Vaccination Variables

 It's time for me to weigh in on vaccination hesitancy.  

First disclaimers....   I have been researching risks and rewards of vaccination only recently and I am clearly not an epidemiologist  or  vaccination expert. I have a bias related to Jenna's diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes (Jan 2019) directly after a bad reaction to a required flu shot (all nurses were encouraged/required to get a flu shot) in addition to the fact I have never had a flu shot myself. Also I tend to be the equivalent of a Christian Scientist that minimizes all drugs and chemicals in my body.  However I tend to have a philosophy of utilitarianism in evaluating cost/benefits in moral behavior.  I have had COVID-19 (a mild case 12/7/2020) and survived with proof of the antibodies in my blood.  I have not had any direct family members who have died as a result of COVID-19 (although you could say my Dad's passing might be indirectly related). I'm a rusty statistician and have strong opinions about proper statistical analysis, terms and protocol.  I have not received the vaccination and have purposely deferred the decision with the expectation (maybe misguided) that my antibodies give me the necessary protection short tern against reinfection with the variants.  

Now to the point -  I believe the "herd effect" promotion of vaccination is driving momentum to rush to judgement about it's efficacy.   The general population (including the media) misunderstanding of efficacy and effectiveness (along with the fear both serious illness and/or death) has driven the herd to rapidly jump to vaccination as the defacto solution to the pandemic.  Finally - as a rusty statistician - I am appalled by the data not being collected; the lack of control groups; and the rush to judgement on non peer reviewed, small sample size, laboratory based theories, that are being revealed as science proven population truths.  There are long term risks that we can't predict - unknown costs that only time will reveal. 

Weighing this viewpoint against the altruistic "duty" to others becomes the central emotional variable that divides the vaccinated from the unvaccinated (in addition to each individual's self fear of getting the virus).  It is that moral dilemma  that I have studied rigorously for the past 10 years.  My best recommendation is to read  "Justice - What's the Right Thing to Do" or listen to Sandel's Harvard Lectures.  

The press, government (CDC), and vaccinated group would aspire to the practical viewpoint that the few casualties associated with the vaccine over-ride the benefits for the entire population (while justifying that -as and example- the blood clots are not any more than what is experienced in the pre vaccination world).  This says a few deaths are worth "saving" the many.  Yet this same logic could be applied in the macro view - 570K deaths for the 330M affected by non medical interventions (economic shutdown; educational casualties; etc. etc.).  Using numbers (particularly percentages) and elapsed time are the fundamental ways to erroneously argue the philosophy. 

But numbers don't count in the emotional world of individual decision making.  Reason and logic will never trump the spirit and soul inside.  It takes a higher order of philosophy to determine the truth.  It takes looking into the heart to understand motive and action.   

"Inside the envelope of patience there are many letters of forgiveness."   Time is the currency of patience.  COVID has been with us well over 500 days and will likely be with us permanently.  There is much we don't know but we do not have to fear the unknown.