Wordle Waste or Wonder?

Ellen knowing my daily obsession with Wordle, gave me a book for my 68th birthday - "Wordle Challenge - 500 puzzles to do anywhere, anytime".  She introduced Wordle to me a year ago after a visit with her Uncle D'Lane and Aunt Ann (Ann must be the actual player).  Her hint was that Ann (the librarian) uses the word ASILE as the first seed word.   I used that word religiously until T. H. (Vistage Vet) suggested the best seed word is TRAIN. I'm amazed that I didn't try to research this based on frequency.    

I must admit that TRAIN (followed by CLOSE) has been the most successful for me lately.  Today, I did not do particularly well as the picture shows.   However, it does reflect my strategy to just "go for it" when I have 4 of five letters and multiple word choices versus playing conservatively to uncover the most likely fifth letter. This would be an interesting statistical profiling of risk takers.

I haven't tried to read all about the optimal strategies or use Wordlebot to understand the best possible starting word.   However, an interesting mathematical article caught my attention - "The Math Behind Wordle Guesses".  

Based on this article, I may try to start with the seed word RAISE.  The article states that there are 2,309 answers in the Wordle domain.  There are other geeky questions to ponder - "Is it better to get a yellow or green reveal?" 

In a "comparisonitis" world, I must confess I did try to look up the average distribution of a Wordle player (even with cheaters) to see how I compare.  Yes, you can find anything on the internet "Average Wordle Score" (see Wordle #534 for Dec. 5, 2022).  And who believes that 2% of the 23,153 players (2,200 hard mode) guessed WOKEN on the first try?

And if that isn't enough, there is a youtube guy (with 333 plays) that guesses each of the words interactively each day that you can watch.  I feel a little better that he took 6 tries on WOKEN.  

If this is Wordle 534 of 2,309 possible words, then we are only 23% done.  If it is like my obsession playing Words with Friends with Ellen, I may only last for another 100 days.  

A fun daily puzzle that puts boundaries around wasting time :)

PS - I've decided to switch to "hard mode" (a settings toggle switch) - that requires you use a revealed letter on the next guess.  After all I want to be considered a "hard mode" player!

Weans - Digging Deep

 As we discussed folklore, legends and mythology in the Wednesday Men's Bible Study Group 7:15BC, a memory popped into my mind about a High School reading assignment.  I described a futuristic story about a discovery of a newspaper fragment in a city dump (sort of like the Dead Sea Scrolls) with the associated misconceived interpretation of the history the artifact partially revealed.

How ironic how my own memory can distort the actual story that I had read.  History is full of misinterpretations by the present artifact found or memory passed on.  

Upon extensive searching the internet, I discovered (and then remembered) the actual short story I was assigned to read.  It was a 1956 reprint of a Harpers Magazine article "Digging the Weans" by Robert Nathan. That article and others was compiled into a book titled "The Weans".  

An Archaeological Satire:   Who were these Weans, whose eastern coast was guarded by a ferocious giantess, who worshipped (among others) a root deity and danced when the spirit came down, and whose final destruction and disappearance is shrouded in mystery?

"I have called these people the Weans, because certain archaeological findings incline us to the belief that they called their land the We, or the Us; actually, in the southern part of the continent, the word Weuns (or Weans) does appear, as wen as the glyph for \Vealls, and the word Theyuns."

In the search for Truth - digging deep may not be the only answer.  

To Many Twos

I missed the ultimate numerology blogging event 2-22-22 at 22:22:22 GMT.   What reminded me of it was reading a very interesting book - "VERY, VERY, VERY DREADFUL - The Influenza Pandemic of 1918" by Albert Martin.  It interweaves the Spanish Flu History with WWI and referenced the signed armistice that would take effect 11-11-11 (the 11th hour, of the 11th day of the 11th month of the year 1918.  

Amazing trivia was that: 

"Many soldiers on both sides, wanted the honor of firing the last shot of the war.  As wristwatches ticked off the final minutes, it seemed every gun on the Western Front cut loose at once...Men called this the 'mad moment'.  And in that moment, more than 10,000 men including 3,000 Americans, were killed or wounded for nothing" (Source: Armistice - The End of World War I, 1918 (eyewitnesstohistory.com) and November 11th 1918 - History Learning Site)

What will we remember about 2-22-22 at 22:22:22 GMT?    Maybe the beginnings of WWIII?

COVID Resolutions

 I have already violated one of my New Years Resolutions - "Stop the obsessive data collection of COVID-19 statistics".  Alas - last night I am back "on the wagon" and reading all kinds of COVID porn.  One of the antivaxer sites was spouting about a CEO of an Indiana Life Insurance company claiming that deaths for 18-64 year old working adults in Indiana have increased 40% and the deaths were not due to COVID.  Hmmmmm  sounds suspicious.  

