Godly Credit

I decided to experiment with Gemini Imagen 3 or 4 (not sure which I have access to).  

In a study of Exodus using Dennis Prager's "The Rational Bible", I expanded upon his commentaries about remembering and the connection of memories with gratitude, faith and national memory (in this case the Jewish People) with my own quote reaching into the concepts of Trust and Obey along with Holiness and Joy.  

After 30 minutes of dialogue with Gemini and generating 14 image attempts, I "ran out of gas" with the following AI generated image:

The key questions are - who gets "credit" for the image?  Garen?  Gemini? Who gets "credit" for the text/quote?  Dennis Prager?  Garen?

The real answer - "God gets credit for it all!"    

Heaven Board #19 - Bread of Friendship

A beautiful Sunday morning meditation on the deck allows me the blessing of reflecting on yesterday's celebration of life for Joe Ratterman -mentor, colleague, close friend for over 48 years.  Joe suffered from Parkinson's since 2009.  I loved what his family wrote in his obituary posted at Spring Grove Cemetery site -

My thoughts in his memorial tribute makes this a definite Heaven Board entry!

Joe Ratterman was a man of many hats – though more often than not, those hats took the literal form of a ball cap.  Even with all those hats, in 48 years of knowing Joe, I’m sure there were other hats invisible to me.

I knew Accenture Joe, Social Venture Partners Joe, Golfing Joe, Bengals Joe, Philosophy over a Lager Joe, Frugal Joe, Old Man Tuesday Movie Joe, Storytelling Joe, Hyde Park Country Club Joe, Haps Joe, Gorman Heritage Farmer Joe, BMW Joe, St. X Joe, Fort Scott Camp Joe, Family Joe.

But beneath all those hats were Listening Joe, Strong Willed Joe, Honest Joe, Practical Joe, Even Handed Joe, Joking Joe, Caring Joe, Giving Joe, Philosophical Joe, Loving Joe and the one hat that covered them all: Friendship Joe

Let me share a moment that’s stuck with me.  In 2016,  well after his Parkinson’s diagnosis, I asked Joe for his definition of a friend – it was for a presentation I was preparing.  Without missing a beat, he said

 “Someone I don’t have to talk to on a drive all the way to Chicago”. 

That was Joe – No fluff, No performance.  Just presence.  Even near the end, when words were fewer, his friendship remained unmistakable.

And Joe never kept his friendships to himself. – I lost count  of how many times someone approached him out of nowhere full of gratitude.  If you were a friend of Joe’s you were ushered into a web of warmth and mutual respect. This was just his nature: love that overflowed and expanded.

Joe and I often talked about life and philosophy over a beer or two. One day at Paxton’s Grill – a lyric drifted through the speakers that made both of us stop and listen.  It was Sturgill Simpson singing:

“But I swear that God is there…… every time I glare into the eyes of my best friend”.   

 It was, in a word, “a God wink”. A sacred interruption tucked into our normal after lunch tradition.

We had our ritual “Solving World Problems” we’d call it, half-jokingly.  But these talks often drifted into deep spiritual waters – life purpose, mortality and even heaven.   I remember one deep discussion about Peter Kreeft’s book Heaven: The Heart’s Deepest Longing.  Joe pictured heaven as a place of golf and ease, but then his Jesuit training from St. X kicked in. He paused, got serious and reflected on Kreeft’s image of heaven;  “Where heaven is like an unborn child asking – where is the world. Earth is not outside heaven, it is heaven’s workshop, heaven’s womb. We are already a part of the heavenly body.” 

That conversation didn’t solve any world problems but its memory provides me some comfort now. Joe wasn’t just ready for this next step – he had thought about it, welcomed it, and met it with courage and wonder.   That was Joe once again leading the way for me.

Now, Joe could never quite get into C.S. Lewis despite all my best efforts – but I think he’d forgive me for taking a liberty here.  If I may paraphrase Lewis in Joe’s honor: 

“Joe’s Friendship reflects a glorious nearness to heaven itself where the multitude of the blessed increases the fruition which each of us has of our ultimate friend in God.  For every soul, seeing Him in his own way, doubtless communicates that unique vision to all the rest.  The more we thus share in friendship -  the Heavenly Bread between us - the more we shall have.”

Joe – my friend - our friendship is now virtual – You don’t have to talk …. whether we’re on the road to Chicago or crossing into eternity.  Until we share the Bread of Friendship again, I’ll carry the memory

Fantasy Football Xmas Finale

 

Wisner Family  December 2024

A Fantastic Fantasy Family and Friends Football Finale Frames 2024.  What better way to keep Sundays full of fun.  No waivers, trades or injuries required - as we are all healthy and continue to be blessed with plenty of game time. 

