Doubting Garen

One of the traits I acquired working with computers and for Accenture for 25 years was the ultimate skeptic - call me a Doubting Garen.

Several weeks ago I attended a fundraiser for UCAN where the Master of the Ceremonies (MC) passionately described their purpose: a world in which every cat and dog lives to find a loving home and every resident has access to affordable spay/neuter services

At the event the MC stated that "one female cat (that is not spayed) can produce over 425,000 kittens in seven years".  The crowd gasped.  Susan quickly helped me absorb this logic by saying it obviously included all the off spring.  But even with this quick logic check, I was disturbed by the number and unsettled (call it doubt) and wanted to test the underlying assumptions.

So off to the internet I went. 
First found a blog with a similar claim  and some simple assumptions:

http://laanimalshelter.blogspot.com/2009/09/how-many-litters-of-kittens-can-female.html
3 Litters per year

12-18 Kittens per litter

So I constructed my own spreadsheet and added some assumptions (e.g. number of females in each litter – 50%) and calculated 1,346,832.   Hmmm  something seemed very wrong now!  At that rate it would be worse than the plagues of God against the Pharaoh.  There must be some bad assumptions or logic.

Another search brought me to SNOPES -  ah yes the urban legend site that tries to keep the internet honest.

 “How many kittens in 7 years”  http://message.snopes.com/showthread.php?t=15060

The SNOPES  answer is:  100 – 400

 I suspect this is too low based on the residual SNOPE comments about the University of Washington Math Department’s assumptions.  But I decided not to research further.  The key sensitive variable is survival rate to reproductive age.

 

What's the lesson?   Before you accept statistics (numbers) that are dramatic - check your facts.

 

So to practice what I preach -  my next blog will put more facts on the table about the 1.08% growth rate of Christians cited in the Jesus (the Mathematician) blog.

Jesus (the Mathematician)

Susan and I attended the Crossroads Leadership Commitment event Friday evening.  Several incremental money increases "mysteriously" appeared in our lives as we have been prayerfully considering our giving.  You can hear story after story about this "coincidence" from people who have testimonial about God providing.  Yet until it happens to you it just doesn't seem to hold weight (where's the mathematical proof?).  Yet I believe Jesus set up this principle long ago -  here's the story:

 

Little did you know that Jesus  was more than a carpenter.  He had a great knowledge of Mathematics - well of course - since he created everything including math.  Naturally he loved math and its application to his trade.  Late at night, in prayer, Jesus would ponder how long it might take to convert the world population to Christianity?   Now Jesus knew that the population at that time was around 300 million people and growing fast (after all God had promised Abraham when the population was only a million that they would multiply quickly). So how could one human (even though the son of God) convert 300 million people who were doubling every 5th generation?

So Jesus set out to begin the process of converting people to Christianity - each person giving themselves w(HOLY) to  God - through him.  Now it takes some time (spiritual time) to get someone 100% committed to God,  With the "spiritual baking time" dilemma, there were problems of distance and communication technologies in that day and time- you know walking, riding, sailing, and writing.   Jesus knew this was a big challenge - rapid population growth, worldly constraints, the skeptic Pharisees, Roman government regulations, the devil, and the list goes on and on.

Well - let's take a logical break from this problem and talk about the results to date.  The best pollsters have estimated that in 1910 there were 600 million Christian adherents (don't ask me what an adherent is) in a world population of 1.8 billion people (1/3 of the population)  Add another 100 years and by 2010 there were 2.184 billion Christians in a world population of 6.9 billion people (32% of the population).   The good news is, that in just over two thousand and ten years, the Christian population increased from the power of one (Jesus) to over 2 billion. Pretty awesome! - but that still is only a compounded growth rate of only 1.08% - just about what a Certificate of Deposit can get you today.

OK - back to Jesus and prayer.  Jesus knew that the two things most important to humans were their time and money.  After much observation he could see that no one wanted to die (just look at what the Egyptians did) and people were always trying to amass money, power and wealth.  SO - maybe time and money could be used to help him in this challenge?  

