If I Were King

It's appropriate to acknowledge 250 years since the signing of the Declaration of Independence today.

Happy 4th of July!!!!

Actually I have little memory of July 4th 1976 ( The150 anniversary) celebration since I was deep into my Internship at Arthur Andersen (Administrative Services Division) inserting BAL subroutines into an RPG software package called MAC-PAC; then recompiling the programs so that the DOS 360 IBM mainframe could execute the software package.   We were working evening shift when the mainframe was not in heavy use. But.... I digress in my memories that dominated my life 50 years ago.  I had little thought then of freedom and philosophical matters. I was just focused on completing my Masters Degree the next fall and getting a job!

What todays blog is really about is a journey in a thought experiment (similar to our Founding Fathers) that is also the topic of choice for the Vistage Alumni Group this month.   Here is the question.  

                    "If you were King of the World, what would you do?"

Naturally I took the "high tech" (or lazy) approach and asked AI for help.  I posed this question to Copilot, Gemini Pro, Claude, Perplexity, ChatGPT-5, and Grok in two ways - first as if they had to answer themselves and second for structuring my answer to my Vistage buddies for the July meeting.  

One thing for certain is that these AI engines are USA and freedom biased because everyone of the AI engines said they would abdicate authority as soon as feasible. George Washington is considered our best president because he abdicated power and refused to be King.  Good to know AI has the same philosophy and courage.  

As for helping me decide what I would do as King, my dialogue with Copilot and Gemini Pro (the two AI engines that I use the most) went about 11 chats deep and came close to the same conclusion.  Abdicate power and don't focus on rule making.

Loading the Copilot chat data into NotebookLM produced an interesting video available on my Youtube channel.

The key punchline:  

"Maybe the most important job of a king is not governing behavior. Maybe it's giving people a reason to hope."

Passport Persistence

Just received an email from the US Government reminding me my passport will expire NEXT YEAR (2027) in May! WOW - this mirrors best practices of a business - efficient consumer notification and revenue seeking enterprise with recommended convenient and easy renewal. With the reminder that some countries (like the Netherlands) require a passport to be valid for six month past the travel date to that country (meaning I would not be able enter the Netherlands November of this year). That brings back the memory of my Accenture trip to Amsterdam July 1997. Here is the long version of the story: 

 It was July 12, 1997 and I was a “seasoned” Partner with Andersen Consulting approaching the eighth year since my admission to the Partnership (Aug. 1989). One of the rites of passage of this “seasoned” Partner was to be invited to the Partner’s sabbatical educational “wellbeing” forum (Chautauqua style) in Amsterdam. A week to relax, listen to lectures on world affairs, economics, fine arts, and philosophy. I decided to combine this respite afterwards with a week of vacation with the family (Mom, Dad, Susan, and Jenna) in a cruise down the Rhine. I had dutifully checked that all family members had valid passports and properly noted that since Susan’s and my passport would be expiring Sept. 28, 1997, we should renew it once we got back from this overseas visit. 

 And so the story begins. Saturday evening July 12, 1997, I approached the Cincinnati Airport Delta check-in counter. As a Platinum Medallion Frequent Flyer, “veteran” and first-class traveler, I sauntered up to the special check-in counter as if expecting to be known on a first name basis while producing my travel credentials. 

 The gate agent, a smartly uniformed young male, began the clicking at his terminal computer to input my passport information, print a boarding pass and luggage tags. 

“Sir, did you know that your passport will expire in September?”, he politely inquired. Confidently I answered, “Sure, and once I get back, I will be renewing it, thank you for the reminder”. 

“I’m sorry sir, I can’t let you board this flight” he responded. “The Netherlands will not permit entry for those with passports with expirations within six months”. 

 Now I was confused, Andersen Consulting used one of the largest travel agencies in the world to book flights. I asked the agent, “Why would my flight reservation have been valid”? 

“Sir, I don’t know the answer to that, all I can tell you are the rules of entry that Delta must comply with.” “That doesn’t make sense - my reservation shows that I will be returning to the USA July 23 well before my passport expiration date.” “I’m sorry sir there is nothing I can do.” 

Here is where my self-importance kicked in - I’m a big wig Partner at Andersen Consulting, a first-class traveler and Platinum Frequent Flyer. “Just put me on the flight, I’ll talk to the Netherland’s customs agents to resolve this.” “I can’t do that sir”. “Why not?” “Delta will not only be required to immediately fly you back to the states, we will also be fined by the Netherlands government for flying you to the country to begin with”. 

 By now my blood pressure had risen, my reward for 8 years of partnership (20 years of hard work at Arthur Andersen) would be interrupted along with my family vacation plans. Meanwhile, time was running out for when the flight would board. Back in 1997 (pre 9/11 TSA) it was a red badge of courage to show up to the airport with just moments before the boarding of your flight. Seeing that I did not have time to escalate this to a higher authority before the flight would leave, I needed an alternate plan. Endlessly repeating “You’ve got to be kidding me”, I was unwilling to give up my place in line while I frantically thought of alternatives. My mind shot back to the 1963 movie “The Great Escape” with the iconic scene of Steve McQueen’s attempt to jump over a German barbed wire fencing protecting the German border on his motorbike.

