Truth and Consequences

Truth will reveal itself over time.  Consequently arguments are really about time - should we wait or not in our decisions today.  Probability adds into that equation and expected values.  And so the argument continues about COVID-19 and the decisions that are being made - individually, community, nationally and globally.

Questions about the utility of life and what measures we take to save lives we constantly be argued.  Close to 75% of all deaths in the USA are the result of 10 causes (top three are 50%) -  Heart Disease, Cancer, Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease, Accidents, Stroke, Alzheimer's, Diabetes,Influenza and Pneumonia, Kidney, and Suicide.

So add three of them up - Respiratory (147K), Influenza (55K) and Suicide (43K) -  245K deaths.  Now put the cost of a life into this equation - let's assume $10 million (Value of Life) per life.  So we lose $2.45 Billion a year in lives for these three conditions.  This is likely overstated since the value of one's life varies over time and the older you are the less future earned income you can produce.  But save that thought for a different blog entry.

Let's switch to USA GDP - $21.73 Trillion and growing at 2-3%.  So here is the question -   What reduction of the GDP growth rate would you accept to save 500K lives?

If GDP growth slowed to zero in 2020 (say down 2.4% -see  Coronavirus could cost the Global Economy $2.7 Trillion. Here's How) the that would be a cost of $522 Billion.  Would you accept a $522 Billion economic opportunity loss to save 500K lives?

Bloomberg  3/6/2020  Coronavirus Could Cost the Global Economy $2.7 Trillion

Back to the equation of $10 million a life -  $5 Billion for 500K lives.  Here is where the logic breaks down - let the 500K die to save the economy.  It's 10 times the return on life.

Looking at it a different way - "At least $26 Trillion in global market capitalization has been lost since February"  (Goodbye, Dow 30,000! Hello Dow 10,000?). Obviously this drop is not entirely due to COVID-19 - but assume 50% was - $13Trillion.  What would if have been worth to prevent COVID-19 from entering the USA back in February?  What would it be worth to stop COVID-19 from spreading, get back to work, and put calm back into the Stock Market?

As you can tell - I have no answers, only questions.   Our governmental officials must wrestle with these questions but ultimately they must "bet" on time - act now or wait and see.  Different states are being allowed to make their own bets.  The Federal Government provides oversight and can "Trump" their decisions.  When is the right time for that?

Truth will be known this time next year and the historic bloggers that were right will point out their prowess.  Those that we wrong will justify their logic and decision "at that time".

Everyone will claim the Truth - yet no one knows the Truth.