My blog is not about fact checking that claim or article - but it launched me back into the CDC death statistics for the USA as a whole. Naturally they lag by a year.  Eurika - I found the stats and listened to the podcast and downloaded the pdf report - 2020 FINAL Death Statistics.

Here is my personal summary.  2020 had 3,383,729 deaths in USA an increase of 528,891 over 2019 - 18.53%.  The podcast does a good job of explaining COVID contributing deaths and COVID underlying deaths.   Simply put - 2020 COVID Underlying deaths were 350,831 and the third largest contributor to deaths in 2020. So that leaves the question - why did 2020 Non COVID deaths increase 170,060 (6%)?  The same excess is being investigated in the United Kingdom.

The big swings in prior year death rates may be due to the influenza.  There is always the growth rate in deaths that will naturally occur with the aging baby boomers.  But this number seems outside of statistical norms.    

The lockdown and fear of hospitals may have kept many people from getting necessary treatment.  Homicides in 2020 are at the highest level since 1995 (7.8 per 100,000).   Drug overdose for 12 months ending 4/2021 was 100,306 and increase of 28.5% over the 78,056 drug overdoses from the comparable 12 months in last year.  It CAN NOT be vaccine related (as the antivaxers might jump to), since EUA for Pfizer was only authorized 12/11/2020.  

You pick the poison/reason.  

Maybe the will to live is at play when faced with a mountain of suffering all around us and the infinite chasm of despair that lies under a mysterious knock at the door of hope.  

I have blogged before about the statistical correlation of holidays, key dates (birthdays), etc. that once achieved, death occurs.  Could our energy to live just petered out?

At our last Vistage Veteran's monthly meeting we discussed any New Year's Resolutions that each of us had for 2022.  We are "old white guys" (and of privilege) and unanimously had no comment.  Could that be because of our stage/age in life or might there be a COVID cloud affecting us also?

From the CDC report life expectancy at birth for 2020 (for males) is 76.3 (so that applies to Teddy).   For those age 65 at 2020 the male has 18.2 years and female 20.8 years remaining.  I'm older than 65 and let's confidently (or arrogantly) say, as a COVID survivor, I am healthier than average.  So assuming I have 16 - 28 years left to live, several questions came to my mind last night:

(1) What do I want to accomplish in the next 16-28 years?  What are my hopes and dreams?

(2) What did I accomplish in the last two COVID years (2020 and 2021)? 

(3) What didn't I accomplish in the last two COVID years (due to self-inflicted FEAR)?  Or how did I let COVID impede my hopes and dreams?

(4) What will I do differently in COVID 2021 to not let COVID interfere with my hopes and dreams?

I need some COVID Resolutions :)

Christmas 2021

Wisner Family (et al) December 2021

The circle of life surrounded the Wisner’s with plenty of change – a year of lost and found.  Joy is on the inside of suffering and finding that Joy took plenty of labor.  One Grandpa left us making some Leeway possible for another. This year we all discovered how much assisted living is necessary for each of us to both give and receive at every time in our life.  We are so grateful for the present – and the memories that are permanent.

Garen (“ ____ the Halls”) -  Man he looks good (in the Mirror that is), with his home maid haircuts.   Some call him a COVID Rogue with no verbal escape – can his hearing or speech be overpowered by even twin turbos?  Now a Vistage Veteran (or Hero), his entire focus has been Outback – chainsaw corridor, ____ design, pool potential, fire features, or grill gravitas.  Hands down, he travels in 4.2l uber select style.

Susan (“____ it’s Cold Outside) – Nana is now her Chosen name – Frozen in time but infinitely available for ____ tag team troubleshooting.  She makes a point of outside needles only for special stockings.  Restless in many ways, no medical mystery means much (Medicare in the making).  Susan expands her consulting business into real estate, hair styling, Euclid landscaping, J.H. Catering, and Dyson distributor. 

Ellen (“It’s the Most Wonderful ____) – It was a Rocky year for Ellen, but she Wrangled through her COVID infection.  A litter later, she vaxed up to New York City in frannic fashion.  Wasson Way welcomed her with whiskers when work waned.  Fidelity found favor in her free form phone finesse (and Flex-____).  

Jenna, Paul, & Teddy (“___ to the World”) – Now in the family business, Teddy arrived (4-13-2021) for his orientation and requires full time, stay at home, supervision 😊.   This new payroll pressure pushed Jenna to pick up Accounting versus picture projects.  Now the Aura is Teddy until the shining metal smile disappears.  Paul has the juvenile ___ in jabber, jumpy, juggling of jamboree….. and job. 

Yoshi & Cleo (“_______ Around the Christmas Tree”) – After 14 years Rambo and ______, no longer rule the house (inside that is).  Yoshi has exclusive prowl since Cleo prefers Ellen as her roommate.  Ollie roams Euclid when Wally takes vacation visits wearing out Fitch and Bella.   Without pets who could survive COVID isolation?