“What country in Europe will accept my passport?” I demanded. A few clicks later, he said “Germany will”. “And what is your next flight to Germany”. “Actually, we have one leaving in 45 minutes to Frankfurt” the agent responded. (those were the good ol’ days when CVG was flying everywhere in the world!) “Good, book me on that flight, I guarantee I will find a way to get into Amsterdam!!”. Even if riding a bicycle or walking by foot through the countryside farmland, I would find a way in. The USA postal motto rang through my head! “Neither snow, nor rain, nor heat ….. With nine hours of flight time and first class airphone capability, I had time to construct various strategies and plans to enter the Netherlands. 

 Time was the critical variable, so cost was no object. The goal was to attend the Partner’s Cocktail Reception Sunday evening at 7pm. The Great Escape/ Steve McQueen motorbike option was my backup plan. Plan A would be to determine the train schedule from Frankfurt Germany to Amsterdam Netherlands. With the founding of the European Union (November 1993), I presumed the travel rules and attention to passport detail might be lax on rail travel from one European Country to the next. The $100 cost of a one-way train ticket was not important, however the train added four to six hours to my estimated time of arrival depending on the number of local stops. That left less than 3 hours of contingency time to make the Partner’s Reception. 

 The heightened adrenaline flowing through my body combined with the airphone calls to the travel agency prevented any sleep on the Delta flight to Frankfurt. The flight landed Sunday morning at 9am and wearily, I passed through customs and navigated my way to the Euro-rail ticket office. What a waste of High School and College time learning ancient Latin – when now I needed some rudimentary speaking ability to navigate the local German rail system. I strategically decided not to book a nonstop rail to Amsterdam expecting the same passport checks that Delta Airlines had performed. A route with local stops would advance my position closer to the border in case my backup plan was required – entry by car, motorbike, bicycle, or walking. 

 Once on the train, I had another six hours to practice what I would say to any local conductor or authority that might question my passport credentials. I had no clue how European trains might transfer passengers or check credentials at border crossings. Planning alternate routes and scenarios was challenging with no cell phones or GPS mapping capability. It was three hours to the Netherland’s border so again no sleep since this risky action was creating stress. Now I know how criminals feel during a heist. Each time a new local conductor would check my ticket, my stress level would rapidly rise - would he ask for my passport? 

 We hit the border and the Netherland’s conductor appeared asking for my passport. Sweat was pouring down my sideburns and my body temperature was clearly heightened. My passport was filled with travel stamps – October 1987 France; November 1987 Liechtenstein, November 1993 Gatwick, April 1997 Gatwick, Canadian Work Visa November 1996; The conductor slowly (oh so slowly) flipped through the pages. He carefully opened the three-fold Canadian Work Visa puzzled by its presence. He asked if I spoke Dutch or German. I shook my head saying, “I only speak English”. Probably, too busy to take on this situation – he punched my ticket and moved on. My entry into the Netherlands was complete. I arrived at the Partner’s Reception promptly at 7pm. No barbed wire capture for this Steve McQueen veteran traveler. That trip and vacation was my personal “Great Escape!” 

 Postscript: Without 22 hours of sleep, I was in a daze sipping on my Merlot wine at the Partner’s Reception after successfully checking in and freshening up. I introduced myself to an Arthur Andersen Chicago Audit Partner and described my Steve McQueen journey to him. He pulled out his passport. “That’s funny - my passport expires in September too and I had no problem flying out of O’hare on United”.

 Addendum: Equally stressful was attempting to get Susan  into the country four days later. When I learned of the Delta/Netherland restriction, I was fully aware Susan’s passport expired in the same month as mine (we both applied the same time for passports for our trip to Switzerland in 1987).

 On Monday 7/14/1997, I called the Andersen Consulting office asking how long an expedited passport renewal would take since Susan was scheduled to fly to Amsterdam on Thursday 7/17/1997. Alas – even with Federal Express and expedited surcharges it was a risk that it could be completed by Thursday. I decided it was not worth the chance. 

 Since Susan was traveling with my parents and Jenna, changing all flights and the cruise dates would be cost prohibitive. A plan B was necessary – and not one as complicated as my itinerary. I was willing to bet if she could get past the Delta agent that Susan, with my elderly parents and a six-year-old child, Susan could talk her way into the country upon landing in Amsterdam. But how to get her on the flight?

 I assumed that the gate agent might have both a different check-in system and less knowledge than the front airport lobby. I told Mom and Dad to check all the luggage (including Susan’s) at the airport lobby. Proceed with Susan to the gate and have Susan check in at the gate for her boarding pass.

