I finished a great article about the Random Chance of picking a perfect bracket - "Random chance: America starts filling out March Madness brackets for NCAA Tournament". There are 9.2 quintillion combinations (yes a 9 with 18 zeros) of filling out the bracket. And even simulating low probability events (e.g. #16 seed not winning) or higher probability events (e.g. one of the first four seeds making the final four) doesn't really help much. That is why playing in the pool is as fun as betting on a Las Vegas Roulette wheel.
By the way - the real "gamblers" also are careful about how the brackets are scored. Bonus points for upsets; the multiplier pool (seed number is multiplied by points in the round); greater weight to championship pick; most games picked correctly; and the list goes on and on.
So - here is some advice. If you "lose" (or forecast a loss based on the early rounds) in the bracket pool - just protest that the scoring was not correct. Then figure out what kind of weights and scoring will put you in first and proudly announce that you could have/should have been the winner.
After all good marketing is defining your position relative to the measures you pick. It reminds me of the "spin" in the marketing brochure from HoliMont Ski Resort (after the President's day ski excursion the family did with the Murrays).
By most measures, Garen is the best bracket picker in the NCAA basketball pools he participates in.
"Define the measure - and measure yourself up" :)