Monday, June 30, 2025
Jingle EarWorm
Saturday, August 21, 2021
Nevermind the Time
Monday, August 9, 2021
Citizen Data Scientists
A. S. who has put up with my constant emails and has been my outlet for my statistical skepticism sent me an interesting story on how the CDC came to study the Provincetown Mass. COVID cluster infection of the fully vaccinated. In fact Michael Donnelly launched his own COVIDoutlook.info website.
Now I don't feel so bad about the time I daily spend updating my own COVID Data Model Spreadsheet and blogging about the misinformation or spin doctoring statistics. I just finished reading the book "Extra Life: A Short History of Living Longer" by Steven Johnson (also a CET documentary). In 1866 the Citizen Data Scientist -William Farr discovers the Cholera outbreak in London is due to one infected water source and proves the transmission method. His charts are worthy of framing.
When the government, institutions, media and mob attempt to discredit the individual voices skeptics as crazy misinformation pundits we discourage the very citizenship voice of discovery needed to improve the science.
Sunday, July 18, 2021
Tweet it Through the Grapevine
I continue to search diligently for data to support this claim - 'Pandemic of the Unvaccinated': CDC Chief Says 97% of US Hospitalizations Didn't Get COVID-19 Shots. from the Sputnik News - by Morgan Artyukhina.
The CDC Chief did say... "This is BECOMING thePandemic of the Unvaccinated" but what about the 97% statistic about hospitalizations?????
Naturally I searched the body of this article for hyperlinks to the data. only to discover it was taken froma young recent graduate of the University of Maryland who reported in the Baltimore Sun: "Of the nearly 100 people who died of COVID-19 in Maryland last month, all were not vaccinated against the disease, state health officials say. In addition, 95% of newly infected people in Maryland and 93% of those requiring hospitalization were unvaccinated, according to a tweet from Mike Ricci, spokesman fro Gov. Larry Hogan."
So where is the 97%????? And is this where we get acurate data .... according to a tweet????
Now the Surgeon General is worried about the mis-information with a 22 page report casting doubt upon the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine. But what about the reverse - the unsubstantiated statistics about death and hospitalizations in context of the vaccine virallly reported through various news organizations on-line publishing.
I have searched the CDC traking database for any statistics regarding cases, hospitalizations and deaths for Covid suvivors, unvacinnated individuals, those with antibodies, and vaccinnated (by vaccine type). I can find nothing beyond early studies of healthcare workers.
I could find no where that the CDC Chief actually said 97% of US Hospitalizations didn't get COVID-19 shots. And..... a young journalist decides to report a tweeted statistic of 95% with no further research. And.... what precise reporting "nearly 100 people who died" - was it 100 or not? Was it 99 or 98 let's not round the numbers. And then another journalist uses the Baltimore Sun article and changes the statistic to 97%.
What we have here is "Grapevine" tweet based reporting with editorial license in rounding.
Addendum 1:59pm: I have found a case of accurate and decent reporting around the statistic 97%. Published in the Seattle Times - June 5th 2021 "The 'two societies': 97% of new COVID cases are among people who haven't gotten the shots" reported by Danny Westneat. They actually crossreferenced cases with vaccination databases. However there is a slight flaw in analysis since "fully vaccinated (14 days after second shot) could be a stringent criteria and it wasn't until May 15th the vaccine was available for anyone under 16 (consequently the data was not recast for the correct population age demographic).
Addendum #2 2:44pm Also remember - thie Seattle Times article is positive COVID-19 cases - not hospitalizations or deaths. Nor would it (or could it) apply to asymptomatic cases. Also could vaccinated population do more masking, social distancing, generally be more healthy (socially economically priviledged ) , and health conscious?
Addendum #3 2:56pm Look carefully at the prior blog and UK data. Of the 53K "linked" positive Delta Variant Cases - 4,087 were vaccinated "fully" which is 7.69% of the positive cases (or 92.3% of new cases were not "fully vaccinated"). Yet.... there were 20 vaccinated of the 73 total deaths --- 35.6% of the deaths were vaccinated individuals. Hmmm........ Which statistic do you think they are reporting.
Addendum #4 6:15pn Just read a Newsweek/MSN report stating: " On Sunday, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy said that nearly all of COVID-19 deaths - or 99.5 percent - are happening among unvaccinated people." Where is the data for that statistic? Once again a quote from the Surgeon General with no checking - no supporting data. Where is the investigating journalism in that?
