Forecasting Error

In today's world of everything being recorded, we begin to see how wrong the expert forecasters and financial talking heads really are.  I just finished watching the Utube clip of Bernanke getting it totally wrong from 2005 to 2007.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INmqvibv4UU

I've noticed in my financial journals many forecasting errors - mine are just not put on CNBC.  Tonight Cramer did a mea culpa on his pre-earnings call recommending Best Buy as a strong buy ---yesterday it dropped 8%. 

And how many people have you talked to about the outlook for the financial markets for 2010?  Any consensus- NOT.
50% say up 50% say down.  .

I forecast that 50% of those predicting will be correct :)