Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Minimize the Downside

From William Bernstein’s book – “The Investor’s ManIfesto  …  Preparing for Prosperity, Armagedddon, and Everything In Between”  - he says:  “Finally, never, ever forget Pascal’s Wager as it applies to investing:  The name of the game is not to get rich, but rather to avoid dying poor.”

P.S. Pascal was a famous French philosopher  and mathematician who defended his belief in GOD with this logic:

 (1) Suppose GOD does not exist ----  The atheist “wins” and the believer “loses”.
or
(2) If GOD does EXIST ---  The believer “wins” and the atheist “loses”

The consequences of being wrong with each belief is starkly different!!!!   [statisticians say - expected value :)  ]

 (1) If GOD does not exist – then all the devout believers lost the opportunity to fornicate, imbibe, and skip a lot of boring church services.

But
(2  If GOD does exist – then the atheist roasts eternally in HELL. 

Therefore:
The rational person thus chooses to believe in GOD.


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