Jenna, Paul, Teddy and Wes (Defensive Backfield) – Teddy and Wes are no longer rookies and that backed up Jenna and Paul on defense.  Potty spring training was marginally successful which is why they remodeled their room for a new one.  Wes’s MOM cadence created many neutral zone infractions. Jenna’s Sunday cooking has made the NFL Ticket worth the investment. 

Ellen (KIcker) - Kicked up the Corporate Ladder, Ellen now can hold out for the best contract.  Her away game record during road trips for weddings, visits to friends, and ubering Susan to Akron has been unbeatable.  Plus, Pickleball Prowess Puts People in Place.  It was like a kick in the gut when Cleo, the cat, was blocked into a possible loss. Then an overtime miracle allowed Ellen to save the day. 

Susan (Quarterback) – Missing the fifth Chosen pick didn’t stop her in the draft.  Burrowing into first place Susan seems almost guaranteed to win the championship.  Susan doubled down in time and giving across three teams– Crossroads, Emmaus and Bridge.  I’ll ask a question on how to cruise into first place for next Season – maybe with an away opening game in England.

Garen (Offensive Lineman) – Seven decades and still in the game, Garen’s main offense is gaining pounds.  Can it be sitting in the chair is the problem?  His deep dive into spiritual small groups was Supercharged into Seven days in Utopia.  Fostering a new money offensive line will help protect the quarterback from social sacks and maintain security.

Podcast Play by Play – No notebook(LM) required for the Wisner activities this year. Lake Wawasee is now be traditional summer training camp for the entire team.  This year away games included AL, IN, and FL.  The home stadium gained some upgrades in garage parking, lavatories, grounds and main entrance.

Sadly, there were losses this year – too many for the Rufferee to recount.  Yet the good memories of past seasons of play can still revive the joy and new players (CAB) will give us hope. 

Regardless of your ranking this season, fans will return, championships are still a hope, and the real win is about being on a team.  Seasons come and go; the Wisner’s are grateful for another year to play with you in the Superbowl of Life.  

 

                                                

                      Merry Christmas & Happy New Year

                          “The most valuable player is the one who makes the most players valuable”

                                                                                                                                      Paintin’ Manning

                                                                                                                                                    

Heaven Board #18 Turtles all the way down

 I was sitting at the Bar in Paxton's Grill (Loveland) having lunch with J.R. and overheard a country song playing in the background.  "What a great song", I said to J.R. as we sat there.  Luckily, I have enabled the "Now Playing" feature of my Pixel 6a Android Phone and saw "Turtles all the way Down" by Sturgill Simpson.  

As you may (or may not) know I am a "melody guy" (vs lyrics) - see "Melody vs Lyrics".  So as soon as I got home I decided to look up the lyrics to determine was there subconsciously another reason (other than the melody, instrumentals, cadence or harmony) that the song appealed to me at the moment.

There must have been 3-5 God winks going on. Enough to make this Heaven Board #18! 

 #1 "But I swear that God is there every time I glare into the eyes of my best friend"

#2 "Love's the only thing that every saved my life".    

#3 "Turtles all the way Down" with infinite regress of the mythology of a World Turtle.

Wikipedia - Turtles all the way Down

#4 The spiritual/mystic or medical mystery of psilocybin and DMT?  

#5 The second nudge phone call from S.F. for joining the Men's Walk to Emmaus #112 while I was constructing this blog

#6 Re-Reading from 2010 "The Six Secrets you must Discover before you Die" by John Izzo  "Be Love"!

I enjoy going down the research "rabbit hole" (as R.M. described it) and found the 10 year anniversary commentary by Simpson and Uhelski about the song and video from 2014.  

"To appease lazy music journalists, I've always said this song was about drugs.  It actually came from recreational reading "DMT: The Spirit Molecule" by Rick Strassman and the Omega Point Theory by Pierre Teilhard de Chardin.  The video has absolutely nothing to do with the song, which doesn't matter since nobody really ever knew what the song was about.  It's just four guys pretending to play with Electric Sheep Screensaver graphics overlaid on the performance"   Sturgill Simpson

Here are the complete lyrics:

Turtles All the Way Down

Song by

Sturgill Simpson

Introducing "Metamodern Sounds in Country Music"

I've seen Jesus play with flames in a lake of fire that I was standing in
Met the devil in Seattle and spent 9 months inside the lions' den
Met Buddha yet another time
He showed me a glowing light within
But I swear that God is there
Every time I glare into the eyes of my best friend

Says my son, it's all been done
Someday you're gonna wake up old and gray
So go and try to have some fun showing warmth to everyone
You meet and greet and cheat along the way

There's a gateway in our minds
That leads somewhere out there far beyond this plane
Where reptile aliens made of light cut you open and pull out all your pain
Tell me how you make illegal something that we all make in our brain
Some say you might go crazy
Then again, it might make you go sane

Every time I take a look inside inside that old and fabled book
I'm blinded and reminded of the pain caused by some old man in the sky
Marijuana, LSD, psilocybin, and DMT, they all changed the way I see
Love's the only thing that ever saved my life

So don't waste your mind on nursery rhymes
And fairy tales of blood and wine
It's turtles all the way down the line
So to each their own 'til we go home
To other realms our souls must roam
To and through the myth that we all call space and time

Election - Humility not Hubris

 This morning Donald Trump has won the 2024 Presidential Election.  About 71.8 million voted for Donald Trump and 66.9 million for Kamala Harris in the popular vote with final votes still to be counted.  

