Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Moores Law Ending?

Yes I heard it on Wait Wait don't Tell Me that Radio News Quiz show on NPR.  Moores Law could end in the next 20 years - presumably my life time.  But that is even controversial.  Kurzweil speculates that it is likely that some new type of technology (possibly optical or quantum computers) will replace current integrated-circuit technology, and that Moore's Law will hold true long after 2020.

What is it again --- the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years.  Or in laymans terms the cost of a PC should go down in price AND increase in speed every two years.  This law was introduced in a paper in 1965.  So if it ends in 2030 that would be 65 years.  I guess that is a good age to retire the law.

It is always interesting to find things that act exponentially.  Finding a stock like this would be good!   Just finding a stock with a great compound growth rate would be great.  Albert Einstein supposedly responded that Compound Interest was the greatest invention in human history or the ninth wonder of the world  (it is an urban legend - but note the picture).  So why get greedy - no need for exponential growth like Moores Law  - just give me some 25% compound growth rate -  After all that will never end.




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