Boston Legal #21 - COVID or NOT

 Thursday Sept. 17 was another "mini" Boston Legal with just smokes and drinks imposed by the outside gathering constraints of COVID-19. Hosted at the Councilrock location, the days of Cincinnati gatherings may be limited as J.P. exits soon.   Zoom calls would be a weak substitute but predicting any future of 2021 is futile.  

No theme was even attempted for the evening other than to end in the frustrated feeling around our views of the threat of COVID-19.  Looking at the numbers daily, I can easily see (even in myself at that age) the college age attitudes of "get it  and get it over with".  As fall approaches our vigilance needs bolstering right at the time of weary fatigue.  

Today's news from United Kingdom predicting a fall growth in COVID-19 cases predates an October Halloween scare and created a market selloff.  Will a similar second wave occur like the 1918 Spanish Flu?  Even the hope of an early vaccine could be no different than the misguided belief that aspirin would control the Spanish Flu and may have contributed to deaths due to aspirin poisonings. The only sure thing we know is how much we don't know.

Weary not Worry is now my word for this crisis.  Lament not Laugh is the emotion.   What not Why is the thought exercise.  Hope not Helpless is the attitude.  

  

 

DESERVED or DESIRED

The BIG surprise for Ellen ended up being only a partial one today.  For years Ellen has wanted me to purchase a BIG TV and every trip to Sams Club we would look and look and I would tease her saying "Some day soon I would replace our TV.  The old Sony KDS 50A2000 SDRX (Vintage 2006) would just not bite the dust and it's HD 1080i backlit projection was "good enough" (and ahead of it's time).  

But the power of suggestion (by A.S.) and the building boredom of shelter in place lit the fuse and rekindled the fire of High Definition Desire.  The bomb dropped on August 1 at midnight with the super August 1 sale - call it the COVID-19 purchase bomb.

For a month prior to this sale I had been in analysis/paralysis mode over features and cost.   Should I go BIG (80+ inches)?  Should I go high tech (OLED)?  Was 60hz or 120 hz refresh rate required?  The feature list was endless.  Again paradox of choice sets in (which is great for the frugal gene.

In the end, it was the sale price and gift card incentive that trumped the variables - final price $9.12 per inch.  Yes, I settled for the LG 75" Class 4K UltraHD w/AI ThinQ - 75UN7370).  But... alas the low cost was absorbed with all the add-ons -  wall mount, sound system, and who knows what else will follow.

So it was the wall mount that ruined the BIG surprise for Ellen since it arrived at home today while she was at home.  So I had to spill the beans early.  However the excitement builds as we both await the TV and sound system next week.  That gives me plenty of time to ponder the math of proper viewing height, distance and viewing "footprint".  The old Sony 50 inch had 1068 sq inches (16:9) of viewing pleasure and the 75 inch LG weighs in at 2042 sq inches - a 91% Improvement!

This purchase demonstrates the challenge of desire over need in our consumerism obsession.  As Susan rightly indicated - "We don't NEED a new TV".  But the desire dangerously developed as depression dived deeper daily :)

COVID-19 is changing behaviors exponentially in addition to its spread - attitudes about home life, entertainment, travel, work, technology, relationships, health and yes .......  even age and mortality.

My first BIG HD TV screen size was justified based on age. After all I had turned 51 - I DESERVED a 50 inch TV.  Now at 65, I guess I DESIRED something larger than my age.

Choose Your COVID-19 Variable

It has been 183 days of gathering COVID-19 statistics and Day 165 of my shelter in place caution.  On March 1, 2020 I began using World Health Organization data to track cases and deaths in the USA (62 cases and 0 deaths).  I switched to Worldometer Coronavirus on March 24th and started tracking local statistics in April.

Like a good statistician and forecaster, I kept track of my predictions of when hospital beds and/or ICU beds would hit capacity based on some swags about 15% of Cases Hospitalized, 5% ICU and an average of 7 days in hospital using the current daily compounded growth rates.

In the highest daily growth phase (30-35%) early March it was easy to predict without major reduction in growth rates the USA would run out of beds in early April. On April 2 the compound growth rate had dropped in half to 15% and was rapidly decreasing each day (from 15% to 2.3%) so that by May 13 a reasonable 1.5% daily growth rate seem stabilized.   Yet even with that growth rate I was predicting capacity of ICU bed availability by June 16. 

Where was my error?  It was the SWAG of 15% Hospitalization and 5% ICU along with average 7 days in either condition. 

Now with more data the hospitalization numbers are more revealing.   NY Times reported yesterday that USA hospitalization is hovering near the peak of 59,940 on April 15 (on that day the USA had 644,089 Positive Cases; 28,529 Cumulative Deaths; 48,701Recovered; 566,859 Active Cases; and a daily growth rate in positive cases ranging from 4-6%).  That is only 10.6% of the Active Cases.  Consequently my SWAG was double that (20% for both hospitalization and ICU).