That's it!!!   Get as much time and money to speed this process.  But that would have to come from the people and in their lifetime (and that requires serious commitment).  So Jesus decided to preach and promote being  "All In" - a journey of giving.... sacrificial giving. What approach would be most effective?

There was a modest track record of giving ever since Abraham - animal sacrifice, tithing etc.  There were even examples that didn't work real well - Roman taxes.  The key success factor would be to teach (and preach) the exponential power of faithful sacrificial giving.   So, Jesus handpicked a team of twelve disciples to assist him in this quest.  Miracles, speeches, demonstrations (how about those fishes and loaves), and intense praying got the ball rolling but Jesus knew his time was short also.  What more could he do?

He could demonstrate the power of sacrificial giving - showing what 100%  "All In" means.  So the exponential giving seed was planted in the hearts, soul and minds of everyone on earth through the Holy Spirit. The Holy Spirit could now nudge every person in their giving journey to experience the joy of giving w(HOLY) to Christ.  That Holy Spirit is nudging each of us.  Now it's our turn to join the challenge of exponential discipleship through giving - in Jerusalem, in Judea, in Samaria, and the world.

I'm  Garen (the numbers guy) and I'M IN!

X-Rays Bite!

This morning was an emergency visit to the dentist to check on a filling that chipped out of a lower molar. I was past due for the 6 month cleaning (it reminds me of the myth of oil changes every 3000 miles that still persists), so I decided to combine the cleaning with the dentist advice on the problem tooth. 

This is the same tooth that they have been suggesting needed a crown since 2011.   Asking if they could just fill it again was a losing battle and probably a poor stop gap investment. So - I'm resigned to paying the $1,775 for the crown this year.  Check out my February 2, 2012 "Mouth of Gold" rant about the investment that I am continually making in my mouth.

As my hygienist said - "Our goal is for you to die with healthy teeth".   I guess that means I should do this at whatever cost.

This statement came out as the hygienist and I were debating the need for x-rays during this cleaning:

"You haven't ever had the full mouth x-ray (some fancy name machine) since you have been coming, and we haven't done even the four bite x-ray's since June 2014."

" I don't really want any x-rays today"

"Well, it's necessary given you tooth issue - at least the four bite x-ray - we can delay the full mouth for another time:.

"Fine (grudgingly)"

"What's your objection to x-rays?"

"I'm the closest thing to a Christian Scientist about medical stuff.  I don't like taking any medication and frankly don't like what I read about radiation.  There are times I have even limited my use of cell phone."

The great debate starts  ......  With point and counterpoint.  Radiation during flights; Risk of cancer etc.

"Look, my grandfather lived to 102 and had no dental x-rays"

"How was his teeth?"

"He didn't have any." 

"Our goal is for you to die with healthy teeth"   She smiles and thinks the debate is won.

"Good point........(thinking how can I not lose the last word) .......  "But  I would rather live to 102 with no teeth, than to die at 80 with healthy teeth."

Cha Ching!   Debate over - battle won but lost the war.  Paid $68 for 4 Image Bitewings.

National Honor Society

Monday evening Susan and I attended the admitting ceremonies for Ellen into the National Honor Society.  Later that evening I tried to find my 1972 pin, but alas it is buried in some like of nostalgia box in the unfinished basement.

It seemed like half of the junior class at Indian Hill High School were admitted - there were over 60 honored that evening.  Yet it is a milestone and a very important achievement.  Today I was performing mock interviews at Miami University (Oxford) and noticed this on the Freshman's resume.   What a breath of freshness to see - since the advice given at College Placement offices (probably under the illusion from the Human Resource professionals at Corporate America) is to not put High School information on the resume.

I have exactly the opposite point of view.   A junior in college (or even senior) has only 7 years of his/her life to describe and differentiate themselves.  High School today is like junior colleges were in my day in both academics and encouraging other extra-curricular activities.  Why shouldn't that be something the individual be proud of.