Tuesday, August 4, 2020
DESERVED or DESIRED
Monday, June 29, 2020
Boston Legal #20 - Fellowship of the Rings
An interesting topic came to the surface about family heirlooms - the stuff that carries generational memories. It caused me to document the history of a cosmetic costume jewelry ring that my Grandmother wanted her descendants to have. It was a nugget ruby glass ring in a bezel setting with a yellow gold ornamental filigree setting.
It was given to my Grandmother by Vingie E. Roe (a cousin of my Grandfather). Vingie E. Roe was the granddaughter of Cyrenus Frank Castanien and considered an accomplished American novelist and screenwriter (for B&W silent movies). She wrote more than 30 novels, mostly Westerns "with a feminist twist". I suspect Vingie (19 years older than Grandmother) was looked on as the "rich and famous" and connected to Hollywood. When my Grandparents took a vacation and drove from Oklahoma to California (in the 40's) they stopped by to see Vingie Roe. Vingie gave the ring to Grandmother out of kindness and as a trip memory.
Susan like the design of the ring and I decided to have a copy made for her to wear. Coincidentally the copied ring was given to Susan - Christmas 2001 which was the opening of the movie "The Fellowship of the Ring.
There are actually 4 more copies so that each granddaughter (should they like it also) could have a ring just like the original. Hence the family heirloom might pass through yet another generation.
Great ideas and discussions come from the fellowship of the Boston Legal trio. This incented me to find the rings - document the story and research the history of the movement of the ring.
How interesting it would be if Rings could Sing their story.
Thursday, May 21, 2020
Boston Illegal #19
Once the spouses heard about this they decided to have their Boston Illegal on the front patio. The need for physical social interaction is clearly a mandatory emotional need. The movie Castaway with Tom Hanks remains one of my favorite movies as it shows the willingness to risk death for relationship connectiveness.
It does not surprise me that the USA is opening up and emotions are riding high between the extroverts and introverts. Suddenly a new education about natural rights and freedoms become the day to day discussions about the shelter-in-place orders and pending orders about masks and gloves.
J.P. had sent me a link to Randy Barnett's discussion about Individual Liberty in a Pandemic. Little did I understand the overriding weight of my freedom as defined by the Ohio Constitution (vs the Federal Constitution). I have never read the Ohio Constitution!
No movie for this Boston Legal - however I decided to post facto watch one as the suggested homework - Charlton Heston in "The Omega Man" (1971). Little did I realize this was just a COVID-19 movie showing all the people that decided to ignore shelter in place and stay out late at night :)
Monday, May 11, 2020
Blame Game - 2
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Coronvirus Lockdown Remorse
Already doubt is setting into the minds of those taking swift lockdown measures. It's like "Coronavirus lockdown remorse" - as cabin fever sets in and economic malaise appears on retirement savings statements. The DNA of the USA is our risk taking entrepreneurs and they (like me) have the temptation to measure the costs and benefits of this crisis. Then using the utilitarian philosophical model of the greatest good as measured in total utility we can make the logical Spock like decision. But how does this apply in human life.
Spock in his final exchange with Captain Kirk gasps "The needs of the many......" and Kirk finishes for him "outweigh the needs of the few".
You can add to this philosophical debate the attempt to allocate money to those in pain and you can see why Congress can't agree on a stimulus package. Re-read the quote as you reflect on OPEC's fight about production of oil allocated among the Saudis and Russians. Measuring utility will always create disagreements.
How appropriate that my Bible devotional today was Matthew 16:26 "For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world and forfeits his soul? Or what shall a man give in return for his soul?"
What happens when you reverse the quote - "The needs of the few, outweigh the needs of the many" - suddenly you enter the world of human rights - the very soul that God created. There is no measurement of human life or the soul - it is infinite. Nothing finite can be given for something of infinite value.
When worldly crisis and suffering tests our resolve - it is the mathematics of the many weighed against the few that will measure our humanity - and determine the return for our soul.
Monday, November 25, 2019
Screwtape Letters Revisited
Most enjoyable was hearing from Max McClean the actor and founder of the Fellowship for Performing Arts. His question and answer postlude was enlightening. When asked about the humor in the performance his quote (which I will butcher) was that "the laughter of people allows the truth to enter their open mouths".