Today's Wed 7:15BC group who are studying "Gossip - 10 Pathways to Eliminate it from your Life and Transform your Soul" by Lori Palatnik had a "God wink" discussion on the Chapter 11 - "Avoid Envy and Arrogance" that morphed into a complete discussion about Pride and Humility.

A.S. said it best - "Especially today we need humility not hubris!"

Another God Wink occurred in my mid-morning devotional from the Ligonier October Monthly TableTalkMagazine.com - Day 3 "Gentle and Reasonable Wisdom (James 3:17b).

Matthew Henry comments, gentleness means "not standing upon extreme right in matters of property; not saying or doing any thing rigorous in points of censure; not being furious about opinions, urging our own beyond their weight nor theirs who oppose us beyond their intention; not being rude and overbearing in conversation, [or social media - my words], nor harsh and cruel in temper."

Both parties promoted Common Sense.  Let's change that to Gentle and Reasonable Wisdom!

Believing Blogs

There are more reported breakthrough cases of COVID as the Delta variant explodes across the USA.  The CDC no longer tracks breakthrough cases instead focusing on breakthrough hospitalizations and deaths.  Unfortunately this data is highly dependent on state reporting with significant gaps and inconsitent reporting (including the inability to match vaccination data with other health outcome data).  

Ohio began diligently tracking and transparently reporting breakthrough cases beginning August 11, 2021.  There is a compelling difference between the fully vaccinated population vs unvaccinated/partially vaccinated for hospitalizations and deaths for about one month of data reporting.  

Total Hospitalizations 8/11/2021 to 9/20/2021 in Ohio were 6,825 with 5,968 Unvaccinated or Patiallly Vaccinated and 449 Fully Vaccinated and 408 Unknown.  

Total Deaths 8/11/2021 to 9/20/2021 in Ohio  were 685 with 637 Unvaccinated or Partially Vaccinated and 30 Fully Vaccinated and 18 Unknown.

The data above is called observational data vs what Statisticians (and the FDA) prefer which is randomized controlled clinical trials which reveal many of the hidden variables. The temptation of observational data and percentages is to attribute the dramatic difference of both hospitalizations and deaths solely on the basis  of one correlated variable -  "fully" vaccinated.  Statistically this is letting one highly correlated variabe "prove" causation.  

Let me cite an example in epidemiology -  A 1991 an observational study hailed the Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) treating symptoms associated with menopause might reduce Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) risk.  But later RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED studies (see Lawlor et. al) , including the large-scale Women's Health Initiative, revealed either a negative relationship or a statistically insignificant one, between HRT and CHD. 

What if I replaced the words .... Unvaccinated and Vaccinated with  excessive BMI (Body Mass Index) and non excessive BMI?   Would that cause you to begin to diet?  I would - what's the harm.  Thus many would take the vaccine based on the same logic.  But that does not "prove" the causation.  

Let me make one final point -   I had a mild case of COVID on December 7th 2020 that did not require hospitalization without vaccination.   Today Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan was reported to be fully vaccinated with a mild case of COVID.   "Today, I tested positive for COVID-19. While I'm currently experiencing mild symptoms, I'm grateful to have the protection of a safe and effective vaccine — and I know without it, this illness could be much, much worse," Ryan said. 

How does Ryan have 95% confidence that the vaccine he took attributed all the benefits to his mild symptoms.  His infection could have been exactly like millions of positive COVID cases prior to any vaccination available (like mine).

I'm not suggesting these vaccines are not effective.  We have Randomized Controlled clinical trial data showing efficacy.  However after unblinding these trials and relaxing the full clinical trial timelines, and follow-on studies there is chance we will never know the long term risks and rewards.   

What's the old adage with my addendum:  "Believe nothing you hear and only half of what you see"  ...... and believe the opposite of what you read in someone's blog.  

Infinite Boosters

I continue to daily post in my own personal spreadsheet COVID statistics and read as quickly as I can the various medical study reports.  Nearly all these reports are available prior to any peer review process and picked up by the media for purposes of publishing COVID - PORN.  I will self admit I am addicted to all this COVID -PORN no different from the individual red state or blue state political addict is to watching Fox News or MSNBC.  

