Thursday, October 4, 2012


My recent posts on birthdays and world population "Billion Person" days continues to intrigue me (naturally I'm a statistician).  I've always loved reading Harry S. Dent's books about the coming booms and crashes based on his study of demographics and U.S. birth rates.  So it was appropriate that I read the Oct. 3, 2012 National Vital Statistics Report on 2011 preliminary Birth data.

So What?

Here is a small sample size to put the chart in perspective.  Susan was born in 1957 (the second highest record year for number of births 4.308 million).  She had her first child (at age 34) Jenna in 1991 (note 1991 was the ninth highest year for births 4.158 million).  I'll spare you the chart of rates of birth by age of women, but it clearly shows highest rates of birth  for women aged 25-34 (no surprise here). 

So we have the big boom - 1954 -1964  -  46.012 million births over a 11 year span

and its Echo  1989 - 1993    -   20.375 million births  over a 5 year span

What kind of sounds will we hear in 2018 - 2020?     Babies crying?

PS -  I'm getting old and telling old blogs (or should I say echoing old blogs).  Just noticed my entry March 19, 2010  Coonskin Hats.  A good statistician would ask - what happened in 2007 with the record number of births 4.317 million?   Maybe some static feedback?

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