Lets Make a Deal

I DVR'ed the new CBS version "Lets Make a Deal" with Wayne Brady. It just didn't have the same feeling of Monty Hall and Carol Merrill of 1963 vintage. The trouble with trying to "re-live" nostalgia is the inability to re-create the thoughts, feelings and environment of the past.

The deals presented by Wayne Brady just didn't seem to have the punch and impact that watching as a kid in 1963. As a statistician, I know to much now also.

How ironic to just finish reading "A Drunkard's Walk" by Leonard Mlodinow where he describes the reason you should switch doors if asked.

Here's the set up: Suppose behind one door is a car and the other two goats. After picking a door, Monty Hall (who knows what is behind each door) opens one of the two unchosen doors which reveals a goat. He then offers you the chance to switch. Should you?

The answer is: YES - because of Cardano's rule. Because Monty Hall intervened into a "random process" - it is no longer random. The odds are 2-1 that you are in a "wrong guess" scenario and therefore you should switch your choice.