However -  I am beginning to see some light into the reasonable arguments about natural immunity, lack of randomized trials, even principled and ethical regulators who will not be pressured, bullied, or abandon the proven methods and analysis expected by (and taught for years) scientists, academics and experts trained in the scientific principle. 

During this COVID crisis I've come to love listening/viewing  ZDogg's point of view and interviews with experts.  It has helped form my opinions about this crisis and possibly reinforced some of my objections to the vaccination arguments that are statistically in error or abused.  

The controversy about the booster shot from Pfizer shows how fear, politics, time pressure, greed, and every other human emotional response can reveal the worst in our behaviors and relationships.  The human condition is the need to be right, to be affirmed by others, and.... to prove others they are wrong.  Being Right has become the most important outcome - beyond even survival.  

Several adages come to mind -   "Don't cut your nose to spite your face"; "Whether you are Dead Right or Dead Wrong... You're still Dead";   "Add injury to insult"; "The early bird contracts the Worms"; "Add salt to the injury";  "Don't dig in your heels only to discover you can't walk".

Herd Immunity rings too closely to the term Mob Mentality.  Democracy unchecked makes the Mob "Right".  Social media manufactures what is "Heard" into the Herd.  Simpson's Paradox makes everyone statistically right.

The Grandfather Club

 What a inexcusable oversight -  the birth of Theodore Lee Robinson in April.  This inducted me into the Grandparents Club and reminded me of A.M.'s wisdom 10+ years ago.   I was in my 50's and developing my "Decade Planning Document" along with a Vistage Presentation on Longevity.   Since my timeline of family life events was about 10 years behind A.M. and others, I asked the question -"What one lesson (words of wisdom) of your last decade would you share for me as I embark into my 60's?    I remember A.M.'s response distinctly:  "I totally underestimated the Grandfather thing!".  

My first unsupervised babysitting of Teddy was Wednesday evening as Paul was subbing for me at tennis.  The memories caring for Jenna and Ellen as infants flooded into my mind as I was revisiting the football hold, the diaper techniques, burping, rocking and keeping calm in the face of crying.  The hour and half reminded me of how exhausting newborn's can be.   The difference as a Grandfather - the handoff to the Mom :)

This weekend I will miss the Wells Family Reunion which yearly honors the generations.  Dad and Aunt Revae (now 105) will be spotlighted.  The memories of prior generations are the foundations for the new generation to utilize in stewarding forward.  Teddy now enters the world with hope and joy.  The Grandfather club starts the process of passing the memory baton.

New Time and Space - Xmas 2020

 

Wisner Family (et al) December 2020

As the 202^nd decade descends, we welcome its close.  After three consecutive years visiting ICU rooms, we look forward to the end of COVID-19 and the hope of NEW TIME and SPACE for the next decade – 01-01-2021.   

 

Ellen (NEW JOB) – Now holds the Cum Laude College GPA family record along with the shortest Graduation ceremony in history.  She can now Escape from college homework into calling Fidelity Investments her center of Serious(7) Studies.  Ellen fought like a Tiger for savings for a Jeep – I guess she will settle for the moon.

 

Jenna and Paul Robinson (NEW LIFE) – Making room for new life is not easy. Olfactory odors overwhelmed ownership.  But a new sunroom, bathroom, and emerging nursery, created the necessary diversion and it seems the future is in full swing.   SO FAr the Councilrock offsite storage solution is working. 

 

Susan – (NEW SKILLS) – Nothing to conceal in her dislike about the election results, Susan refused this year to carry any virus and scooted COVID-19 free this year.  Adding Drug Free clients to her business allowed a new view from her desk.  With the deep pockets of Sports Club investments and grocery errand expeditions, Alexa announced the “Best Mom in the World” – as one who provides daily nutritional meals on wheels. 

 

Garen – (NEW HEALTH) – His new COVID-10lb diet let Garen ZOOM down to his college weight.  Now that he is more than halfway to 70, he finally grew the TV size beyond his height and age.  Competing with Amazon, his Christian Man delivery route was supplemented with his own prime series.  Hiding in his own basement, the outdoor patio heater extends his Man Cave activities. 

 

It was a grave day when Cincinnati lost its Painters, but friendship is an absolute truth despite a Boston Illegal gathering.  Even with cancellations of the Rockies and Hilton Head, the family squeezed in travel to KS, NV, NY, and FL.  But ten months of shelter in place gave us full understanding of like inside invisible fences and COVID restricted Nursing Homes. 

 

Susan and I are blessed to have a parent each to honor and protect – DNA history of good physical and spiritual well-being.  Falls are hard but calls are heard.  The COVID-19 veil clouds our physical connections with family and friends.  Even so, the bonds of relationships are eternal regardless of time and space. 

