remainder of your life until you recognize that the Center for Disease Control, and the Indiana State Board of Health, are giving you very bad scientific guidance" 

One side claims conspiracy theories by kooks, the other side claims government propoganda and each attempts to gain public access and the podium.  

My bully pulpit is about the data and continues to be only that in my poorly written blogs (as pointed out by T.Mc.).  Obviously my bias (self proclaimed) is that I previously had COVID-19 (with documented Antibodies) and feel no rush to become vaccinated.  

Recently I became aware of Mass. Dept of Health statistics.  Ignoring the CDC's advice to not count breakthrough cases (and only hospitalizations and deaths) they are publishing (a bit hard to find though) data on Breakthroughs cases in addition to hospitalizations and deaths.

I can quibble with their percentage calculation as too early to be significant (it's like saying in March 31of 2020 there were only 3,889 deaths in the USA from COVID-19 with a population of 332 million - .001%).  I think both percentages are meaningless. 

However - give Mass Dept of Health credit for maintaining history.  On May 24 there were 3.343 Breathtrough cases with 2.9 million fully vaccinated; On 7/31 there were 7,737 Breakthrough Cases and on 8/7 there were 9,969 Breakthrough cases with 4.3 million fully vaccinated.  You can now compute the compounded daily growth rate of  Breakthrough infections in Mass.  for the fully vaccinated.  Oh heck -  I'll do it for you -  It is a 1.47% Daily Compound Growth Rate since May 24 and the last week was a 3.69% Daily Compound Growth Rate from 7/31 to 8/7.   

NOTE:   The COMPOUND DAILY GROWTH RATE OF COVID-19 POSITIVE CASES (USA) FROM 1/20/2020 to 8/11/2021 is ....... wait for it .........3.11%

T. Mc. (also willing to crosscheck my logic and play devils advocate) just sent me an email from a reliable left bias source The Guardian to the question:  Why isn’t the US tracking ‘breakthrough’ Covid cases?

The response he received from Nao Yachot (Guardian US Membership Editor) is too long to publish in this blog,  Here is a snipet:  

With Delta come many questions that Guardian reporters have been pursuing as hospitals in the deep south run out of ICU beds, mayors and governors reintroduce restrictions and health professionals report increased hospitalization of children with severe cases. Among the questions we are asking:

• How many vaccinated people are getting infected with so-called “breakthrough” Covid cases?
• Are children at particular risk as the school year begins?
• Can people who have been vaccinated still get long Covid?

Answering some of these questions is made tricky by the fact that the US has no centralized system for collecting information on breakthrough cases – because the CDC stopped tracking those cases earlier this year, and is now only collecting data on breakthrough cases that lead to hospitalization or death. In an op-ed we recently published, science writer Yasmin Tayag laments this dearth of information, which she says limits our ability to make informed decisions.

The cry of Paul Revere for data will be heard.....  time and data freedom will ring the truth.  Let both the right and left cry out - uncensored. 

Citizen Data Scientists

A. S. who has put up with my constant emails and has been my outlet for my statistical skepticism sent me an interesting story on how the CDC came to study the Provincetown Mass. COVID cluster infection of the fully vaccinated.  In fact Michael Donnelly launched his own COVIDoutlook.info website.  

Now I don't feel so bad about the time I daily spend updating my own COVID Data Model Spreadsheet and blogging about the misinformation or spin doctoring statistics.  I just finished reading the book "Extra Life: A  Short History of Living Longer"  by Steven Johnson (also a CET documentary). In 1866 the Citizen Data Scientist -William Farr discovers the Cholera outbreak in London is due to one infected water source and proves the transmission method.  His charts are worthy of framing. 

When the government, institutions, media and mob attempt to discredit the individual voices skeptics as crazy misinformation pundits we discourage the very citizenship voice of discovery needed to improve the science.

The Grandfather Club

 What a inexcusable oversight -  the birth of Theodore Lee Robinson in April.  This inducted me into the Grandparents Club and reminded me of A.M.'s wisdom 10+ years ago.   I was in my 50's and developing my "Decade Planning Document" along with a Vistage Presentation on Longevity.   Since my timeline of family life events was about 10 years behind A.M. and others, I asked the question -"What one lesson (words of wisdom) of your last decade would you share for me as I embark into my 60's?    I remember A.M.'s response distinctly:  "I totally underestimated the Grandfather thing!".  