 Amazingly that got Susan on the plane. Once landed in Amsterdam there was still a risk. Luck again was on our side as the border entry process went smoothly. Susan, Jenna, and my parents arrived without a hitch on Saturday July 18, 1997 and a joyful family vacation cruise from Amsterdam down the Rhine was experienced returning safely to the USA July 23, 1997.

Vaccination Variables

 It's time for me to weigh in on vaccination hesitancy.  

First disclaimers....   I have been researching risks and rewards of vaccination only recently and I am clearly not an epidemiologist  or  vaccination expert. I have a bias related to Jenna's diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes (Jan 2019) directly after a bad reaction to a required flu shot (all nurses were encouraged/required to get a flu shot) in addition to the fact I have never had a flu shot myself. Also I tend to be the equivalent of a Christian Scientist that minimizes all drugs and chemicals in my body.  However I tend to have a philosophy of utilitarianism in evaluating cost/benefits in moral behavior.  I have had COVID-19 (a mild case 12/7/2020) and survived with proof of the antibodies in my blood.  I have not had any direct family members who have died as a result of COVID-19 (although you could say my Dad's passing might be indirectly related). I'm a rusty statistician and have strong opinions about proper statistical analysis, terms and protocol.  I have not received the vaccination and have purposely deferred the decision with the expectation (maybe misguided) that my antibodies give me the necessary protection short tern against reinfection with the variants.  

Now to the point -  I believe the "herd effect" promotion of vaccination is driving momentum to rush to judgement about it's efficacy.   The general population (including the media) misunderstanding of efficacy and effectiveness (along with the fear both serious illness and/or death) has driven the herd to rapidly jump to vaccination as the defacto solution to the pandemic.  Finally - as a rusty statistician - I am appalled by the data not being collected; the lack of control groups; and the rush to judgement on non peer reviewed, small sample size, laboratory based theories, that are being revealed as science proven population truths.  There are long term risks that we can't predict - unknown costs that only time will reveal. 

Weighing this viewpoint against the altruistic "duty" to others becomes the central emotional variable that divides the vaccinated from the unvaccinated (in addition to each individual's self fear of getting the virus).  It is that moral dilemma  that I have studied rigorously for the past 10 years.  My best recommendation is to read  "Justice - What's the Right Thing to Do" or listen to Sandel's Harvard Lectures.  

The press, government (CDC), and vaccinated group would aspire to the practical viewpoint that the few casualties associated with the vaccine over-ride the benefits for the entire population (while justifying that -as and example- the blood clots are not any more than what is experienced in the pre vaccination world).  This says a few deaths are worth "saving" the many.  Yet this same logic could be applied in the macro view - 570K deaths for the 330M affected by non medical interventions (economic shutdown; educational casualties; etc. etc.).  Using numbers (particularly percentages) and elapsed time are the fundamental ways to erroneously argue the philosophy. 

But numbers don't count in the emotional world of individual decision making.  Reason and logic will never trump the spirit and soul inside.  It takes a higher order of philosophy to determine the truth.  It takes looking into the heart to understand motive and action.   

"Inside the envelope of patience there are many letters of forgiveness."   Time is the currency of patience.  COVID has been with us well over 500 days and will likely be with us permanently.  There is much we don't know but we do not have to fear the unknown. 

  

 

Micro vs Macro Views

Some might title the micro view of this crisis "Looking out for #1" ( like the 70's book by Robert Ringer) - it all comes down to "How will the COVID-19 affect me and my family?

For two weeks I've been looking through the rear view mirror at COVID-19 data (Worldwide, USA and State). Even trying to forecast the traffic pattern and peak rush hour risk in the future (with limited success).  But how do you predict what's happening on the local road you are traveling on?  How can you predict how many cars are on YOUR local road and how many are on the road miles ahead of your present position?   More cars are entering the road hourly, more probability of collision with the chance of major accident with possible fatal outcomes.

That took me to the Seattle and King County road map.  Why not see what happened there where the first car entered the USA highway network.

I was amazed at the quality of the Seattle and King County Public Health site and Coronavirus Dashboard:

As a Statistician, I know it is dangerous to pick one data point especially since at least 55 of the cases and 20 of the deaths in King County are related to one physical site - Life Care Center of Kirkland.  This instance makes up almost 10% of the County Deaths all of which were probably residents over the age of 80.   But even with that outlier this data is worth reviewing.

Here are my observations  (rounded for convenience):
(1)  87% of those tested  are Negative
(2) Number of tests per day is about 1K
(3) While the compounded growth rate since the first instance (2/28) to April 4 is 29%, the daily percentage increase was about 4% for April 4th.
(4) More Men than Women test Positive  (W-11%;  M-16%)
(5)You don't want to be 80+ in age (Death % of Positive Cases = 24%)
(7) Best to be under 60  0.8% (Death % of Positive Cases)
(8) Better to be female that male (W-8% Death; M-6% Death)

When looking at the micro view - the fear depends on your age and sex (also pre-existing health issues as reported elsewhere). Now suddenly the potential solutions become more individualized.