Now with more revealing hospitalization numbers the average time in hospital of 7 days was grossly understated and is more likely 22 days depending on age (see Indiana Article - Average COVID-19 Hospital Stay Greater Than Three Weeks).

So  what am I predicting now?    Based on a 1.8% Daily Growth Rate in Positive COVID-19 cases and 10% Hospitalization of Active Cases (which decreases from 49% of Cases by 0.25% daily) - then....  we WILL NOT run out of Hospital Beds.  However ICU may be strained by early October (assuming 2% of the active cases require ICU). 

BTW -  A 1.8% growth rate is still dangerous!  With USA cases at 4.17 Million on 7/23/2020 and a 1.8% Daily growth unchecked the USA will have 66 million positive cases by Christmas.

Holy or Hollow

I missed the blog on July 1 - a milestone for Dad - his 95th birthday.  So many memories of spending time together on his birthday because of summer visits around the July 4th holiday.  So sad that this time I'm restricted from physically seeing him due to Nursing Home rules in this COVID-19 crisis.

Dad's lifestyle and genes have contributed to his longevity.   His Dad lasted to 102 and his Aunt to 110.  Most of my home video collection was during the years Dad was approaching his retirement (1991 - 2005) when he was 66.  Now I'm close to that age and as I see him in videos it makes me understand how quickly life progresses.  When you look back it looks fast with short runways and when you look forward it seems slow with endless runway.

COVID-19 has placed generational differences directly into the spotlight.  Thirty to forty years of difference is clearly identified in the infections and deaths.  I wonder what Dad thought his runway would be at age 66.  My father-in-law died at age 69 and that had great impact on me.   Even now I consider carefully what my next four years would be like should my runway end prematurely.

So many people avoid thinking about the end of breath in this world.  Yesterday was the completion of the study of Matthew with the Wednesday morning BC 715 (Breakfast Club at 7:15am).  We discussed Matthew 27:52-53 (bones resurrected) which the theologians notes reference Ezekiel 37  (dry bones).  Coincidentally Ezekiel 37 was Day 5 of the Daily Devotional book I am reading "40 Days with the Holy Spirit"  by Jack Levison. 

"We adopt compromised values that numb us to real life.  We accept practices that inoculate us from real faith.  We absorb distractions that derail us from pure spirituality.  We become ...... sarkikos: merely human.  Our longings shut down. We stop hungering and yearning for for GOD altogether.  We need resurrection."  Day 5 pg 17

COVID-19 is taking breath from many;  making dry bones for many;  exposing the values, practices and distractions of being "merely human".   How will you respond?    Holiness or Hollowness?

Boston Legal #20 - Fellowship of the Rings

Thursday June 25th was the 20th Boston Legal almost 7 years to the day when we first decided to create the tradition - https://garenwisner.blogspot.com/2013/06/cincinnati-legal.html.  K.C. hosted the during the original idea and so it was fitting we sat poolside for the 20th meeting talking about world affairs, philosophy, books, movies, and family. 

An interesting topic came to the surface about family heirlooms - the stuff that carries generational memories.  It caused me to document the history of a cosmetic costume jewelry ring that my Grandmother wanted her descendants to have.  It was a nugget ruby glass ring in a bezel setting  with a yellow gold ornamental filigree setting. 

It was given to my Grandmother by Vingie E. Roe (a cousin of my Grandfather).  Vingie E. Roe was the granddaughter of Cyrenus Frank Castanien and considered an accomplished American novelist and screenwriter (for B&W silent movies).  She wrote more than 30 novels, mostly Westerns "with a feminist twist".  I suspect Vingie (19 years older than Grandmother) was looked on as the "rich and famous" and connected to Hollywood.   When my Grandparents took a vacation and drove from Oklahoma to California (in the 40's) they stopped by to see Vingie Roe. Vingie gave the ring to Grandmother out of kindness and as a trip memory.

Susan like the design of the ring and I decided to have a copy made for her to wear.  Coincidentally the copied ring was given to Susan - Christmas 2001 which was the opening of the movie "The Fellowship of the Ring.

There are actually 4 more copies so that each granddaughter (should they like it also) could have a ring just like the original. Hence the family heirloom might pass through yet another generation.

Great ideas and discussions come from the fellowship of the Boston Legal trio.  This incented me to find the rings - document the story and research the history of the movement of the ring.

How interesting it would be if Rings could Sing their story.

Emotional Volatility

I am rapidly getting weary (as many in the USA are) with shelter-in-place; gradual reopening; social distancing; masking; and virtual meetings.   While I have poked my head out of the turtle shell with meetings outside with friends; doubles tennis; and even social distancing/masking small group and worship activities;  I am tired of the constant news and conversations about COVID-19.  My time at home is now approaching the 100th day.

