Macro vs Micro Views

Two weeks ago, I posted the data I felt was most meaningful - outcomes only- recovery and deaths. The March 22 Death rate % of closed cases was 12.93%

The new Death Rate (April 5th) on closed cases is 20.78%. Not good. 

Yet the debate in the USA polarized by an election year continues to rage about what actions on a local, state and federal level should be taken to mitigate the virus impact on human life and economic hardship.

I have even flip flopped emotionally on the cost/benefit of the various lockdowns.   My opinion toggles between looking at the data from a macro view (lock it down) to the micro view (let the youth go free).

Today's blog is the Macro view.  I have compiled the comparison of 5 countries - USA, Italy, Germany, China and S. Korea for the inflow and death outflow.

The two line charts of logarithmic and the desired view is the flattening of the curve (meaning the growth rate stops).  China's line goes almost completely flat (somewhere at 30-40 days) and S. Korea has a very minor slope (after 15-20 days).  Not so good a picture for USA, Italy and Germany well past the 30 days and growing.

The macro/global view would favor locking down the country using Federal control until the curve flattens and deaths level out.  This benefits not only the country involved but provides containment within a country and favors an international containment strategy.

However the micro view (wait for a subsequent blog) favors a more liberal view and focuses on just the threatened age group and those with pre-existing conditions.