Cart before the Horse

A.S. (Vistage) mentioned at the end of my longevity presentation that a book he had just started would be something I would love - that was an understatement - the book "Triumphs of Experience" by George E. Vaillant was a perfect fit for a self help junkie, statistician, with closet interests in demography, anthropology and psychology.  It is a book about the Men of the Harvard Grant Study - the 75 year longitudinal study of 268 Harvard Sophomores.

Vaillant created the "Decathlon of Flourishing" - the set of 10 outcomes (events) that he could objectively measure with the various data collected over the 75 years.  In 2009, the Atlantic asked Vaillant to identify the most important finding of the Grant Study since it's inception.  Vaillant answered, "the only thing that really matters in life are your relations to other people". This book was his follow-up to that "rash answer" that he felt needed "official evidence". 

Luckily Vaillant provides Chapter 2 for the impatient readers which sums up his "ultimate lessons" (so far) of the Grant Study provided below:

Lesson 1 - Positive mental health does exist, and to some degree can be understood independent of moral and cultural biases.

Lesson 2 - Adaptive coping is crucial  [and provides hope in a flourishing life outcome]

Lesson 3 - The most important influence by far on a flourishing life is love.

Lesson 4 - People really can change, and people really can grow.

Lesson 5 - What goes right [the quality of a child's total experience] is more important than what goes wrong [a particular trauma or relationship]

Lesson 6 - If you follow lives long enough, they change, and so do the factors that affect healthy adjustment.

Lesson 7 - Prospective studies really do elucidate life's mysteries.

How ironic that this book touches the very projects I have been investigating (through my Vistage presentations) over the last four years - life purpose, happiness, luck & risk, and longevity.  Lesson 3 and 2, Vaillant calls the two pillars of happiness - Love and finding a way of coping with life that does not push love away. 

Remember ..... ["Only those who understand that happiness is only the cart; love is the horse"]  that the horse comes before the cart!  

Apple Slider

Susan's iphone arrived a couple of days ago.  This tells me that the Apple market share is saturated and is an early indicator that Apple's shine is over. You might want to consider selling the stock.

I am the last holdout and hope for Microsoft in the family. The cool factor of my Window's phone has worn off and I've still not installed Windows 8 on my laptop.  And the hype over the Surface has died down and economic reality sets in - do I really need a tablet/new laptop to replace what I have?

There is just no real technology gadget (or software app) on the horizon that is exciting the marketplace. 

It's hard to pick a side - when both are sliding.


Postscript - AAPL - $500 on 1/18/2013    and   $456.83 on 1/30/2013  -  that's a slide!

Contagious vs Quarantine

So, when are you most contagious? Most experts agree that adults with a cold or the flu start being contagious about a day before they start experiencing symptoms. For the flu, the contagious period then lasts five to seven days into the illness. For children, the contagious period for the flu can last up to two weeks after they start feeling sick, even if they start feeling better before that. The contagious period for a cold lasts about three to four days into the illness. As a general rule, people with a cold are most contagious about three days after their initial exposure to the virus.

How many people really stop their activities for a week and sequestor themselves?  Hence the resaon flu spreads so rapidly.  Feeling well is relative - yes I feel better than Monday but not well enough to chance infecting others.  If this disease was life threatening then more restrictive measures are put in place - Quarantine. 

Quarantine is confused with isolating sick people - instead it is applied to well people who have been exposed to the sick.  So in my case - everyone who I touched, interacted with from Thursday to today would be Quarantined. This would slow the rate of viral spread to others.

Hmmm -  maybe a new facebook application.

Flu Season

The mighty flu bug hit me this season.  How quickly we forget which season we got the flu and which season we skipped.  The news is reporting that this bug may have reached epidemic portions.  There is no recent graph for 2013 yet but the CDC did have a history of seasons on their web site.

Source: CDC

I think I missed 2012 flu season but this year it hit hard - knocking me out Monday and Tuesday completely with no end in sight.  When you mention the flu to anyone there is an immediate backpedal of the observer trying to keep their distance in order to not be infected.  Then the next question out of their mouth is who gave it to you?   That answer is simple - if I had known that ahead of time I would have never gotten the flu!

Back to the BRAT diet for me.  :)

Outwitted

OUTWITTED

 

He drew a circle that shut me out ---

Heretic, rebel, a thing to flout.

But Love and I had the wit to win:

We drew a circle that took him in!

 

 

Edwin Markham

 

 

From "Shoes of Happiness and other Poems"  1913



Back End Employment

This graph from The Atlantic "The Jobs With the Highest and Lowest Unemployment Rates in the U.S." demonstrates what happens in a prolonged recession/deflationary economic time. 

Crime (and fear of crime); Medical/Dental needs from stressed out people overeating and drinking; Need for our healthy pets as companions of comfort; and clergy for emotional/spiritual help;   That covers 8 of the 12 occupations listed.

And if you can't cut it as an engineer or a speech pathologist - there is a back end plan (from the bottom) for all others - Septic Tank Services

Pretty Poor Predictions

The results of the Telecombil/Wisner annual prediction lunch are tabulated- and I was re soundly defeated - 8 to 1 (with one category we will rollover to 2013).

Here were my pretty poor 2012 predictions: 

S&P 500  1157   (actual 1370.92 - lost to 1300)
SVP Partners  20  (actual partner units 24 - lost to 22)
Asset under Management for B.S.  $16M (actual $17M - lost to $17M)
Xtown Shootout - Bearcats (60-45 Bearcats win)
Bengals -  9-7 (actual 10-6 ---  B.S. picked this exactly)
Long Stock Pick GLD (lost to LNG)
Short Stock Pick CRM (lost to DTUL)
Unemployment 7% (lost to 7.5%)
Election  Romney (Obama won)
Superbowl XLVII #47 (NFC -  we rolled this over to 2013)

B.S. has appeased me in playing the predictions game each year since 2000 (for 2011 see 12/23/10 and 2/20/12 for results).  While most years have been close (and required a tie breaker), B.S. has trounced me in 2003 and 2012. 

Next years picks vs B.S. (dare I do this again?):

S&P High  1512 vs 1650
S&P Low   1157 vs 1250
Long Stock Pick  NOK vs QIHU
Short Stock Pick AAPL vs DTUL
Xtown Shootout 2013/2014 Season - Bearcats
Bengals   8-8  vs 9-7
Superbowl XLVII #47 NFC  (Kept the 2012 prediction)
Asset under Mgt  $17.25M vs $18.25
SVP Partners 26 vs 28
Unemployment 6.3% vs 7.5%
Senate Confirms Hagel  Yes
BS moves office out of home  No

Here's hoping for 2013 Fabulous Firstplace Forecasts

Postlog -  Just discovered Real Money Doug Kass Predictions for 2013.  It make my contest look like a kindergarden attempt at predicting.