The number of performances that FPA does at college campuses creates ministry of Christian nudges for a broad audience of students and particularly for those aspiring to enter the field of theatre. What a wonderful way to seed the very souls of individuals that may never have been exposed to the great religious philosophers.
I think the plays are more meaningful for those who have read the C.S. Lewis books. It was surprising the number of people who raised their hands when asked who had not read Screwtape Letters.
C.S. Lewis said "I can't imagine a man really enjoying a book and reading it only once". Watching Screwtape Letters will cause me to read it for the third time.
https://fpatheatre.com/
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Saturday, October 26, 2019
Rules of Life
Not willing to give up on my original idea, I did present one equation (a rule of life) that I hope I have passed on to my girls.
I have already blogged about this magical equation - the power of compounding principle. The Urban Myths that Einstein said this principle was the eighth wonder of the world, or the most powerful force in the universe is worth spreading. I've already blogged about this with graphs included:
Mysterious Compounding and Powers - Growth or Patience (4/15 &16 2012)
J.D. quipped - "Just like you Garen to make a Rule of Life totally financial". "No" I replied. Delivering an act of kindness or one of your character principles to influence someone else can also compound. Just change the variables:
P= What principles are you delivering to influence people in your life?
r = What ROL (Return on Life) are you using to grow those principles in others (e.g. what % of the people that you touch receive your gift)
n = How often are you being deliberate about your influence - yearly, quarterly, monthly, daily or continuously
t= Over what time period are you doing this and how much time do you have left?
In a providential way, I happened upon the book "Make your Bed" by Admiral William H. McRaven (U.S. Navy Retired) and discovered it's origin from his May 17, 2014 University of Texas Commencement Speech. He said what I've always felt about the power of giving to others and changing one individual at a time - in less than 300 words:
"The University's slogan is 'What starts here changes the world". I have to admit, I kind of like it. "What starts here changes the world!"
Tonight there are almost eight thousand students graduating from the University of Texas. That great paragon of analytical rigor, Ask.com, says that the average American will meet ten thousand people in their lifetime. That's a lot of folks. But, if every one of you changed the lives of just ten people, and each one of those folks changed the lives of another ten people - just ten - then in five generations - 125 years - the class of 2014 will have changed the lives of 800 million people.
EIGHT HUNDRED MILLION people. Think of it: over twice the population of the United States. Go one more generation and you can change the entire population of the world, eight billion people. If you think it's hard to change the lives of ten people, change their lives forever, you're wrong.
I saw it happen every day in Iraq and Afghanistan. A young Army officer makes a decision to go left instead of right down a road in Baghdad and the ten soldiers in his squad are saved from a close-in-ambush.
In Kandahar province, Afghanistan, a non-commissioned officer from the Female Engagement Tam senses something isn't right and directs the infantry platoon away from a five-hundred-pound IED, saving the lives of a dozen soldiers.
But, if you think about it, not only were these soldiers saved by the decisions of one person, but their children yet unborn were also saved. And their children's children were saved. Generations were saved by one decision, by one person.
But changing the world can happen anywhere, and anyone can do it. So, what starts here can indeed change the world, but the question is: What will the world look like after you change it?
There's a spiritual message embedded deep inside this mysterious principle of compounding. Maybe Einstein really did think this was the most powerful force in the universe. What is behind this mysterious powerful principle - who created it and for what purpose? It is worth spreading - Belief in our Creator, his infinite love, and his gift of salvation.
Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Boston Legal #17 - Proverbs 11:29
While the 1999 television version stayed true to the script, there were some scenes changed that I would characterize as stronger feminism statements. After reading the Wikipedia "facts" about the
Scopes "Monkey" Trial, I think the fictionalized movie did an adequate job of depicting the 1925 trial - even the "deliberately staged reason" for the small town of Hillsboro (really Dayton Tennessee). However there were some radical inconsistencies with the actual facts - but that's what movies and revisionist history is all about.
I got "wind" of this movie during the Sunday sermon at ACUMC on belief and faith. Also my breakfast book club with P.N. and R.M. on Ancient Faith and Modern Physics and my recent read of "Sapiens - A Brief History of Humankind" has spurred my thinking about apologetic arguments for Christianity.