The micro view would focus on individual quarantine and age and health based physical/social distancing or shelter-in-place.  This might be a ramp-up strategy for restarting the US economy.

Whether micro of macro, the actions to take will be an experiment we will all have to live with and learn from for future outbreaks.

Truth and Consequences

Truth will reveal itself over time.  Consequently arguments are really about time - should we wait or not in our decisions today.  Probability adds into that equation and expected values.  And so the argument continues about COVID-19 and the decisions that are being made - individually, community, nationally and globally.

Questions about the utility of life and what measures we take to save lives we constantly be argued.  Close to 75% of all deaths in the USA are the result of 10 causes (top three are 50%) -  Heart Disease, Cancer, Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease, Accidents, Stroke, Alzheimer's, Diabetes,Influenza and Pneumonia, Kidney, and Suicide.

So add three of them up - Respiratory (147K), Influenza (55K) and Suicide (43K) -  245K deaths.  Now put the cost of a life into this equation - let's assume $10 million (Value of Life) per life.  So we lose $2.45 Billion a year in lives for these three conditions.  This is likely overstated since the value of one's life varies over time and the older you are the less future earned income you can produce.  But save that thought for a different blog entry.

Let's switch to USA GDP - $21.73 Trillion and growing at 2-3%.  So here is the question -   What reduction of the GDP growth rate would you accept to save 500K lives?

If GDP growth slowed to zero in 2020 (say down 2.4% -see  Coronavirus could cost the Global Economy $2.7 Trillion. Here's How) the that would be a cost of $522 Billion.  Would you accept a $522 Billion economic opportunity loss to save 500K lives?

Bloomberg  3/6/2020  Coronavirus Could Cost the Global Economy $2.7 Trillion

Back to the equation of $10 million a life -  $5 Billion for 500K lives.  Here is where the logic breaks down - let the 500K die to save the economy.  It's 10 times the return on life.

Looking at it a different way - "At least $26 Trillion in global market capitalization has been lost since February"  (Goodbye, Dow 30,000! Hello Dow 10,000?). Obviously this drop is not entirely due to COVID-19 - but assume 50% was - $13Trillion.  What would if have been worth to prevent COVID-19 from entering the USA back in February?  What would it be worth to stop COVID-19 from spreading, get back to work, and put calm back into the Stock Market?

As you can tell - I have no answers, only questions.   Our governmental officials must wrestle with these questions but ultimately they must "bet" on time - act now or wait and see.  Different states are being allowed to make their own bets.  The Federal Government provides oversight and can "Trump" their decisions.  When is the right time for that?

Truth will be known this time next year and the historic bloggers that were right will point out their prowess.  Those that we wrong will justify their logic and decision "at that time".

Everyone will claim the Truth - yet no one knows the Truth.

Educational Pandemic

Even though schools may be closed, there is much learning going on - at least for those interested in learning more about this global crisis.

(1) Exponential growth and various statistics about calculating mortality rates
(2) Country and Culture comparisons in approach to dampening the virus progress
(3) Biology of animal to human transmission of virus (yes I had to look up  pangolins and civets).

(4) Generational respect -  Asking the youth to stop partying and transmitting the COVID-19 to us old folks.
(5) Political laws about cancelling primaries or elections.
(6) Powers of Executive Branches (Federal, State and Local) in declared emergencies
(7) Charts depicting the damping and slowing down process
(8) Social customs of greeting and how to perform social distancing
(9) Specific instructions on hygiene and how to wash your hands
(10) Statistics on how often you touch your face (about 3000 times a day)
(11) How to amuse yourself without Sports, Bars, Parades, Restaurant, Gym, ....  you name it.
(12) Maybe seek some additional spiritual growth and education
(13) How to work from home
(14) Learning how to use technology (e.g. Amazon order; Echo Show communication; Overdrive for library books)

I even liked the creativity and actions this virus is drawing out of businesses:
 
(1) Restaurants now considering the delivery business
(2) Specific store hours by age distribution  (maybe to help in the normal flu season)
(3) Work Conferencing
(4) Communicating with customers and suppliers
(5) Expediting supply chains in critical industries
(6) Accelerate the vaccine development and delivery process
(7) Business interruption plans and contingency


Yes - a crisis like this can create new ways of thinking and doing business.   Additionally it can create a sense and need for global cooperation and problem solving.  Yes - there will be plenty of suffering, but maybe it is the very suffering that will point us to the single source of joy.

In spite of all the recommendations to manage social distancing physically, a crisis like this can only be managed by socially interconnecting virtually and spiritually.

FUN in Funding

Just got back from Family Nurturing Center a Social Venture Partner Investee from 2013 to 2015 and still an Investee that the Partners feel connected to in many ways (in fact P.G. is now the Board Chairperson).  Today's purpose was to highlight what SVP Cincinnati does combined with showing a team that I worked hands on helping in their infrastructure.  Channel 12 was compiling a short video for Cincinnati Rotary in their selection for the Jefferson Award.