As asked the freshman today - "What is the sole purpose of a resume"?   The answer is simple .... TO GET AN INTERVIEW.

So if someone like me thinks being in the National Honor Society is a hiring attribute (because he did it) - then,  by all means,  get it on your resume.

Congratulations Ellen -  you have just created a line on your future resume!

To Shave or Not to Shave

Ellen still has the trump card on my facial hair.  When I asked her the other day if I should shave, she said, "Dad, November is no shave month - so at least you must keep it during November.  So that is the excuse I use now for the  few remaining people in my network who have not seen my new look.

I was wondering if Movember is the same as No Shave November and discovered they are different.  Both promote health - Movember is broadly Men's Health and No Shave November - American Cancer Society.

It's a great branding and awareness concept - but what's the stubble's edge (show me the money)?

 

Movember requests donations to their foundation.  No Shave November asks that the savings of shaving materials during November be donated to the American Cancer Society.

 

Can this branding even come close to the October pink ribbons of Women's Breast Cancer that started in 1991 with the Susan G. Komen Foundation?  These two men's health awareness similar campaigns started in 2003 and 2004 respectively - so they are 12 years behind.

 

So as men decide whether to participate - November will be a question of:

 

 "To shave or Not to Shave". 

 

 

Life to be Lived

"The soul is where hope lives; not a naïve hope that I will, by some miracle, have my former self restored, but hope that tomorrow, and the day after, can still be days from which a measure of joy, and meaning can be derived.  And from hope springs optimism that, even with great limitations, there is life to be lived."  Thomas Graboys "Finding Hope in the Midst of Despair: My Decade with Parkinson's Disease and Lewy Body Dementia"

I just finished the book "Brain Storms" by Jon Palfreman last night and reflected on those people in my life who have or were given the challenge of a long term (and slow term) disease.  The emotional toil of this for the individual and their loved ones can be difficult and trying.  Understanding the causes and implications of suffering and then dealing with a future view of continued suffering is part of the human condition.  But the final sentence of the quote above hit me squarely in the heart - "There is life to be lived."

So we cope, we depend on others, we search for meaning in spite of the suffering.  For many it reveals a path to hope and joy within their soul.  And for many this is a glimpse into who God is.  Suffering has a place for each of us - a way to see limitations and possibilities.  But most of all it shows us that we need more than ourselves.

"Suffering compels us to seek the God that success makes us think we don't need."   Patrick Morley "How GOD makes men"

Driving Tricks or Tips

Ellen and I are the proud Graduates of the Honda Teen Defensive Driving program which we attended at the Mid-Ohio Racetrack on Saturday. 

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It was a full day of both classroom instruction and three driving practice courses of braking, spinning, and collision avoidance. The return trip was great highway practice for Ellen with torrential rain on a crowded highway at night.

Recommended (if not mandated) by A.M. several times, I can see now why this should be something every parent should consider for their new teen driver.  What a great service Honda has done (with other sponsors also) as the primary sponsor and contributor of the practice cars for the students.

So what did a driver like me (of 40+ years) with only one car accident learn?  Actually quite a few new things:

(1) Never hold the steering wheel in a reverse handhold at the top - if you don't want at least two breaks in your wrist when the airbag drives your wrist into your stomach.
(2) In a spin - look to where you want to end up and not at the obstacle you think you are going to hit.
(3) Adjust your sideview mirrors away from any view of the side of the car.  You should see the middle line and white edge of the side road.
(4) Don't use the one car length per 10 miles per hour safe distance rule.  Instead use the 3-5 second rule.  Count 3 seconds from the time the car in front of you passes a landmark to the time you pass from it.
(5) Cell Phones in car?  NEVER USE THEM (even with hands free).  This takes too long to explain - but I'm convinced of the danger. 

So you can teach on old car dog new driving tricks.