The Fundamentalist-Modernist controversy about the inconsistency of evolution and religion continues to this day. I haven't been to the Creation Museum (right here in Cincinnati) but have been to the Ark Encounter several times (Ky - but a short drive from Cincinnati). It becomes a tension (like the courtroom) of education and ideas. Is the Bible the inerrant word of God? the inspired word of God? or just another set of ancient texts to be read as mythological stories by unenlightened ancestors?
I prefer how C.S. Lewis would have answered the question above if he had been in the courtroom:
“We must not be ashamed of the mythical radiance resting on our theology. We must not be nervous about "parallels" and "pagan Christs": they ought to be there-it would be a stumbling block if they weren't. We must not, in false spirituality, withhold our imaginative welcome. If God chooses to be mythopoeic-and is not the sky itself a myth-shall we refuse to be mythopathic? For this is the marriage of heaven and earth: perfect myth and perfect fact: claiming not only our love and our obedience, but also our wonder and delight, addressed to the savage, the child, and the poet in each one of us no less than to the moralist, the scholar, and the philosopher.”
The yearning for knowledge points us to some ultimate source. The tension of arguing about that ultimate source allows each individual to explore their faith and beliefs. What better way to draw closer to God?
I loved the ending of this movie (watch the last 5 minutes):
Thursday, January 3, 2019
The Need for Speed
In all cases, it takes persistence, negotiation capabilities, and in some cases threats of ending service to get the best deal possible. For my personal situation using Cincinnati Bell, the end of year call resulted in a lower bill by $35/mth and increased internet speed from 50 Mbps to 500 Mbps. But the promotional price I was given is only promised for one year which will require another year end call around 2019 to get the best deal.
Luckily Cincinnati Bell doesn't realize that my threats of discontinuing service would never happen as I promised to never ..... ever become a customer of Time Warner again.
My first task today was to determine if I was actually receiving the 500 Mbps negotiated speed. That is tough since most speed test applications are 50 Mbps. I found a site the record speeds up to 1Gbps www.openspeedtest.com . My speed is only showing 96Mbps. That will require a follow-up phone call with Cincinnati Bell.
When I asked my Tennis buddies what speed they are getting - the common answer "Don't know, Don't Care, its good enough for what I need". I'm just not satisfied with that!
As Tom Cruise said in Top Gun.....
Maverick - "I feel the need"
Goose - "The need for speed"
Tuesday, October 9, 2018
Boston Legal #15
Continuing in the DeNiro and Duvall tradition movie choices - the pick was "The Good Shepherd". Rated 6.7 out of 10 on IMDB it was in the middle of the pack of 90 Spy and Cold War movies under consideration for the evening.
My favorite quote occurred early in the movie as a Poetry Professor at Yale said "Fine Poetry is the music of mathematics. Numbers singing. You have to look behind the words to understand their meaning."
It was a complicated CIA movie about loyalty, betrayal, duty, temptation, decency and truth. Full of mystery with Skull and Bones club, Mafia, KGB and others, the movie show how power can corrupt at every level.
Funny how that was part of the cigar and bourbon discussion prior to the viewing.
Saturday, August 11, 2018
Choosing GOD - Boston Legal #14
It was unanimous that we agreed that values (staying true to one's principles) should be the constant filter for all choices in life. Having a "war chest" of "mad money" can add additional courage in your convictions and choices that have economic consequences.
The evening continued with watching "Saving Private Ryan". How appropriate to decision making with the lens of duty, honor and courage. Decisions in war, test the very core of human actions in the struggle of who knows God's truth. I was reminded of the Columbia 1989 PBS series "Under Orders - Under Fire - Part 1" and the very personal conflicting ethics faced with split second decisions in War - all of which were reinforced in various scenes of Saving Private Ryan.
Even the comment of "Which God is True" set the stage for some interesting philosophical discussions on relativism and self authorship. My emerging view draws closer to providential pathways to my maker - the God I faithfully hold as Truth.
It's not my choice - it is in obedience to his choice.
Friday, May 25, 2018
Bucket List
There was much discussion about categories, outputs, and outcomes. Outcomes were associated with joy, health and life fulfillment. Outputs were the activities that might measure the outcome from an external viewpoint. I actually did some internet research (naturally) to get some ideas. Stumbled upon a person who creatively used the entire Bucket List format to publish a book and website: 1000 ideas for you Bucket List.