My first unsupervised babysitting of Teddy was Wednesday evening as Paul was subbing for me at tennis.  The memories caring for Jenna and Ellen as infants flooded into my mind as I was revisiting the football hold, the diaper techniques, burping, rocking and keeping calm in the face of crying.  The hour and half reminded me of how exhausting newborn's can be.   The difference as a Grandfather - the handoff to the Mom :)

This weekend I will miss the Wells Family Reunion which yearly honors the generations.  Dad and Aunt Revae (now 105) will be spotlighted.  The memories of prior generations are the foundations for the new generation to utilize in stewarding forward.  Teddy now enters the world with hope and joy.  The Grandfather club starts the process of passing the memory baton.

The Data Tells Me So

 As a closet (and old) Statistician, I am very disturbed about the data analysis going on around COVID-19 - the clinical trials, the data reported about breakthrough cases, the death data, hospitalizations, comorbidity, .. etc. etc.  And the old adage "The Devil is in the Detail" totally applies.   

Add to this Devil Data Detail problem is the Media Mania Mega horn creating confirming bias in the face of the large spectrum of human fear, uncertainty and doubt.  Then you have the desire to correlate political views into a divisive intellectual divide of blaming, shaming, and defaming each other.  

I recognize this is a global moving target of information, science, and parity.  Another global humanity test on the scale of World War survival impact.  How we respond globally and not nationally will be how we measure success.   India (who declared premature victory) and Brazil (who declared premature fearlessness) are now suffering.  The USA, UK and Israel now cautiously tempted to forecast freedom are in danger of their own nationalistic premature conclusions of what we believe "the science tells us".

Unfortunately the data is still in process.   150 million known (or estimated) positive COVID-19 cases and 3.157 million deaths is just a drop in the bucket of an estimated world population of 7.86 Billion (as of 4pm EST). This is still considered a small sample size to Statisticians.   

As a confirmed skeptic, the data I look at only provides "recent-cy bias" (if that's a word) for those declaring victory.  The only certainty I claim is that the healthcare science knows .... what it knows but doesn't know (or publish) what it doesn't know.   The famous Donald Rumsfeld quote that set the reporters into paradoxical philosophy - "There are Known Knowns".  

Please don't tell me - "The Science Tells Me So"; or "The Data Tells Me So";  

Boston Illegal #19

Thursday evening May 14, 2020 was my 56th official day at home (Shelter in Place).  I have literally not left the house more than 4 times in my car  (Ellen & Susan have been my concierge for food and sundries).  I have physically seen only twelve people for these 56 days.   Since Ohio was opening up it was time for a socially physical distancing time - Boston Legal. #19.

Once the spouses heard about this they decided to have their Boston Illegal on the front patio.  The need for physical social interaction is clearly a mandatory emotional need.  The movie Castaway with Tom Hanks remains one of my favorite movies as it shows the willingness to risk death for relationship connectiveness.

It does not surprise me that the USA is opening up and emotions are riding high between the extroverts and introverts. Suddenly a new education about natural rights and freedoms become the day to day discussions about the shelter-in-place orders and pending orders about masks and gloves.

J.P. had sent me a link to Randy Barnett's discussion about Individual Liberty in a Pandemic.  Little did I understand the overriding weight of my freedom as defined by the Ohio Constitution (vs the Federal Constitution).  I have never read the Ohio Constitution!

No movie for this Boston Legal  -  however I decided to post facto watch one as the suggested homework -   Charlton Heston in "The Omega Man" (1971).   Little did I realize this was just a COVID-19 movie showing all the people that decided to ignore shelter in place and stay out late at night :)

Normal Numbers Nonsense?

The discussion (sometimes called argument) continues about whether COVID-19 is anymore serious that the normal flu.  Everyone is second guessing each state's Governor's response, the Federal Government's response and comparing our death rate to other countries responses to this pandemic.  J.P. even asked what level of deaths in the U.S. would justify praise for the state and federal response?

The real underlying issue is what is a pandemic?   History provides some clue to this answer.  Start with what is considered the 5-6 Worst Pandemics in History .

