Is the Light at the......

Today as I arose to go to my office for the last time until the Ohio lockdown is lifted, I looked out our master bedroom window an saw complete blackness.   A normal morning would see the twinkling lights of Milford, Terrace Park, Newtown and the commercial areas in-between. Granted the eerie fog was cloaking the distant lighting, but I can't remember a morning when it was completely dark.

Yet the sun rose and the light emerges.  But in the tunnel of the virus contagion and economic panic each day brings more fear and darkness into our minds.  

K.C. sent me an interesting site to add to my data sources for modeling Worldometer. Finally, I discovered a chart worth pondering:

The beginning tunnel - Death rate 41.8% vs Recovery Rate 58.2  -  very scary.   Today's opening - Death rate 12.93% and Recovery rate 87.07%  - much more comforting.   But it is a moving target day by day.   The concern is the two curves are not flat yet AND..... only 32% of the known cases have outcomes.  That is because it can take 24 days (that is my guess at a number)  to determine an actual outcome.   

Now - for the higher math.  The key to any exponential chart is to view the logarithmic chart which converts an exponential chart to linear view.  Again bad news - the line is not yet straight to yield a rate of change that is consistent.  We were feeling good from 1 to 3, but now the new trend is 4. 

Each day brings new light to new data but no visibility to the future.  But as long as there is light there is hope.