Micro vs Macro Views

Some might title the micro view of this crisis "Looking out for #1" ( like the 70's book by Robert Ringer) - it all comes down to "How will the COVID-19 affect me and my family?

For two weeks I've been looking through the rear view mirror at COVID-19 data (Worldwide, USA and State). Even trying to forecast the traffic pattern and peak rush hour risk in the future (with limited success).  But how do you predict what's happening on the local road you are traveling on?  How can you predict how many cars are on YOUR local road and how many are on the road miles ahead of your present position?   More cars are entering the road hourly, more probability of collision with the chance of major accident with possible fatal outcomes.

That took me to the Seattle and King County road map.  Why not see what happened there where the first car entered the USA highway network.

I was amazed at the quality of the Seattle and King County Public Health site and Coronavirus Dashboard:

As a Statistician, I know it is dangerous to pick one data point especially since at least 55 of the cases and 20 of the deaths in King County are related to one physical site - Life Care Center of Kirkland.  This instance makes up almost 10% of the County Deaths all of which were probably residents over the age of 80.   But even with that outlier this data is worth reviewing.

Here are my observations  (rounded for convenience):
(1)  87% of those tested  are Negative
(2) Number of tests per day is about 1K
(3) While the compounded growth rate since the first instance (2/28) to April 4 is 29%, the daily percentage increase was about 4% for April 4th.
(4) More Men than Women test Positive  (W-11%;  M-16%)
(5)You don't want to be 80+ in age (Death % of Positive Cases = 24%)
(7) Best to be under 60  0.8% (Death % of Positive Cases)
(8) Better to be female that male (W-8% Death; M-6% Death)

When looking at the micro view - the fear depends on your age and sex (also pre-existing health issues as reported elsewhere). Now suddenly the potential solutions become more individualized.

The micro view would focus on individual quarantine and age and health based physical/social distancing or shelter-in-place.  This might be a ramp-up strategy for restarting the US economy.

Whether micro of macro, the actions to take will be an experiment we will all have to live with and learn from for future outbreaks.