It is an honor for me and SVP Cincinnati to be named as one of three finalists this year.  Only through serendipitous discovery, did I come to realize that the other two finalists are connected to SVP Cincinnati through our Investee Investment and Fastpitch programs.  Wow - what a bonus -  everyone is a winner!

SVP Cincinnati "Invests Differently"  - and since June 2007 our 60 partners (and 40 Alumni) have helped over 100 Non-Profits in Cincinnati giving over $1.5Million in our time, talent and treasure. 

Our grant money is unrestricted; our coaching is strategic; our time is focused on critical non-profit back office needs freeing the non-profit's time for programs.  The organizations we touch become sustainable, efficient, strategic and better in their delivery of good to the community. 

One of the most important word for a non-profit is funding.  So how do you put FUN into the word funding?   That is the mystery of philanthropy - "The mystical mingling of the Joyful Giver, the Grateful Recipient and..... the Artful Asker".   Giving is serious business - deciding how to steward and avoid CAREless gifts. The real gift is the opportunity to serve - it takes two.  Giving was never meant to be a individual sport and joy multiplies exponentially with a team.  

Discover your return on life - join with others in giving.

Pathetic Customer Service Wanna Be

Today at lunch I heard a classic Customer Service story from a friend (privacy was requested) that reminded me of my own favorite POOR Customer Service Story.  Here are two classics in one blog.

WARNING:

The content of this story is politically charged (especially in today's incivility) and contains graphical language that may offend you (depending on your political bias).  Read forward at your own risk.

Story #1  -   A supporter of President Donald Trump recently called Nordstrom (yes Nordstrom the infamous icon of superb Customer Service) to voice her objection about the recent news of their discontinuing of Ivanka Trump merchandise.

[Note some history here: During the election there was a call to boycott Nordstrom back in October with a balanced Nordstrom's response "Nordstrom responds to viral letter"]. Back to the story ---  

After waiting 15 minutes on hold, she then told the Nordstrom Customer Service Representative that she would be forced [because of Nordstrom's politically pressured actions] to cancel her Nordstrom's credit card. 

[Here's the punchline Customer service response]

"That's PATHETIC, Sorry to see you go."

Story #2  -   Years ago, I was continuously flying every week during my years at Accenture.  Going back and forth to Canada, I had decided to fly both Delta and Canadian Air.  I had been a Platinum card holder of Delta for 5-6 continuous years when during the heavy years of flying to Canada, I had missed by a few segments reaching Platinum status. I decided to send an email to Delta Customer Service requesting consideration for an exception and to renew my Platinum status.   The return email subject was titled:

"Platinum Wanna Be"

Here are two stories of how exemplary customer service that drives intense customer loyalty can be lost in a single word!  And they both demonstrate how these stories are etched into the memory of individuals and spread virally to the detriment of the company.

Pathetic Customer Service Representative Wanna Be

Work to Live or Live to Work

I remember my Grandfather Well's wisdom when he said: "You either Work to Live or Live to Work".  He said this as he was asking me also about my hobbies recognizing that my work-aholic  tendencies may have over emphasized the Live to Work part.  He also said: "Without hobbies, interests and other relationships..... the day you retire is the day you start to die."

I just finished reading Barry Schwartz's Ted Original book (from the TED Talk series) titled "Why We Work".  The question seems simple yet the answer is embedded in a complex weave of our human nature, institutional and governmental systems, motivations, and yes.... moral sentiments with the haunting of life's purpose.

I always felt that attitude was 80% of the solution.  Even life's worst job, with the right attitude, can be fulfilling - as Schwartz says "who they are, not what the work is".  I even remember at Accenture when the Functional Head of the Human Resource consulting practice shocked me with the HR principal that money (and incentives) will not create sustainable employee job satisfaction -  substantiated by significant surveys and psychological data.

Schwartz postulates that our ideas and/or ideology (which may be false truths) about why we work may "bear a large measure of the responsibility for the nature of our work".  I grew up in a billable hour mindset (consulting fees) and as such started putting a price on time - an evening with friends has "costs".  My obsession with studying time and money may have grow out of this very mindset.

So there is some danger in false ideology - meaning that it can become true simply by people believing it's true.  I reconstruct how I think about my actions to match the false ideology; The self fulfilling prophecy can take over; The Pygmalion Effect of expectations by others might take over; or Institutionalizing the idea in social and governmental structures overpowers you. 

So before you give up and believe that we are stuck in a declining spiral of unfulfilling work paradigms. Remember that human beings are "value soaked" creatures.  Everything we do announces a value (a purpose).  Embedded in our hearts is that search for value - which is our choice.  Our "work" will always reflect our value (good or bad).  If our work is bad or unfulfilling, the conflict in our soul will press us with suffering until we resolve the false ideology.