So - I did a deep dive and came up with 20 items - here is just a sampling:
(1) Fly in a Glider
(3) Crawl Inside a Pyramid
(7) Mission Trip
(12) Curling
(14) See a Whale
(19) Visit Stonehenge
The reality is that I have been blessed to experience most of what I have wanted in the last 63 years and it was actually a tough exercise to come up with "important" and meaningful outputs. I too am focused more on the outcomes and let the activities be more defined by the outcomes.
Just proves again that it is the experience of the journey that counts not the destinations or the time.
PS - We were stuck watching Blade Runner 2049 that had a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 87. At 2hrs and 44 minutes it was tough remembering the original Blade Runner and its plot and following the sequel. Thank goodness for Wikipedia summaries.
Monday, April 30, 2018
Political Comedy Low Point
I personally have a style of teasing, cutting humor, satire, sarcastic commentary, spiced with a jab, a razz, and sometimes a taunt to those I have closest relationships with. I think this came from my east coast teenage years of junior high and high school. Of course someone who delivers this style must also be thick skinned enough to take it back (which I think I do). Most of my good friends enjoy jabbing at me also. It is a way to laugh at oneself and each other. Also it can be a fun battle of wits.
Yet reading this comedy routine shows how sarcasm can be abused and especially when the sexual innuendos cascade to filth. For years, I have watched and enjoyed the White House correspondent's dinner. My favorite was George W's playful interaction with his impersonator Steve Bridges in 2006.
It is shameful to see where the White House correspondents' dinner has evolved. No wonder the President didn't show up this year.
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Lord Over Drugs
Naturally, I agree with this statement by the Mom refusing to jump to drugs as any solution to parenting. The Teacher jumped to the conclusion that the son had Attention Deficit Disorder and suggested medication. A "fix it" with medicine problem solving mentality. While I understand (especially with my own back pain at times) the real need for drugs and medication, I also believe we are an overdrugged culture and jump to that solution as the easiest way out.
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that more than one quarter of all American children and teens now take prescription drugs on a regular basis, too -- and this percentage is on the rise as well. Many of these children are taking dangerous psychiatric medications like Ritalin and Risperdal for so-called behavioral problems like attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).
Now the big news (although it is old news) is about the Opioid and epidemic overdose crisis that is infecting the USA (over 130 deaths per day). Check out this interactive map from 2009 to 2014 to see it's spread and geographical dispersion at A Deadly Crisis.
Friday, August 11, 2017
Hope
My own coping mechanism for shock is to search for information, statistics, numbers - in a Spock like logical fashion - and dampen any emotional surge. Try to avoid the infinite loop of "WHY" that attempts to let the emotional valley of despair be visible.
I saw M.I. and D.I on Saturday - Day 7 and everything from the neck up was normal. Just like the 17 years of gathering together discussing life, the future, and ..... well some of the insignificant current events (when compared to this event). My conversation that Saturday afternoon was primarily just that - just insignificant stuff - in an attempt to avoid any emotional rollercoaster intimacy that grief or uncertainty might uncover around some fear of a future dark corner of relationship unknowns. Avoid asking about the accident; avoid probing into their emotional privacy; avoid the obvious yearning to tell them both my own feelings of sympathy and compassion. My thoughts - just be there for them - that should be enough.
Yes - I've reached out to my network asking for information, advice and prayer. I've researched foundations, medical facilities, checked out medical books on SCI (Spinal Cord Injury) Rehabilitation, re-read the Diving Bell and the Butterfly, watched the movie, the list goes on and on. Each day I read the CaringBridge blog that D.I. so bravely posts and I compose encouraging words of support. Even prayer dominates my day - specifically for the M.I, D.I. and family.
When you don't understand ..... with no amount of data available to explain ....only three words remain - Faith, Hope and Love (1 Corinthians 13:13).
Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Board Room Exit
The interesting philosophy I remember most about the book and the movie is trying to determine who is crazy and who is sane? What is "prison" and what is "freedom"? Who is in control and who isn't?
In the final scene the Chief (pretending to be deaf and dumb) leaves the Mental Ward and it's up to you to decide, based on the outcomes of all the characters, who is better off.
So what was my point as the three departing Board members left me with yet another term?
Depends on your perspective :)