Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Efficient Recession

The business cycle is essential for proper balance - it's like yin and yang. So what is the optimal recession - the most efficient recession? It takes at least two quarters of lower GDP to be even considered a recession. Since recessions are considered "bad", then we should only want two quarters -- right? I don't think so.

Attempting to define the most efficient recession assumes something can be done to "control the timing and depth" of a recession. Hence the attempt with government stimulus and Federal Reserve actions. So implicitly we are defining what we view as the most efficient recession - meaning short and thin.

However this is like "squeezing a balloon". The shorter we want it, the deeper it becomes; the thinner we want it, the longer it becomes.

An efficient recession - is exactly what it takes to eliminate the bad habits of inefficient growth during the growth phase. Habits are hard to break.

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