Travel was limited to sunny spots – Sea Island, Kiawah, and Naples (with a Dallas stop off). Now a full family of antibodies, social activities can resume.  Holiday gatherings test the paradox of friendship and love – apart or together.  Circumstances of this world interferes with the relationship glue that love provides.   Keep the Spirit of Love in your heart and let JOY make it overflow to bind us back together in 2022. 

 

                      Merry Christmas & Happy New Year

“Death leaves a heartache no one can heal; love leaves a memory no one can steal.”     Richard Puz    

 

Believing Blogs

There are more reported breakthrough cases of COVID as the Delta variant explodes across the USA.  The CDC no longer tracks breakthrough cases instead focusing on breakthrough hospitalizations and deaths.  Unfortunately this data is highly dependent on state reporting with significant gaps and inconsitent reporting (including the inability to match vaccination data with other health outcome data).  

Ohio began diligently tracking and transparently reporting breakthrough cases beginning August 11, 2021.  There is a compelling difference between the fully vaccinated population vs unvaccinated/partially vaccinated for hospitalizations and deaths for about one month of data reporting.  

Total Hospitalizations 8/11/2021 to 9/20/2021 in Ohio were 6,825 with 5,968 Unvaccinated or Patiallly Vaccinated and 449 Fully Vaccinated and 408 Unknown.  

Total Deaths 8/11/2021 to 9/20/2021 in Ohio  were 685 with 637 Unvaccinated or Partially Vaccinated and 30 Fully Vaccinated and 18 Unknown.

The data above is called observational data vs what Statisticians (and the FDA) prefer which is randomized controlled clinical trials which reveal many of the hidden variables. The temptation of observational data and percentages is to attribute the dramatic difference of both hospitalizations and deaths solely on the basis  of one correlated variable -  "fully" vaccinated.  Statistically this is letting one highly correlated variabe "prove" causation.  

Let me cite an example in epidemiology -  A 1991 an observational study hailed the Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) treating symptoms associated with menopause might reduce Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) risk.  But later RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED studies (see Lawlor et. al) , including the large-scale Women's Health Initiative, revealed either a negative relationship or a statistically insignificant one, between HRT and CHD. 

What if I replaced the words .... Unvaccinated and Vaccinated with  excessive BMI (Body Mass Index) and non excessive BMI?   Would that cause you to begin to diet?  I would - what's the harm.  Thus many would take the vaccine based on the same logic.  But that does not "prove" the causation.  

Let me make one final point -   I had a mild case of COVID on December 7th 2020 that did not require hospitalization without vaccination.   Today Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan was reported to be fully vaccinated with a mild case of COVID.   "Today, I tested positive for COVID-19. While I'm currently experiencing mild symptoms, I'm grateful to have the protection of a safe and effective vaccine — and I know without it, this illness could be much, much worse," Ryan said. 

How does Ryan have 95% confidence that the vaccine he took attributed all the benefits to his mild symptoms.  His infection could have been exactly like millions of positive COVID cases prior to any vaccination available (like mine).

I'm not suggesting these vaccines are not effective.  We have Randomized Controlled clinical trial data showing efficacy.  However after unblinding these trials and relaxing the full clinical trial timelines, and follow-on studies there is chance we will never know the long term risks and rewards.   

What's the old adage with my addendum:  "Believe nothing you hear and only half of what you see"  ...... and believe the opposite of what you read in someone's blog.  

Infinite Boosters

I continue to daily post in my own personal spreadsheet COVID statistics and read as quickly as I can the various medical study reports.  Nearly all these reports are available prior to any peer review process and picked up by the media for purposes of publishing COVID - PORN.  I will self admit I am addicted to all this COVID -PORN no different from the individual red state or blue state political addict is to watching Fox News or MSNBC.  

However -  I am beginning to see some light into the reasonable arguments about natural immunity, lack of randomized trials, even principled and ethical regulators who will not be pressured, bullied, or abandon the proven methods and analysis expected by (and taught for years) scientists, academics and experts trained in the scientific principle. 

During this COVID crisis I've come to love listening/viewing  ZDogg's point of view and interviews with experts.  It has helped form my opinions about this crisis and possibly reinforced some of my objections to the vaccination arguments that are statistically in error or abused.  

The controversy about the booster shot from Pfizer shows how fear, politics, time pressure, greed, and every other human emotional response can reveal the worst in our behaviors and relationships.  The human condition is the need to be right, to be affirmed by others, and.... to prove others they are wrong.  Being Right has become the most important outcome - beyond even survival.  

Several adages come to mind -   "Don't cut your nose to spite your face"; "Whether you are Dead Right or Dead Wrong... You're still Dead";   "Add injury to insult"; "The early bird contracts the Worms"; "Add salt to the injury";  "Don't dig in your heels only to discover you can't walk".

Herd Immunity rings too closely to the term Mob Mentality.  Democracy unchecked makes the Mob "Right".  Social media manufactures what is "Heard" into the Herd.  Simpson's Paradox makes everyone statistically right.