Working to Live .... for what purpose?  Living for purpose is your work.

Vistage Inklings

Tomorrow I will meet with my Vistage 1107 group. I look forward to these meetings each and every month.  I can even "blame" a Vistage session by B.E. for this blog.

There are only four of us that remain as the founding group that started meeting back in July 2004.  G. B. will be in the "spotlight" and I'm sure it will be interesting.  Reading about C.S. Lewis's group called the Inklings, Vistage serves this purpose for me.  A  group of very talented business professionals meeting monthly for friendship, "carefrontation", business idea stimulation, and personal development. In fact, every meeting I get some sort of inkling - a whisper, a nudge from one of the members.

I reviewed my inklings and scribbles from all the 2016 meetings and found the pages littered with quotes, ideas, goals, to dos, and a tapestry my own and others comments.  With twelve years of nudges and notes, I can see a pattern improvement and growth.

My next Spotlight #11 is March 2017 and that responsibility launches me into what has become a very enjoyable activity of self reflection, philosophical musing, and deep emersion of research and learning.  Covering all topics from personal mission, time/money, risk/reward, luck, happiness, longevity, Heaven, friendship and even "Golden Oldies",  I wait to get inspired by a subject that will be fun to research and valuable information for the other members.

So what will be the subject?  Business topics I'm considering - Leadership; Customer Experience; Technology Shifts; Margin or Revenue; Ethics Interpersonal topics I'm considering - Memories, Hobbies and Habits; Creativity; Giving;

I need an inkling :)

Active Investing Mountain

Today I was instructed to clean my office by M.L.  One of the most unsightly piles (yes I manage and file papers by piles) is all the correspondence since 12/28/15 from the Prime Clerk office regarding the Magnum Hunter Bankruptcy.

TWO FEET of paperwork with over 80 Federal Express envelopes delivered to my door (nearly one every other day).  The postage alone must exceed $500.  This mountain was the result of R.M. encouraging me to write the Judge asking him to consider Chapter 7 bankruptcy vs Chapter 11.  That innocent letter was recorded in the Prime Clerk office and I was listed as an "interested party". 

And.......  I continue to get paperwork even after the ruling (in favor of the Chapter 11) at the house.  I've decided to stop collecting it to add to my pile and will throw it away today.

My Magnum Hunter stock and preferred is now worthless - along with many other sorry investors..  While painful - it is not financial significant (I feel sorry for those that invested their retirement in Magnum) and I can add this to the list of other risky investments I have made (and have gone bankrupt) over the years (i.e. Symbolics, Learnout & Hauspie, Euro Tunnel, Euro Disney, Nortel, Presidential Casino, Webvan etc.).  

What have I learned in 40 years of investing? -  that passive investing (index investing) is the proper way to invest for your life savings.  Remember LeBouef's Law from his book "The Millionaire in You" -   -  "Invest your time actively and your money passively"

Does that mean you should avoid those tempting get rich quick ideas, or brilliance of buying the early Microsoft?   No - but only if you treat it like gambling and entertainment.  Expect to lose it all - "play money" is the term.  Also expect the time spent to be wasted also.  Don't have the illusion that the time spent on these activities will get any great return also (other than interesting topics at lunch or dinner).

But...... there is a whole industry focused on active investing arguing that with enough time and intelligence (and many add diversification), you can "beat the market".  There are plenty of stories and testimonials about those who have done it.  Just ignore the Nobel Laureates - Markowitz, Sharpe, Miller, Kahneman, and who cares about what Adam Smith, Bachelier, Samuleson, Fama, French, Galton, Sinquefield, Malkiel, von Hayek, John C. Bogle, and yes.....   Warren Buffet himself say.   Listen to those who will profit from your fees -  they have your best interest in mind.

But in the Financial Planner's defense -  They can protect you from yourself....... and TWO FEET of paper :)

Lead with Love

M.L. gave me the book "Love Works" by Joel Manby.  It combines his view of organizational leadership with the Herschend family objectives of HFE (Herschend Family Entertainment). 

(1)  Make great long-term investments
(2) Make HFE a great place to work for great people
(3) Lead with LOVE

"We understand that sometimes tension can exist between these objectives, but that is a tension that needs to be managed..... This is a tension to embrace, not eliminate", said Jack Hershend as he left the Board.

I liked this thought.  It also applies to the individual.  What if we each made the above three statements guiding principles in our individual behavior?

Note each principle involves ACTION.  Joel makes the point that LOVE is not a feeling - it's an ACTION.  It is about behavior not looking for feelings.  "Treating someone with love REGARDLESS of how you FEEL about the person is a powerful principle."

National Honor Society

Monday evening Susan and I attended the admitting ceremonies for Ellen into the National Honor Society.  Later that evening I tried to find my 1972 pin, but alas it is buried in some like of nostalgia box in the unfinished basement.

