New Normal?

Saturday starts a weekend of what may be a "New Normal" for many in the USA.  Several days ago I read the Washington Post article "Coronavirus will radically alter the US".  In that article was the following graph

 

 

Referencing the 1918 Spanish flu, we can expect a second wave of this virus and should begin now to prepare for various scenarios from the best to the worst. 

How can the Investment community prepare their expectations from the best to the worst.  Yet another chart to reference.  This appeared from M.L. (R.M.'s friend) in her firm's newsletter to her clients:

US Financial Services LLC  (973) 882 3600

It's time to take a deep breath and begin planning life in a "New Normal". Some of our leaders have been criticized for calmly saying that "this too shall pass". There is a balance of avoiding panic and preventing complacency needed as we problem solve around this virus.  As my brother (D'Lane) said to me when I was nursing my Dad back from his fall in ICU - "One step at a time".

 

My homegrown spreadsheet model of the growth numbers - World, USA, Ohio still shows greater than 30% growth with a hospitalization between 12% and 25% and no peak in sight.  We are still climbing the rollercoaster with the hope of quickly getting to the top as our fear mounts.  What a relief it will be when we start down the hill!!!

 

How appropriate we want to flatten the virus curve as it heads to the peak.  The faster we flatten it the quicker that same curve (flipped in reverse) will let the stock market bottom. 

 

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