(1) The Bubonic Plague/Black Death 1347- 1351 75-200 million deaths worldwide
(2) Spanish Flu (H1N1) -  1918-1919 50 million worldwide deaths (675,000 USA)
(3) Asian Flu  (H2N2) - 1957  1.1 million worldwide deaths (116,000 USA)
(4) Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) - 1968  1 million worldwide deaths (100,000 USA)
(5) Swine Flu (H1N1) - 2009-2010  575,400 worldwide deaths (12,469 USA)
(6) HIV/AIDS -  1980 - 2006  25 million deaths worldwide (still in process)

The Worldometer Coronavirus daily count is now at 233,686 worldwide deaths and 63,765 in USA so by the numbers it may surpass the #4 and #3 in absolute numbers. 

But the absolute numbers are still flawed in revealing a solution.   For example:  The Spanish Flu, which lasted 36 months, in it's first wave (Jan 1918 - October 1918)  killed 200,000 people in the USA (about 0.194% of the 103 million population). The estimated infected population was 1/3 so the actual mortality rate for the first wave was about 0.582%.   Presented in a percentage that number seems no different from the seasonal flu.  This numbers nonsense is used to criticize the shelter-in-place actions (either soft or hard).

A recent RedState article was sent to me "If Wuhan Virus Is SoBad, Why Are Deaths So Low?" that attempted to justify why "There is really no medical reason to pursue this nonsense." The data looks legitimate sourcing from the CDC, yet a quick check on the actual site of Vital Statistics shows quite a different picture.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/

After lengthy conversation with P.N.,  I gave up trying to use numbers to convince him that this crisis is approaching the severity of the Spanish Flu and is well beyond the mortality numbers of a normal flu season in the USA.  Finally we both agreed that based on today's nonsensical numbers that by year end deaths in the USA could approach 100K - 120K.

It just shows that normal - is in whatever numbers make you feel normal.  And that's the definition of  nonsense - predicting deaths that we call "normal levels".

Lessons of History

"Those who cannot learn from History are doomed to repeat it"  was stated by George Santayana and ironically lived during the Spanish Flu and was from Spain (the country that inherited the name for the tragic Spanish Flu that likely started in Kansas).

I think the country (and possibly the world) might be experiencing deja vu on this COVID-19 pandemic.   Read some of the quotes from the Smithsonian article about the Spanish Flu:

By July [1918] it didn’t seem to matter. As a U.S. Army medical bulletin reported from France, the “epidemic is about at an end...and has been throughout of a benign type.” A British medical journal stated flatly that influenza “has completely disappeared.”

SEPT 1918 The second wave had begun. -  Across the country, public officials were lying. U.S. Surgeon General Rupert Blue said, “There is no cause for alarm if precautions are observed.” New York City’s public health director declared “other bronchial diseases and not the so-called Spanish influenza...[caused] the illness of the majority of persons who were reported ill with influenza.” The Los Angeles public health chief said, “If ordinary precautions are observed there is no cause for alarm.” Now the head of the Army’s communicable disease division, he jotted down his private fear: “If the epidemic continues its mathematical rate of acceleration, civilization could easily disappear...from the face of the earth within a matter of a few more weeks.”  Then, as suddenly as it came, influenza seemed to disappear. It had burned through the available fuel in a given community. An undercurrent of unease remained, but aided by the euphoria accompanying the end of the war, traffic returned to streets, schools and businesses reopened, society returned to normal.

A third wave followed in January 1919, ending in the spring. This was lethal by any standard except the second wave ……   After that third wave, the 1918 virus did not go away, but it did lose its extraordinary lethality, partly because many human immune systems now recognized it and partly because it lost the ability to easily invade the lungs. No longer a bloodthirsty murderer, it evolved into a seasonal influenza.  Another question concerns who died. Even though the death toll was historic, most people who were infected by the pandemic virus survived; in the developed world, the overall mortality was about 2 percent. 

Source:  https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/

Looking further into the politics of the time, the political fight over entry into WW I preceded the virus and I'm sure Woodrow Wilson became distained for his actions at that time (both War and Pandemic).   

J.P. wondered what level of deaths in the US would justify praise for the state and federal response?  Until the election is over, and we are out of economic hardship, the cacophony of BOTH praise and criticism will be deafening.  Once that time fades in our memory, it will be sounds of silence with another lesson of history forgotten for a more enlightened generation to ignore.  

Jesus Christ could have come down and halted the virus on Easter and there would still be critics saying he arrived on the scene late :)

Micro vs Macro Views

Some might title the micro view of this crisis "Looking out for #1" ( like the 70's book by Robert Ringer) - it all comes down to "How will the COVID-19 affect me and my family?

