The Grandfather Club

 What a inexcusable oversight -  the birth of Theodore Lee Robinson in April.  This inducted me into the Grandparents Club and reminded me of A.M.'s wisdom 10+ years ago.   I was in my 50's and developing my "Decade Planning Document" along with a Vistage Presentation on Longevity.   Since my timeline of family life events was about 10 years behind A.M. and others, I asked the question -"What one lesson (words of wisdom) of your last decade would you share for me as I embark into my 60's?    I remember A.M.'s response distinctly:  "I totally underestimated the Grandfather thing!".  

My first unsupervised babysitting of Teddy was Wednesday evening as Paul was subbing for me at tennis.  The memories caring for Jenna and Ellen as infants flooded into my mind as I was revisiting the football hold, the diaper techniques, burping, rocking and keeping calm in the face of crying.  The hour and half reminded me of how exhausting newborn's can be.   The difference as a Grandfather - the handoff to the Mom :)

This weekend I will miss the Wells Family Reunion which yearly honors the generations.  Dad and Aunt Revae (now 105) will be spotlighted.  The memories of prior generations are the foundations for the new generation to utilize in stewarding forward.  Teddy now enters the world with hope and joy.  The Grandfather club starts the process of passing the memory baton.

Measuring Belief

 Susan just got her blood test back indicating "Reactive" Antibodies - translated by the Nurse Practioner that she has a positive test showing proof of antibodies.  Yet at no time did Susan exhibit symptoms of COVID-19 and in fact was tested at least twice for COVID-19 that was negative. These facts would point to an example of an asymptomatic individual not counted in the almost 34 million USA COVID-19 positive cases.  

Statistically not sound but worthy of note is that in my family nucleus of now six people with constant contact -  two had symptomatic COVID, one asymptomatic,  and three unknowns.  Using normal media extrapolation that would say 50% of the population has been infected with three still unknown.  So it would be natural that COVID cases diminishing.  Do you get the point?

Numbers (single integer series) are a strange thing as time and growth occur.  Fractions and percentages are even more complicated when the numerator and denominator change daily.  

When the skeptics wanted to prove that COVID-19 was no worse than the flu, they used a multiple of 10 times the positive cases for the denominator using sample sizes like my example above.  When various countries (e.g. Sweden, India) declared "victory" on herd immunity, they used small samples and extrapolated that to the population as a whole.   Yet all these analysis were proved in error.  

So declaring victory about the efficacy of a vaccine less than 150 days into implementation in a population base of 34 million known previously infected COVID 19 individuals (likely understated by a multiple of 2-4 times) is a guess without measuring COVID positive cases in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.

So why does the CDC stop measuring this simple statistic?  Why does the CDC continue to promote a voluntary database of incidents?  Why does the CDC re-set the breakthrough cases on May 1 of only hospitalizations and deaths?  Why does the CDC only measure breakthrough cases of 14 days after the fully vaccinated?  Why does the CDC not measure COVID cases of previously infected individuals?  Why does the medical community insist on vaccination of individuals with antibodies and/or not test for antibodies prior to vaccination?

I have a new term for this - measure only what you believe.   Something the religious community is criticized for by the materialistic community.  

 

Vaccine Vicissitudes

 My blood started to boil this morning as I continue to read the cascading avalanche of publicity encouraging vaccination - every age, every individual, the entire world.  The fact the vaccinations are authorized only under emergency use has conveniently been forgotten.   The belief of the vaccination effectiveness is justified with any numbers that anyone wants to use.

I personally believe Vitamin C helps prevent the common cold.   Yet the efficacy and effectiveness is still unproven.   The same could be said of this vaccination.   Yet it is being reported as fact.

Here is an article from the Detroit Free Press: "Why people who have contracted COVID-19 don't count toward herd immunity" 

“Contracting COVID does not create the kind of immunity we’re looking for,” Ingham County Health Officer Linda Vail said.

A county official is now the epidemiological expert on herd immunity!   Apparently she hasn't read the non peer reviewed medical study:  

SARS-CoV-2 antibodies remain detectable 12 months after infection and antibody  magnitude is associated with age and COVID-19 severity

But this lack of balanced reporting might be excused except as each state begins to report "Breakthrough Cases" there is a constant rush to judgement of effectiveness of vaccination.

Here's a good example -  Beacon Falls, Connecticut - Citizens News  May 10, 2021  - "State reports COVID cases, deaths among fully vaccinated people"   .   242 people are Breakthrough Cases (14 days after fully vaccinated) among 1.4 fully immunized state residents (presumably 14 days after immunization).  

“The main takeaway is that COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective and cases of infection after a person is fully vaccinated are very rare,” said Dr. Deidre Gifford, the acting DPH commissioner.