 

  Merry Christmas and

       Happy New Year

“Time and Space are not conditions in which we live,

but modes by which we think.”      Albert Einstein

Emotional Volatility

I am rapidly getting weary (as many in the USA are) with shelter-in-place; gradual reopening; social distancing; masking; and virtual meetings.   While I have poked my head out of the turtle shell with meetings outside with friends; doubles tennis; and even social distancing/masking small group and worship activities;  I am tired of the constant news and conversations about COVID-19.  My time at home is now approaching the 100th day.

I continue to monitor with my own statistical model the various World, USA, State and Local data.  Even know the number of cases in my zip code (25) with hospitalizations (7) and deaths (under 3). The numbers are getting large which contributes to smaller growth rates. 

The USA stock market seems to be in the twilight zone with a V shaped recovery, sprinkled with radical emotional volatility based on news of the day.  If my attention to the market and renewed trading activity is any indication of a trend then there are lots of people speculating and creating volatility with zero commission costs of "nervous energy ".   My prior Financial Advisor (T.A.) said it best - "Nervous energy is one of the greatest destroyers of wealth".

The recent outrage of George Floyd's death with demonstrations, protests, and autonomous zone anarchy I believe escalated as a result of the rapid growth in emotional stress associated with COVID-19 and the shut down of the economy.  Oh.... stir in a dose of polarized red state and blue state political fear of the next election and you get a perfect storm of emotional pressure ready to blow up. 

What's the vaccine for emotional volatility?   Find what eliminates your nervous energy.

https://listenforjoy.com/collections/well-loved-images/products/deep-breath

Blame Game

Now the escalating viral gossip circulating the internet and news media is the attempt to find the "cause" of the COVID-19 crisis. The blame game is a natural human tendency - especially when it comes to a virus.   So often when we get the flu we try to determine the cause - or really who gave it to you.  In fact the whole discussion and ramp up for tracing mechanisms is one of the critical needs for relaxing the shelter-in-place to properly quarantine those individuals at risk of spreading the virus.

Tracing automatically reinforces the historical look back at who or where was the first incident.  It was fascinating to listen to the lineage of the Santa Clara County Tracing: 

The conspiracy theories about the source of the virus in Wuhan China and whether it was caused by a mistake in the lab or in the wet market will rage on.  Blaming the Chinese for this virus would be like blaming the USA (now thinking the Spanish Flu started in Kansas) for the start and spread of the Spanish Flu.   What gain comes from blaming anyone for the crisis?

Yes there is always a benefit to understanding a cause if it provides a benefit of avoid future problems.  However when the search for a cause is primarily to "damn" the source and to redirect the attention away from solving the problem while at the same time washing your hands from responsibility of current actions - then looking for the cause is a waste of precious time and resources that can be applied to solving the problem.

Does naming "Patient ZERO" help?  Should we damn that person?  Should we damn wet markets?  Should we damn the Chinese? 

"He who is without sin, cast the first stone"

Lessons of History

"Those who cannot learn from History are doomed to repeat it"  was stated by George Santayana and ironically lived during the Spanish Flu and was from Spain (the country that inherited the name for the tragic Spanish Flu that likely started in Kansas).

I think the country (and possibly the world) might be experiencing deja vu on this COVID-19 pandemic.   Read some of the quotes from the Smithsonian article about the Spanish Flu:

By July [1918] it didn’t seem to matter. As a U.S. Army medical bulletin reported from France, the “epidemic is about at an end...and has been throughout of a benign type.” A British medical journal stated flatly that influenza “has completely disappeared.”

SEPT 1918 The second wave had begun. -  Across the country, public officials were lying. U.S. Surgeon General Rupert Blue said, “There is no cause for alarm if precautions are observed.” New York City’s public health director declared “other bronchial diseases and not the so-called Spanish influenza...[caused] the illness of the majority of persons who were reported ill with influenza.” The Los Angeles public health chief said, “If ordinary precautions are observed there is no cause for alarm.” Now the head of the Army’s communicable disease division, he jotted down his private fear: “If the epidemic continues its mathematical rate of acceleration, civilization could easily disappear...from the face of the earth within a matter of a few more weeks.”  Then, as suddenly as it came, influenza seemed to disappear. It had burned through the available fuel in a given community. An undercurrent of unease remained, but aided by the euphoria accompanying the end of the war, traffic returned to streets, schools and businesses reopened, society returned to normal.

A third wave followed in January 1919, ending in the spring. This was lethal by any standard except the second wave ……   After that third wave, the 1918 virus did not go away, but it did lose its extraordinary lethality, partly because many human immune systems now recognized it and partly because it lost the ability to easily invade the lungs. No longer a bloodthirsty murderer, it evolved into a seasonal influenza.  Another question concerns who died. Even though the death toll was historic, most people who were infected by the pandemic virus survived; in the developed world, the overall mortality was about 2 percent. 