For two weeks I've been looking through the rear view mirror at COVID-19 data (Worldwide, USA and State). Even trying to forecast the traffic pattern and peak rush hour risk in the future (with limited success).  But how do you predict what's happening on the local road you are traveling on?  How can you predict how many cars are on YOUR local road and how many are on the road miles ahead of your present position?   More cars are entering the road hourly, more probability of collision with the chance of major accident with possible fatal outcomes.

That took me to the Seattle and King County road map.  Why not see what happened there where the first car entered the USA highway network.

I was amazed at the quality of the Seattle and King County Public Health site and Coronavirus Dashboard:

As a Statistician, I know it is dangerous to pick one data point especially since at least 55 of the cases and 20 of the deaths in King County are related to one physical site - Life Care Center of Kirkland.  This instance makes up almost 10% of the County Deaths all of which were probably residents over the age of 80.   But even with that outlier this data is worth reviewing.

Here are my observations  (rounded for convenience):
(1)  87% of those tested  are Negative
(2) Number of tests per day is about 1K
(3) While the compounded growth rate since the first instance (2/28) to April 4 is 29%, the daily percentage increase was about 4% for April 4th.
(4) More Men than Women test Positive  (W-11%;  M-16%)
(5)You don't want to be 80+ in age (Death % of Positive Cases = 24%)
(7) Best to be under 60  0.8% (Death % of Positive Cases)
(8) Better to be female that male (W-8% Death; M-6% Death)

When looking at the micro view - the fear depends on your age and sex (also pre-existing health issues as reported elsewhere). Now suddenly the potential solutions become more individualized.

The micro view would focus on individual quarantine and age and health based physical/social distancing or shelter-in-place.  This might be a ramp-up strategy for restarting the US economy.

Whether micro of macro, the actions to take will be an experiment we will all have to live with and learn from for future outbreaks.

Macro vs Micro Views

Two weeks ago, I posted the data I felt was most meaningful - outcomes only- recovery and deaths. The March 22 Death rate % of closed cases was 12.93%

The new Death Rate (April 5th) on closed cases is 20.78%. Not good. 

Yet the debate in the USA polarized by an election year continues to rage about what actions on a local, state and federal level should be taken to mitigate the virus impact on human life and economic hardship.

I have even flip flopped emotionally on the cost/benefit of the various lockdowns.   My opinion toggles between looking at the data from a macro view (lock it down) to the micro view (let the youth go free).

Today's blog is the Macro view.  I have compiled the comparison of 5 countries - USA, Italy, Germany, China and S. Korea for the inflow and death outflow.

The two line charts of logarithmic and the desired view is the flattening of the curve (meaning the growth rate stops).  China's line goes almost completely flat (somewhere at 30-40 days) and S. Korea has a very minor slope (after 15-20 days).  Not so good a picture for USA, Italy and Germany well past the 30 days and growing.

The macro/global view would favor locking down the country using Federal control until the curve flattens and deaths level out.  This benefits not only the country involved but provides containment within a country and favors an international containment strategy.

However the micro view (wait for a subsequent blog) favors a more liberal view and focuses on just the threatened age group and those with pre-existing conditions.

Truth and Consequences

Truth will reveal itself over time.  Consequently arguments are really about time - should we wait or not in our decisions today.  Probability adds into that equation and expected values.  And so the argument continues about COVID-19 and the decisions that are being made - individually, community, nationally and globally.

Questions about the utility of life and what measures we take to save lives we constantly be argued.  Close to 75% of all deaths in the USA are the result of 10 causes (top three are 50%) -  Heart Disease, Cancer, Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease, Accidents, Stroke, Alzheimer's, Diabetes,Influenza and Pneumonia, Kidney, and Suicide.

So add three of them up - Respiratory (147K), Influenza (55K) and Suicide (43K) -  245K deaths.  Now put the cost of a life into this equation - let's assume $10 million (Value of Life) per life.  So we lose $2.45 Billion a year in lives for these three conditions.  This is likely overstated since the value of one's life varies over time and the older you are the less future earned income you can produce.  But save that thought for a different blog entry.

Let's switch to USA GDP - $21.73 Trillion and growing at 2-3%.  So here is the question -   What reduction of the GDP growth rate would you accept to save 500K lives?

If GDP growth slowed to zero in 2020 (say down 2.4% -see  Coronavirus could cost the Global Economy $2.7 Trillion. Here's How) the that would be a cost of $522 Billion.  Would you accept a $522 Billion economic opportunity loss to save 500K lives?

