Sunday, March 4, 2012

Speed, Data or Location

The need for ubiquitous high speed internet (broadband) and instant access to data is growing exponentially.  From this New York Times chart it is easy to see that technology adoption rates (notice electricity in the 1900's) has compressed from about 50 years to 20 years (see cell phones).  I would love to see a chart showing the adoption rates for  high speed broadband and the exponential rate of downloaded data. 

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Now when our internet speed slows (or there is a break in service) at home, the family cries out for me for technical support.   Once again Cincinnati Bell's DSL service has proven irratic and sporadic (we have been down since Friday).  Like electricity, when the internet is "down" the family activities almost halt.  Access is critical to schoolwork and homework;  Susan has email needs; My blogging;  the list goes on and on.

One answer to this is to avoid the wires and go to wireless broadband (3G or 4G).  The problem with this is that the carriers are limiting the data access by charging about $10 per gigabyte.  Many people thought they were grandfathered with unlimited plans.  Then they discovered their speeds were mysteriously slowing (called throttling). ATT has taken some real grief about "throttling down" the speed of it's "5% heavy data users" and  so unlimited data plans are becoming a thing of the past.  Which is more important (and valued) speed or data or locational access?

My 3G Sprint datacard (which is "grandfathered" on an unlimited data plan) has 600kbs to 1mbs speeds. But what is important to me is the unlimited data and access everywhere - not the speed.  The cost - $60/mth.

The 4G networks advertise speeds of 3-6mbs but limit the amount of data you can use to 4 gigabytes ($30/mth) and charge $10 per gigabyte over the 4 gig maximum.   ATT has an interesting site to estimate your data usage - http://www.att.com/standalone/data-calculator/index.html.  At 5.1megabytes per minute of Netflix streaming video, you can eat up your entire 4gigabyte data plan with 5 - 6 movies. I discovered this limitation in my test of the Droid Bionic.  Or said another way - to watch a two hour movie on your iphone it costs about $6.12 (at the margin).  And that only works effectively on a 4G network because of the need for speeds above 1mbs.  Unfortunately the 4G network limits your access to major metropolitan areas (e.g. location limitations).

I  thought I could gain some "speed" benefit (and save some money) by switching to Sprints 4G unlimited plan only to discover, when Jenna and I went to the store last month, that Sprint had discontinued unlimited 4G plans and even forced prior customers to a maximum of 4 gigabytes.  Below is my data usage for 2011. Notice the data usage has been trending up - and I suspect everyone else is trending up also - a real problem (or opportunity) for the telecom industry.

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So what's the point?    We all want  it ALL - unlimited data; high speeds and ubiquitous access!  But what to pay?

So ---- back to the Electricity analogy.  Both technologies - Electricity and Internet usage are complicated by what they measure. Afterall, what is a kilowatt hour or a megabyte? Does the average person know what a light bulb (is it 60 or 100 watt?) uses in kilowatt hours, or what  is the data size of an email (does it have attachments?).   Electricity, unlike the internet, doesn't have the added complexity of speed - it's either on or off.
I pay about 8-9 cents per kwh at home for electricity, but think nothing of plugging another appliance in at home when I need it.  At home with a wireline connection I never worry how many people are accessing the internet downloading data because the cost is fixed at $30/mth for "up to" 5mbs speeds.

Outside of the house, I use other people's electricity. Internet users use other people's Wifi network to access data for free (although this is changing as more security is put in place).  However, when I use a wireless device outside of a free Wifi, it costs me about 1 cent per megabyte for data.

I think the telecommunication industry is struggling with how to price access to the internet -  speed (which partially equates to data usage) ;  by data; or by access location.

The telecom industry could take a lesson from the electric utility industry - get the price so low per byte that the consumer forgets to turn off the lights and allows anyone to plug into their outlet.  Forget speed or location - just charge by the byte.

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