Source:  https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/

Looking further into the politics of the time, the political fight over entry into WW I preceded the virus and I'm sure Woodrow Wilson became distained for his actions at that time (both War and Pandemic).   

J.P. wondered what level of deaths in the US would justify praise for the state and federal response?  Until the election is over, and we are out of economic hardship, the cacophony of BOTH praise and criticism will be deafening.  Once that time fades in our memory, it will be sounds of silence with another lesson of history forgotten for a more enlightened generation to ignore.  

Jesus Christ could have come down and halted the virus on Easter and there would still be critics saying he arrived on the scene late :)

Coronvirus Lockdown Remorse

To reopen or not to reopen - that is the media question of the day.

Already doubt is setting into the minds of those taking swift lockdown measures.   It's like "Coronavirus lockdown remorse" - as cabin fever sets in and economic malaise appears on retirement savings statements.  The DNA of the USA is our risk taking entrepreneurs and they (like me) have the temptation to measure the costs and benefits of this crisis.  Then using the utilitarian philosophical model of the greatest good as measured in total utility we can make the logical Spock like decision.   But how does this apply in human life. 

Spock in his final exchange with Captain Kirk gasps  "The needs of the many......" and Kirk finishes for him "outweigh the needs of the few". 

How appropriate that J.P. and I on Saturday re-watched Michael Sandel's  first four lectures from his book "Justice - What's the Right Thing to Do?"

You can add to this philosophical debate the attempt to allocate money to those in pain and you can see why Congress can't agree on a stimulus package.  Re-read the quote as you reflect on OPEC's fight about production of oil allocated among the Saudis and Russians. Measuring utility will always create disagreements.   

How appropriate that my Bible devotional today was Matthew 16:26  "For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world and forfeits his soul?  Or what shall a man give in return for his soul?"

What happens when you reverse the quote -  "The needs of the few, outweigh the needs of the many" - suddenly you enter the world of human rights - the very soul that God created.  There is no measurement of human life or the soul - it is infinite. Nothing finite can be given for something of infinite value.

When worldly crisis and suffering tests our resolve - it is the mathematics of the many weighed against the few that will measure our humanity - and determine the return for our soul.





 

Death provides Life

Susan and I just finished a walk with the dogs and then a Bird Scooter cruise around the neighborhood. It is a chilly but sunny Sunday morning when most are still sleeping evidenced by the Sunday Cincinnati Enquirer and NY Times awaiting proper pickup at the each of the driveway entrances.  There will be plenty of people throughout the USA feeling a bit of cabin fever today.

R.M. emailed me a set of beautiful pictures from his walk titled "Serenity and Beauty". The two portraits that struck my eye with beautiful contrast were the black and white and full color photographs of large-leafed waterleaves sending out their basal leaves. 

Courtesy of Robert Miller - 3/19/2020 

"Our Pileated Woodpeckers continue to peck away at a large tree snag.  Death provides life. The trunks of fallen and decaying trees supply nutrients to a variety of mosses and lichens.  Cooperation reigns."  R.M portrays.

Appropriate to the crisis we are experiencing, we have the choice of viewing the events in either black and white or the full vibrancy of color that beauty reveals.  Death provides life - Cooperation reigns.

There will be more death than we desire from this virus and how well we cooperate will be a large determinant of the amount of death that will result.  This death will provide life in many mysterious ways.  New light (life) and color will emerge. Both pictures have beauty!

"Mankind can make progress in the pursuit of Truth. Mankind can also make progress in the sphere of Goodness, advancing from less to more perfect political, social, and economic institutions or arrangements.  But there is no possibility of progress in the sphere of Beauty."  - Mortimer J. Alder "Six Great Ideas".

Only the creator of Beauty can reveal the mystery in "Death provides Life".

New Normal?

Saturday starts a weekend of what may be a "New Normal" for many in the USA.  Several days ago I read the Washington Post article "Coronavirus will radically alter the US".  In that article was the following graph

 

 

Referencing the 1918 Spanish flu, we can expect a second wave of this virus and should begin now to prepare for various scenarios from the best to the worst. 

How can the Investment community prepare their expectations from the best to the worst.  Yet another chart to reference.  This appeared from M.L. (R.M.'s friend) in her firm's newsletter to her clients:

US Financial Services LLC  (973) 882 3600

It's time to take a deep breath and begin planning life in a "New Normal". Some of our leaders have been criticized for calmly saying that "this too shall pass". There is a balance of avoiding panic and preventing complacency needed as we problem solve around this virus.  As my brother (D'Lane) said to me when I was nursing my Dad back from his fall in ICU - "One step at a time".

 

My homegrown spreadsheet model of the growth numbers - World, USA, Ohio still shows greater than 30% growth with a hospitalization between 12% and 25% and no peak in sight.  We are still climbing the rollercoaster with the hope of quickly getting to the top as our fear mounts.  What a relief it will be when we start down the hill!!!

