Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Percentage Wars - Unconvincing

 The misuse of data and simple percentages continues - this time on the side of the immunity fight of COVID survivors.  The trouble is that it takes getting data from other countries to even address the truth about immunity (the CDC does not even capture cases by previous infection).




Here is the article from Israel -  "Natural infection vs vaccination:  Which gives more protection?"

Notice the same error of oranges to apples comparison:   

"With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already infected with COVID".

"By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection, with over 3,000 of the 5,193,499, or 0.0578%, of Israelis who were vaccinated getting infected in the latest wave."

Using a denominator of all known positive cases since COVID inception and a numerator of vaccinations that started nearly a year later is just plainly errant!  Can you see the other error?

How can my analysis be so simple and yet unconvincing :)

"According to a report by Channel 13, the disparity has confounded – and divided – Health Ministry experts, with some saying the data proves the higher level of immunity provided by natural infection versus vaccination, while others remained unconvinced."

It's no wonder confusion continues.

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