I continue to monitor with my own statistical model the various World, USA, State and Local data.  Even know the number of cases in my zip code (25) with hospitalizations (7) and deaths (under 3). The numbers are getting large which contributes to smaller growth rates. 

The USA stock market seems to be in the twilight zone with a V shaped recovery, sprinkled with radical emotional volatility based on news of the day.  If my attention to the market and renewed trading activity is any indication of a trend then there are lots of people speculating and creating volatility with zero commission costs of "nervous energy ".   My prior Financial Advisor (T.A.) said it best - "Nervous energy is one of the greatest destroyers of wealth".

The recent outrage of George Floyd's death with demonstrations, protests, and autonomous zone anarchy I believe escalated as a result of the rapid growth in emotional stress associated with COVID-19 and the shut down of the economy.  Oh.... stir in a dose of polarized red state and blue state political fear of the next election and you get a perfect storm of emotional pressure ready to blow up. 

What's the vaccine for emotional volatility?   Find what eliminates your nervous energy.

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Not Catbird, or Bobcat - Albino Peacock

This shelter in place has provided nature and us more time to understand each other.   SO -  a story of the last four weeks is worth sharing.

In late April, Susan texted me a picture of an albino Peacock that she assured was indeed a peacock as confirmed by our landscaper.  How interesting 10 years ago we had sighted an albino Squirrel in our neighborhood which has disappeared.   So, I placed no hope is seeing the peacock myself.

However,  when I was clearing some brush in our backyard (Saturday May 2), the Peacock sauntered across the yard.

Everyone that I have shared this with say.... NAH... that's just a turkey.

OK - hold that thought (the mysterious large white fowl).

For the past month Ellen has been hearing a crying meow of a cat each evening.  Once she pointed out the muffled sound, I began hearing it regularly also and would walk around the house saying "Here Kitty Kitty" attempting to find the distressed kitty.

OK - hold that thought (the distressed kitten mystery). 

About three weeks ago  (Monday May 4th)  as J.R., A.M. and I were sipping an adult beverage in my backyard, J.R. pointed out the large open wound on Bella's  (my female dog) hind end.   On later inspection there were also wounds on her shoulder blade and Fitch (the male dog) also had just recovered from his own wound in his hind quarters.   Somehow the dogs were getting hurt.

OK - hold that thought (the wounded outdoor dogs).

Back in early February,  I was out one night wondering why the dogs were barking so much.  I flipped on the back porch light and in the distance on the edge of our grass yard, a coyote was taunting the dogs.  He ran back into the woods briefly on the sight of my presence, only to become comfortable and race back into the yard confronting the dogs.

OK - hold that thought (the aggressive coyote theory).

Susan was up early Sunday morning (May 9th) and heard the distressed kitten sound at the side of our house. That morning she mentioned that maybe the sound wasn't a feline but a bird.  Maybe a bird makes a sound like a cat -  maybe a catbird?    So we google "Catbird" and play the sound....   no luck the sound didn't come close.   So I have the brilliant idea (based on the wounded dogs) maybe there is a Bobcat in the neighborhood.   I google Bobcat sounds and discover they indeed make a sound similar but not exactly what we have been hearing.

OK - hold that thought (the potential Bobcat theory)

In describing the Bobcat theory to as many people that would listen to my stories, I would get various comments back.  Yes, there are Bobcats in the area.  Yes, they are good for the area since they thin the coyote ranks.  However, they are recluse and likely would not be aggressive with dogs.  But .... for the next two weeks the Bobcat theory reigned. Then more evidence arrived at the foot of the garage door.

What have we here?    The skull of a ????????   Brought forward from Bella - the hunter.

OK - hold that thought (the mysterious animal skull bone)

Our landscaper returned to mow the lawn (Saturday May 30).    Diplomatically he listened to our theory but put the pieces of the puzzle together - and offers the Sherlock Holmes explanation:

What you are hearing is the albino Peacock (since he was an expert at making the Peacock call himself).  The dogs might have been wounded from a confrontation with an aggressive coyote or just got into their own internal squabble.  The deer head skull is evidence the coyotes were feasting somewhere near the dog's perimeter that allowed Bella to retrieve the skull of a deer.

OK -  you now need verification - right?   SO yesterday with J.R., A.M. and A.S.,   I decide to reiterate the LONG story above while playing the Peacock sound.  While playing that sound outside,  within the hour A.S. said....."I don't believe it -   there it is .....  and next to the bird feeder the Albino Peacock had arrived. 

CASE CLOSED  - Not a Catbird or Bobcat  -  an Albino Peacock

Addendum/Editorial Correction:

The WHITE Peacock is one of the most beautiful and rarest fowl in the world. It is not Albino since the eyes are blue.  The white color symbolizes purity, eternity and unconditional love.  

Source:  HOBI TERNAK