 

How appropriate we want to flatten the virus curve as it heads to the peak.  The faster we flatten it the quicker that same curve (flipped in reverse) will let the stock market bottom. 

 

. 

 

 

 



Cocooning

The effect of globalization is front and center during this perfect storm of Corona Virus Pandemic, Oil fights, and globally fluid capital markets.  The only industry benefiting from this panic is likely the 24 hour news.  

The S&P is down 30% in a matter of days.  Travel and Entertainment is locked down in a matter of days also.  It demonstrates how fragile the feeling of security can be - emotionally, financially, physically, and …. for some spiritually.  As Warren Buffet says - "You never know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out".   

I'm amazed at the distribution of attitudes about the rapid response by our Federal and State leaders.  The challenge of absorbing the various media bias (including social media) and the lack of understanding of statistics and numbers has contributed to both extremes of fear and indifference.  

Personally this has affected me in the cancellation of my trip to visit Dad in the Nursing home.  Susan and the girls also cancelled their spring break vacation to Arizona.  On the financial side - like others net worth (on paper) drops at least 20%.  Aside from the personal social distancing, this feels eerily like the great recession of 2007 and 2008.  Since my blogging only started in August 2009, only my manual journals (Spiritual and Financial) have any measure of my emotions and actions at that time.

Over the weekend, I decided to create my own forecast using the numbers from the World Health Organization situation reports.  In our data hungry world the numbers are suspect from even this source.  The two most important numbers are the daily rate of growth in new cases and the rate of growth in recoveries (and by default deaths).  Once again the human mind just has difficulty understanding the power of growth (April 16, 2012 Growth and Patience) and patience.  T.A. in our Vistage meeting talked about the dangers of nervous energy - on health, finances and relationships.  This time is no exception -  it is a time for patience and careful reflection. 

If this virus is growing at 30% daily (doubles about every 3 days) in USA (which is about what the W.H.O. shows since 3/1/2020) and the hospitalization rate is 20% of cases then we run out of hospital bed in the USA by about 4/13/2020 (assuming a discharge rate of prior admissions every 7 days).  The CNBC news states the doubling rate is every 6 days (about a 12% growth rate) and using that assumption my cryptic spreadsheet models a run out of beds by 5/21/2020.  That's not much to be encouraged about.  

Now the good news - if we can trust the Chinese Data -  the exponential curve of new cases peaks at about 16 - 24 days (but very dependent of population diligence in distancing).

This data seems to be consistent with the South Korean numbers (about 26 days) as it potentially is peaking.  The next few days will be critical to watch.

In Ohio there are 37 cases identified and 350 in testing.  The real answer about the risk of the virus is a local issue and community response.  For me - I'm cocooning.

Christmas ecard 2019

   Wisner Family (et al) December 2019

"May His Blessings light your way and bring joy to your hearts this Christmas"

Blue Mountain e-card

It was a year of medical matters – major malaise, mishap, Medicare mystery and DM- Diabetes mellitus.  Yet, even with physical and spiritual attacks, we relied on faith, family and friends to emerge Brave, Bravely, Bold and Fearless this year.   Read on:

Ellen (BRAVE) – The i-fly flight didn’t cause shortness of breath but convinced Ellen she would ignore Dad’s advice and become parachute “worthy”.  Luckily she will stay in the plane when she drops into see D’Lane and Ann in Scottsdale.  Crossfit groupies felt a partial identity loss when Ellen accepted an internship at the Sports Mall. Just three semesters from early graduation at U.C. the key question is will her Finance degree stabilize or will she Master something else?

Jenna and Paul Robinson (BRAVELY) – “I see you” is not a juvenile game when blood sugars are high.  Jenna is now attached to the medical device industry in addition to her excellent patient care at Christ Hospital.  Paul steadies the Robinson/Wisner roots by intertwining Emmaus Walk #103 with a USI promotion.  BRAVELY this pair takes on the challenge of T1D management even with auction accidents, Dexcom outages, and healthcare enrollment math.

Susan – (BOLD) – Nothing this year was easy – not even Emmaus Walk #123.  Drains, phones and falls, oh brother it was a challenge!  She reluctantly accepts no more Lipp and remained silent at the Abbey using her spiritual backup to fight Screwtape’s attacks.  Even the Tahoe’s have blind spots.  Her BOLD motherly protection instincts have combated the obstacles that medicine can’t solve. 

Garen – (FEARLESS) – A man without fear, Garen needed to re-subscribe in several areas.  He hit the oil jackpot only to tie for second place (in a field of three) for the Jefferson Award.  Testing his own blood for three months made him wonder How God Makes Men.  Sixty-five years forced him back into medical money mania – code named IRMAA.  Needing time to research Medicare, he dropped Miami Mock Recruiting to sign up for the ILR (Miami Institute of Learning in Retirement). Garen chose Lord Byron’s Drug Plan Z – “Always laugh when you can – its cheap medicine.”