It seemed like half of the junior class at Indian Hill High School were admitted - there were over 60 honored that evening.  Yet it is a milestone and a very important achievement.  Today I was performing mock interviews at Miami University (Oxford) and noticed this on the Freshman's resume.   What a breath of freshness to see - since the advice given at College Placement offices (probably under the illusion from the Human Resource professionals at Corporate America) is to not put High School information on the resume.

I have exactly the opposite point of view.   A junior in college (or even senior) has only 7 years of his/her life to describe and differentiate themselves.  High School today is like junior colleges were in my day in both academics and encouraging other extra-curricular activities.  Why shouldn't that be something the individual be proud of.

As asked the freshman today - "What is the sole purpose of a resume"?   The answer is simple .... TO GET AN INTERVIEW.

So if someone like me thinks being in the National Honor Society is a hiring attribute (because he did it) - then,  by all means,  get it on your resume.

Congratulations Ellen -  you have just created a line on your future resume!

Loyalty Rewards

What defines loyalty?   U.S.A. companies search for the holy grail of brand loyalty in consumers to harvest a lifetime of purchases.  So I began thinking about what companies or products have I been loyal to for over twenty years (since 1996).  Sony, Cincinnati Bell, General Motors, Yahoo, Sams Club, Kroger, Allen Edmonds, Microsoft, Amazon, PNC Bank, Schwab, Verizon, Vanguard, Delta Air, Hertz, Marvel, Duke Energy, Accenture and a few food brands. 

Some of what defines loyalty is "first to market" as is the case with my bank, brokerage,  and wireless provider.  Those relationships are "sticky" and requires effort to change. Others becomes convenience (location/monopoly related), Microsoft, Kroger, Delta Air, etc.

There have been some loyalty tests for many in my list, but each company was able to survive the temporary dissatisfaction with appropriate customer service. 

Loyalty in human relationships (see "Earn a Friend"), or in groups (clubs, ideologies, religion, nationalism etc.) is quite different and not necessarily exclusionary.  Sometimes loyalty is misplaced as duty and recklessly followed to one's demise. 

Loyalty is best described as commitment. Commitment requires passion.  Sustainable passion means willing to forgive.  Loyalty takes time and tests but yields a lifetime of rewards.

 

Values in Smok'in

Rich's May visit this year was packed with activities.  His new Lexus RX350 was once again an example of how he can "out gadget" me.   Clearly it's time for me to get a new car - so we had fun visiting Dealerships to test drive other models (it would be sacrilegious for me to copy a college buddy). 

Rich knew I had no courage to match his gadget challenge when it comes to a car -  but his secondary crowing was about his new Smoker from Home Depot.  That was like "laying down the gauntlet" like the old college days.  SO.... not to be outdone in a lower priced challenge -  Rich and I went out shopping for Smokers. 

Now Rich's Smoker was the traditional charcoal type so I needed my Smoker to be different (naturally).  Originally I had determined propane was the way to "beat" Rich in the gadget category.  Less fuss, Less muss!   I had picked out the propane model and was walking out the store when Rich said .....  "What's this electric one with a remote control?"    That was the ticket -  it was like gadget/technology leapfrogging and I got the Master Built Electric Smoker.

I've had great fun, great times, with friends and family Smok'in Salmon, Ribs, Chicken, and Flank Steak.  I happened to go to MasterBuilt's web site and discovered their Core Values scrolling across the bottom.   WOW -  Simple, to the point, and rich in wisdom - Spoken..... and Smok'in Values!

 

Focus on Plan not Results

"Stick to the plan and let the results take care of themselves" was the instructor's advice in the Investools course that I signed Jenna up for.  Taken from the quote:  "I focus my total attention on trading well and let the results take care of themselves" by Tom Basso in his book "New Market Wizards". 

The mantra I remember at Accenture during my days of implementing manufacturing software (specifically the MRP module - Materials Requirements Planning) was the saying -  "Plan the work and Work the Plan (see blog  Sept. 30, 2010). 

The power of this advice is that the plan provides an objective way of stepping back from the pressure of deadlines and emotional stress about the results.  In trading, the emotions of volatility in stock prices can tempt a trader to react and ignore their rules (e.g. the plan).  That creates unfavorable results from the logic and strategy developed during the planning stage of investing.

Another way of justifying working the plan is that it preserves the investment of time you spent developing the plan in the first place.  If you are questioning results - look at the plan and spend the time thinking about why you change the plan first before taking action.

A constantly changing plan will drive constantly changing results.

DNA of the USA

For a least four years M.S.(mother-in-law) recommended watching Shark Tank and I ignored her suggestion.  Then I discover Jenna and Ellen watching it religiously about two years ago. I became more aware of the program when Cincinnati Tom and Chee (Shark Tank recipients) hosted Social Venture Partners Cincinnati's first "Fast Pitch" (February 2013) competition of Non-Profits. 