It could be this conclusion is 100% correct - infections is very rare after vaccination.  But this data does not prove that conclusion.   But you say ......   0.1%  (242 divided by 1.4 million) is proof enough isn't it?

NO!  Now you ask WHY NOT?

(1) The "fully immunized" population is suspect and likely overstated. Has the 14 days passed?  Did anyone get COVID within the 21 -28 two dose inoculation?

(2) How many non tested, non hospitalized immunized people contract COVID-19 and did not report it?

(3) How does this compare to the non immunized population in the early days of COVID-19 when no vaccination was required?  To make the point there were only 213 people with COVID on 3/08/2020 out of 330 million.

(4) Do the lifestyles of immunized patients mirror the lifestyles of the non immunized?  Maybe that population is more cautious and less susceptible to infection regardless of vaccination.

(5) Not even 1 million had been fully vaccinated in the USA by 1/10/2021) - that is over a year after COVID-19 appeared.   By 1/10/2021 22.9 million positive cases had been reported in USA.  Using even a low multiple of 2 times that would be about 46 million people had already gotten COVID-19 (13.8% of the population).  The probability of contracting COVID for the remaining 286 million has changed (vaccinated or not). 

(6) No one knows what % is needed for "herd immunity"

(7) If you used the "fully immunized" group only as your measure.  The chance of COVID-19 infection has only run it's course for 4 months.  At four months there were only 1 million positive cases of COVID-19 in 2020 out of a population of 332 million.  That percent is 0.3%.  You wouldn't report back then that "cases are very rare".

So if I was a new parent (my new Grandparent status does not count) with young children ages 4-12 would I vaccinate my child?    

Not yet!

Vaccination Variables

 It's time for me to weigh in on vaccination hesitancy.  

First disclaimers....   I have been researching risks and rewards of vaccination only recently and I am clearly not an epidemiologist  or  vaccination expert. I have a bias related to Jenna's diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes (Jan 2019) directly after a bad reaction to a required flu shot (all nurses were encouraged/required to get a flu shot) in addition to the fact I have never had a flu shot myself. Also I tend to be the equivalent of a Christian Scientist that minimizes all drugs and chemicals in my body.  However I tend to have a philosophy of utilitarianism in evaluating cost/benefits in moral behavior.  I have had COVID-19 (a mild case 12/7/2020) and survived with proof of the antibodies in my blood.  I have not had any direct family members who have died as a result of COVID-19 (although you could say my Dad's passing might be indirectly related). I'm a rusty statistician and have strong opinions about proper statistical analysis, terms and protocol.  I have not received the vaccination and have purposely deferred the decision with the expectation (maybe misguided) that my antibodies give me the necessary protection short tern against reinfection with the variants.  

Now to the point -  I believe the "herd effect" promotion of vaccination is driving momentum to rush to judgement about it's efficacy.   The general population (including the media) misunderstanding of efficacy and effectiveness (along with the fear both serious illness and/or death) has driven the herd to rapidly jump to vaccination as the defacto solution to the pandemic.  Finally - as a rusty statistician - I am appalled by the data not being collected; the lack of control groups; and the rush to judgement on non peer reviewed, small sample size, laboratory based theories, that are being revealed as science proven population truths.  There are long term risks that we can't predict - unknown costs that only time will reveal. 

Weighing this viewpoint against the altruistic "duty" to others becomes the central emotional variable that divides the vaccinated from the unvaccinated (in addition to each individual's self fear of getting the virus).  It is that moral dilemma  that I have studied rigorously for the past 10 years.  My best recommendation is to read  "Justice - What's the Right Thing to Do" or listen to Sandel's Harvard Lectures.  

The press, government (CDC), and vaccinated group would aspire to the practical viewpoint that the few casualties associated with the vaccine over-ride the benefits for the entire population (while justifying that -as and example- the blood clots are not any more than what is experienced in the pre vaccination world).  This says a few deaths are worth "saving" the many.  Yet this same logic could be applied in the macro view - 570K deaths for the 330M affected by non medical interventions (economic shutdown; educational casualties; etc. etc.).  Using numbers (particularly percentages) and elapsed time are the fundamental ways to erroneously argue the philosophy. 

But numbers don't count in the emotional world of individual decision making.  Reason and logic will never trump the spirit and soul inside.  It takes a higher order of philosophy to determine the truth.  It takes looking into the heart to understand motive and action.   

"Inside the envelope of patience there are many letters of forgiveness."   Time is the currency of patience.  COVID has been with us well over 500 days and will likely be with us permanently.  There is much we don't know but we do not have to fear the unknown.