The family zipped down to Austin for Dayna and Sam’s wedding and travel this year was exclusively concentrated on family affairs (Naples, Akron, Derby, Scottsdale, Chautauqua).  May we know that “family first” is an important prescription..

The Grinch of 2019 has not dried up our spirit.   We are so grateful for our family and friends support.

Love is the antidote to suffering. We pray that the medicine of Christ will heal your spirit and put joy in your heart also.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

“A joyful heart is good medicine, but a crushed spirit dries up the bones”.   Proverbs 17:22

Screwtape Letters Revisited

Last night Susan and I attended the performance of Screwtape Letters by the Fellowship for Performing Arts.  Theatre from a Christian worldview that engages a diverse audience was worthy of consideration for gifting.  It was about 6 years ago that we attended the Great Divorce by the same group and we both hope to see C.S. Lewis on stage: The Most Reluctant Convert when it comes to Cincinnati.

Most enjoyable was hearing from Max McClean the actor and founder of the Fellowship for Performing Arts.  His question and answer postlude was enlightening.  When asked about the humor in the performance his quote (which I will butcher) was that "the laughter of people allows the truth to enter their open mouths".

The number of performances that FPA does at college campuses creates ministry of Christian nudges for a broad audience of students and particularly for those aspiring to enter the field of theatre.  What a wonderful way to seed the very souls of individuals that may never have been exposed to the great religious philosophers.

I think the plays are more meaningful for those who have read the C.S. Lewis books. It was surprising the number of people who raised their hands when asked who had not read Screwtape Letters.

C.S. Lewis said "I can't imagine a man really enjoying a book and reading it only once".  Watching Screwtape Letters will cause me to read it for the third time.

https://fpatheatre.com/

National Day of Prayer

It was a small gathering at Stephen Field Bicentennial Monument for the National Day of Prayer this morning.   The Men of Armstrong UMC showed up to add our prayers and support to this traditional day.  My memory fades but I believe Fred and Lois Owlett encouraged a prayer vigil at the Old Chapel for the entire day.  I also remember attending prayer breakfasts downtown around this time also.

The U.S. is an outlier according to the Pew Research Center:

I remember reading Will and Ariel Durant's book The Lessons of History -  in Chapter VII (Religion and History) they end the chapter (paraphrased) - as long as there is poverty, religion will flourish.  Clearly Will and Ariel felt History did not support a belief in a "personal" God and  therefore the need to pray: 

“Does history support a belief in God? If by God we mean not the creative vitality of nature but a supreme being intelligent and benevolent, the answer must be a reluctant negative.”

—Will & Ariel Durant, The Lessons of History (1968)   see ffrf.org 

Yet - why does the majority of the world pray?  Why is hope embedded into the soul of human nature?  Conversely why does wealth correlate inversely with prayer?   

I like Patrick Morley's quote in his book "How GOD makes Men:  "Suffering compels us to seek the God that success makes us think we don't need"     Wealth is the illusion of independence from GOD yet that very distance extinguishes the very significance the heart yearns to achieve. 

Numbers Matter

Thomas Piketty's book "Capital in the Twenty-First Century is only 685 pages (200 pages less than Wolff's).  It is exactly why Introductions and Conclusions are the best starting points for determining whether to even fan through the pages or even look at the table of contents.

What fun for an latent Economist/Mathematician/Statistician to see after chart of empirical data captured from best available historical sources.  However a sample size of less than 300 years is a difficult foundation to theorize mathematical/economic premises.  Piketty uses the intuitive r>g (return on capital greater than rate of growth of income/output) to conclude that divergence in inequality of wealth will likely outpace convergence.

I did enjoy Piketty's justification for a bias to the French data (vs USA) based on lower population growth and other factors.  Also entertaining was his comment about the discipline of economics in "childish passion for mathematics and for purely theoretical and often highly ideological speculation, at the expense of historical research and collaboration with the other social sciences."   I admit in my studies, I hated the expression "with all other things being equal".

It's always interesting to read the last words.  Usually it ends up being what the author really wants you to understand.

"Yet is seem to me that all social scientists, all journalists and commentators, all activists in the unions and in politics of whatever stripe, an especially all citizens should take a serious interest in money, its measurement, the facts surrounding it, and its history.  Those who have a lot of it never fail to defend their interests.  Refusing to deal with numbers rarely serves the interests of the least well-off,"

In my Vistage 2011 presentation on Risk/Luck I said "Manage your investments or they will Damage you".  It was my way of saying if you don't pay attention to your money your interests will not be served. 

"Manage your money,  or it will manage you"