It was then I began to occasionally watch episodes with Jenna and Ellen (who were watching the older episodes on our DVR).  Sometime this year, I got hooked and began binge watching the nearly 30 episodes that were filling our the DVR capacity (CNBC syndication started in 2014).

It seems natural that I only discover (I like to believe it is proper vetting) the good shows after the fifth season.  But the reality is that CNBC's flooding the airwaves with promotion helped spark my interest also.

Shark Tank is now in its sixth season with over 100 shows and is in the top 50 programs watched with almost 8 million loyal viewers.

So now when Ellen and I watch (as we did tonight) episodes, I pause the DVR when the entrepreneurs make their offer ($225K for a 15% state) and ask Ellen to value the company.  It doesn't take too many episodes to understand  the Sharks thinking and standard questions - value, sales, trend, margin, competitive landscape, management capability/passion, market size, intellectual capital, product vs company, differentiators, branding, growth potential, and new by products.  What a great show to teach the 18-49 year olds about entrepreneurship.

There is a reason this show is so popular (and on a Friday night)!  It's in our genes - by "it" I mean entrepreneurism - the DNA of the USA.

Billing Honor & Minutia

It's been a long time since one of my boring blogs on technology, customer service and billing - but here goes:

Of course, everyone knows (because I verbally tell the story to everyone that will listen) how much I despise Time Warner and their contractual shenanigans.  That is why, I patiently waited and struggled with Cincinnati Bell on DSL with bundled Direct TV .  Well ---- back in September I was able to sign up for a Fioptics bundle (Phone, Internet, and TV) with Cincinnati Bell.

The story of getting the  Cincinnati billing correct is long ... longer .... and even longest of my stories of dealing with technology providers.  Getting the bill to equal the promotional pricing is an exercise in detail auditing. The story ends well (however there is one last credit I will have to verify next month.

The good news is that Cincinnati Bell has consistently met my expectations (even if it requires a large investment of my time with a rep on the phone).  My bundle is $145.37 per month before fees and taxes.  Naturally those add up to nearly $13.75 (another 9.4%) that are the first "got cha".  But then.....  the fine print in this month's billing  (and I mean really fine print) was the price increases effective 12/15/14  -  $1.99 for Home Pak Lite and $3.00 for Fioptics Internet.  But there was hope - "Your promotional and contractual rate will apply until the expiration date. 

Wow - maybe Cincinnati Bell is different from Time Warner in honoring their negotiated deal.  Sure enough,  Michelle the Cincinnati Bell rep verified that my contractual rate was valid until Sept. 2016!

Now there are other details I could quibble with about Cincinnati Bell's customer service stumbles.  But in the end..... and that's what counts - they honored the expectation I had.

However - it requires extreme attention to billing minutia. 

So That

Last night, I attended the Social Venture Partners (SVP Cincinnati) training session titled "Meetings Suck".  Facilitated by Eric Peguro,  he provided one of the most useful techniques for effectiveness in meetings that I had ever seen (or heard of).  It came down to two words ..... "So That"

I had previously learned (and applied) the concept of being prepared for meetings at Accenture.  I would always ask myself (or the team) to define what we hoped to accomplish in the meeting and what would be the definition of success.  This technique came from the long tradition at Accenture  with written course objectives and learning expectations in every training module at St. Charles. This technique was also a standard requirement in designing system training materials for any installation.

So when Eric said the most critical element of effective meetings was written desired outcomes, I was nodding in agreement.  But he hit the "home run" with his definition of "proper" written outcomes:

(1) The outcome must be a noun (e.g.  document, agreement, understanding, etc.).  NO VERB ALLOWED!
(2)  Add the words  "SO THAT" after the outcome.  This will define the accomplishment expected.

Try it out.

A 3 month action plan .....   SO THAT .... everyone will see our goal and how they fit into the effort.

Eric had many more "jewels" of wisdom in meeting effectiveness making the evening a self help junkies delight.

And Your First Born

Today's tight credit environment continues to prevent people from getting loans.  I remember the refinancing headaches I had in Sept. 2011 with the volumes of documentation required.  Yesterday I received the inch thick confirmation letter that the bank is required to send "In accordance with the Secure and Fair Enforcement for Mortgage Licensing Act (S.A.F.E. Act) of 2008. 

With the consumer protection packet came MLO Registration Number, Credit Score Inquiry, Insurance disclosures, and about 12 state specific forms, housing counseling agency, and other Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) stuff.

You can see first hand. the burden of regulation and over protection that government mandates when they feel guilty about being "asleep at the switch" during the big housing crash.  This layer of inefficiency has not improved the risk of lending - it has impeded the process.

The banks are doing business reluctantly with fear of liability.  The volume of documentation they require is an indication of government mandating how they do business - which assumes government knows how to measure quality credit risk.  Instead of increasing quality and judgment, government is eliminating business judgment.

Don't be surprised when the next lending form will be promising your first born as collateral.