Bloomberg  3/6/2020  Coronavirus Could Cost the Global Economy $2.7 Trillion

Back to the equation of $10 million a life -  $5 Billion for 500K lives.  Here is where the logic breaks down - let the 500K die to save the economy.  It's 10 times the return on life.

Looking at it a different way - "At least $26 Trillion in global market capitalization has been lost since February"  (Goodbye, Dow 30,000! Hello Dow 10,000?). Obviously this drop is not entirely due to COVID-19 - but assume 50% was - $13Trillion.  What would if have been worth to prevent COVID-19 from entering the USA back in February?  What would it be worth to stop COVID-19 from spreading, get back to work, and put calm back into the Stock Market?

As you can tell - I have no answers, only questions.   Our governmental officials must wrestle with these questions but ultimately they must "bet" on time - act now or wait and see.  Different states are being allowed to make their own bets.  The Federal Government provides oversight and can "Trump" their decisions.  When is the right time for that?

Truth will be known this time next year and the historic bloggers that were right will point out their prowess.  Those that we wrong will justify their logic and decision "at that time".

Everyone will claim the Truth - yet no one knows the Truth.

Sieze the Day - EVERYDAY MATTERS

Everyday matters in the containment of COVID-19.  As a statistician and numbers obsessed individual, I have been tracking my own spreadsheet of growth rates and predictions for the USA, Ohio and Cincinnati..  My first discovery is the problem with public data sources, timing, and the relative misinformation (or misinterpretation) provided by various sources of well intended reporters doing their own analysis (like me).

As I have previously pointed out, you should focus on what most matters - outcomes - which  means deaths and recoveries (life). The absolute number of recoveries (96,958) is increasing slowly (growth rate is 3.3%) while the absolute number of deaths (14,573) is increasing rapidly (growth rate 12.5%).  The growth rate of worldwide infections is 11% percent and based on cumulative infections to day the death percentage is 4.3%  and slowly inching up  (based on worldwide data - 340K infections and 14.6K deaths). What do all these numbers really mean?

This data analysis is a moving target. So here is a case where the input of new infections is like a fire hose filling a water bucket while the data about the outcomes of death and recovery are only a few tiny holes letting the water out of the bucket. We are trying to plug the death holes and widen the recovery holes while trying to slow the rate of water going into the bucket. Since the outcome holes are small and are slow in flow (5% or less) , the most important variable is the input - which is overwhelmingly large and fast in flow (11% Worldwide). The bucket is filling rapidly!

With that in mind, I have concentrated my thinking with the rate of input - compound growth rate of new infections in the USA and Ohio (35.9% and 45% respectively).   Next most important question is to determine when that growth rate begins to diminish - predicting the PEAK of the growth rate curve (with the only data available and suspect - Wuhan and China).

Using March 1 as a starting point in the USA with 62 cases of COVID-19, I have been tracking with various data sources reporting the cumulative number of infections in the USA , Ohio and most selfishly where I live Cincinnati.  As of 3:00pm EST the USA compound growth rate in infections is 35.9% for 21 days (3/1 - 3/22) and 45% Ohio for 7 days (3/15 - 3/22) and in Cincinnati - no growth rate yet but 4 known cases. To be fair, this analysis assumes a start date in March versus the real ground zero infection point which likely occurred sometime in mid February.

Look at these charts:

This shows why the implicit growth rate is so important and dramatic.  Why we hope that we are on a 20% curve versus a 42% curve and why we hope the curve peaks at 26 days versus 61 days.

This is why the Governors of each state in the USA (like China already has done) are rapidly ordering "draconian" measures to attempt to minimize the  absolute numbers in new infections regardless of the real compound growth rate  and the unknown death rate as a percentage of infections.  This also why EVERYDAY MATTERS!!!!

Next blog entry coming -  WHEN IS THE PEAK?  ---- pray for 26 days or less.

TGIF

For Wall Street Investors the adage "Thank God It's Friday" may be an understatement.  As I write this blog at 3:06 EST the DJIA has dropped 16% for the week, 33% for the month.  The market drop is better defined now as contagion - the combination of emotional fear from the economic impact of lockdowns with the Saudi/Russia Oil fight, and a sprinkle of political uncertainty. 

