Vaccine Vicissitudes

 My blood started to boil this morning as I continue to read the cascading avalanche of publicity encouraging vaccination - every age, every individual, the entire world.  The fact the vaccinations are authorized only under emergency use has conveniently been forgotten.   The belief of the vaccination effectiveness is justified with any numbers that anyone wants to use.

I personally believe Vitamin C helps prevent the common cold.   Yet the efficacy and effectiveness is still unproven.   The same could be said of this vaccination.   Yet it is being reported as fact.

Here is an article from the Detroit Free Press: "Why people who have contracted COVID-19 don't count toward herd immunity" 

“Contracting COVID does not create the kind of immunity we’re looking for,” Ingham County Health Officer Linda Vail said.

A county official is now the epidemiological expert on herd immunity!   Apparently she hasn't read the non peer reviewed medical study:  

SARS-CoV-2 antibodies remain detectable 12 months after infection and antibody  magnitude is associated with age and COVID-19 severity

But this lack of balanced reporting might be excused except as each state begins to report "Breakthrough Cases" there is a constant rush to judgement of effectiveness of vaccination.

Here's a good example -  Beacon Falls, Connecticut - Citizens News  May 10, 2021  - "State reports COVID cases, deaths among fully vaccinated people"   .   242 people are Breakthrough Cases (14 days after fully vaccinated) among 1.4 fully immunized state residents (presumably 14 days after immunization).  

“The main takeaway is that COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective and cases of infection after a person is fully vaccinated are very rare,” said Dr. Deidre Gifford, the acting DPH commissioner.

It could be this conclusion is 100% correct - infections is very rare after vaccination.  But this data does not prove that conclusion.   But you say ......   0.1%  (242 divided by 1.4 million) is proof enough isn't it?

NO!  Now you ask WHY NOT?

(1) The "fully immunized" population is suspect and likely overstated. Has the 14 days passed?  Did anyone get COVID within the 21 -28 two dose inoculation?

(2) How many non tested, non hospitalized immunized people contract COVID-19 and did not report it?

(3) How does this compare to the non immunized population in the early days of COVID-19 when no vaccination was required?  To make the point there were only 213 people with COVID on 3/08/2020 out of 330 million.

(4) Do the lifestyles of immunized patients mirror the lifestyles of the non immunized?  Maybe that population is more cautious and less susceptible to infection regardless of vaccination.

(5) Not even 1 million had been fully vaccinated in the USA by 1/10/2021) - that is over a year after COVID-19 appeared.   By 1/10/2021 22.9 million positive cases had been reported in USA.  Using even a low multiple of 2 times that would be about 46 million people had already gotten COVID-19 (13.8% of the population).  The probability of contracting COVID for the remaining 286 million has changed (vaccinated or not). 

(6) No one knows what % is needed for "herd immunity"

(7) If you used the "fully immunized" group only as your measure.  The chance of COVID-19 infection has only run it's course for 4 months.  At four months there were only 1 million positive cases of COVID-19 in 2020 out of a population of 332 million.  That percent is 0.3%.  You wouldn't report back then that "cases are very rare".

So if I was a new parent (my new Grandparent status does not count) with young children ages 4-12 would I vaccinate my child?    

Not yet!