In this environment - cash is king, physical supplies is queen.  This is my second day locked down at the house.  Taking a walk in the neighborhood, it felt like grand central station - cars, people walking, children playing outside, even an Indian Hill Ranger patrolling and stopping to say hello.  Of course it helps that it was a sunny day with temperatures in the 50's.

Ellen cooked some brownies, Jenna was outside playing fetch with her dog Wally, Paul was working making client phone calls, and Susan attempting to collect receivables for her clients.  I sat transfixed on the red and green ups and downs of individual stocks while listening to the gloom and doom of CNBC.

Will the pressure cooker of this week's activity continue to build over the weekend?  With little routine outlets available for weekend decompression, everyone will be trying to find new activities and ways to fill their time.  What a great opportunity to re-evaluate how we spend our time together and what we can do to be emotionally supportive of each other. Like the feeling of being snowed in during a winter storm, we can practice ways to create calm and peace.  Here are some ideas:

(1) Turn off the media
(2) Read a book
(3) How about a puzzle; or art; or a family game
(4) Take a walk outside in the neighborhood
(5) Do one of those home organization projects you have put off indefinitely

Take the time to appreciate your home and feeling safe at home.

Educational Pandemic

Even though schools may be closed, there is much learning going on - at least for those interested in learning more about this global crisis.

(1) Exponential growth and various statistics about calculating mortality rates
(2) Country and Culture comparisons in approach to dampening the virus progress
(3) Biology of animal to human transmission of virus (yes I had to look up  pangolins and civets).

(4) Generational respect -  Asking the youth to stop partying and transmitting the COVID-19 to us old folks.
(5) Political laws about cancelling primaries or elections.
(6) Powers of Executive Branches (Federal, State and Local) in declared emergencies
(7) Charts depicting the damping and slowing down process
(8) Social customs of greeting and how to perform social distancing
(9) Specific instructions on hygiene and how to wash your hands
(10) Statistics on how often you touch your face (about 3000 times a day)
(11) How to amuse yourself without Sports, Bars, Parades, Restaurant, Gym, ....  you name it.
(12) Maybe seek some additional spiritual growth and education
(13) How to work from home
(14) Learning how to use technology (e.g. Amazon order; Echo Show communication; Overdrive for library books)

I even liked the creativity and actions this virus is drawing out of businesses:
 
(1) Restaurants now considering the delivery business
(2) Specific store hours by age distribution  (maybe to help in the normal flu season)
(3) Work Conferencing
(4) Communicating with customers and suppliers
(5) Expediting supply chains in critical industries
(6) Accelerate the vaccine development and delivery process
(7) Business interruption plans and contingency


Yes - a crisis like this can create new ways of thinking and doing business.   Additionally it can create a sense and need for global cooperation and problem solving.  Yes - there will be plenty of suffering, but maybe it is the very suffering that will point us to the single source of joy.

In spite of all the recommendations to manage social distancing physically, a crisis like this can only be managed by socially interconnecting virtually and spiritually.

No Country for Old Men

It was Boston Legal #16 (or Cincinnati Legal) on Thursday May 23 hosted by J.P.  and serendipitously the movie picked was No Country for Old Men.  As K.C. pointed out we are just Old Men talking about politics when the Millennials are now a larger eligible voting block vs the Baby Boomers.  Of course the skeptic in me had to look it up:

Yes Millennials are now 32% vs 30% Baby Boomers.   Adding in Gen X and the younger generations are 57%  - THE MAJORITY.

SO …. this is NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN :)

Political Comedy Low Point

I just finished reading Michelle Wolf's caustic comedy routine at the White House correspondents' dinner.  Absolutely disgusting! I wonder what made me feel this way?

I personally have a style of teasing, cutting humor, satire, sarcastic commentary, spiced with a jab, a razz, and sometimes a taunt to those I have closest relationships with.  I think this came from my east coast teenage years of junior high and high school.   Of course someone who delivers this style must also be thick skinned enough to take it back (which I think I do).  Most of my good friends enjoy jabbing at me also.  It is a way to laugh at oneself and each other.  Also it can be a fun battle of wits.

Yet reading this comedy routine shows how sarcasm can be abused and especially when the sexual innuendos cascade to filth.  For years, I have watched and enjoyed the White House correspondent's dinner.  My favorite was George W's playful interaction with his impersonator Steve Bridges in 2006.

What a great example of self deprecating humor, soft teasing, and "clean and wholesome humor.

It is shameful to see where the White House correspondents' dinner has evolved. No wonder the President didn't show up this year.